Miami vs Lexington – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football USL Championship
Result
1:1
12/07/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • USL Championship
  • Referee: Osmanovic E. (Usa)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
brazilBrazilDisney+
chileChileDisney+
colombiaColombiaDisney+
mexicoMexicoDisney+
peruPeruDisney+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.960.77
Ball Possession
37%63%
Total shots
1210
Shots on target
53
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
28
Passes
74% (203/274)84% (379/451)
Yellow Cards
22
Expected Goals (xG)
0.960.77
xG on target (xGOT)
0.841.16
Total shots
1210
Shots on target
53
Shots off target
44
Blocked Shots
33
Shots inside the Box
77
Shots outside the Box
53
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
28
Touches in opposition box
1825
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
21
Free Kicks
1713
Passes
74% (203/274)84% (379/451)
Long passes
39% (26/67)55% (31/56)
Passes in final third
60% (41/68)62% (66/107)
Crosses
33% (2/6)29% (6/21)
Expected assists (xA)
1.070.59
Throw-ins
1822
Fouls
1317
Tackles
73% (19/26)58% (7/12)
Duels won
6754
Clearances
4214
Interceptions
69
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
24
xGOT faced
1.160.84
Goals prevented
0.16-0.16

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 24', 1 - 0, Bonfiglio F. ⚽, Melano L. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Hamid B. ↓, Martell R. ↑,
  • 52', Hafferty J. 🟨,
  • 59', Veron D. ↓, Cardona N. ↑,
  • 60', Ajago F. 🟨,
  • 63', Mitrano A. ↓, Celeste F. ↑,
  • 72', Zengue X. ↓, Olney C. ↑,
  • 72', Midence A. ↓, Burke C. ↑,
  • 73', Burks K. ↓, Wu D. ↑,
  • 75', Blanco S. ↓, Bent B. ↑,
  • 75', Melano L. ↓, Lawrence M. ↑,
  • 85', Vazquez C. 🟨,
  • 90+4', 1 - 1, Burke C. ⚽, Sargeant K. (A),
  • 90+6', Celeste F. 🟨,

Highlights

Official Live

Chances of winning


Miami
38.7%		Draw
26.6%		Lexington
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
41% 28.3% 30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6% 28% 31%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Miami has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)
  • Lexington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Miami than the current prediction. (+1.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lexington than the current prediction. (-3.7%)
    •

    Miami - Lexington Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.38 ↑
    (2.25)    		 3.45 ↑
    (3.26)    		 2.64 ↓
    (3)    		 8.9%
    (8.7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    What is the prediction for Miami - Lexington?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Miami (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 11).
    • Miami has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Lexington is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • Lexington may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
    • In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.
    Latest results of Miami
    05.07.2025 Miami - Tulsa 2:2
    21.06.2025 Detroit City - Miami 2:0
    18.06.2025 Miami - Charleston Battery 1:0
    14.06.2025 Tampa Bay Rowdies - Miami 2:1
    07.06.2025 Rhode Island - Miami 0:1
    Latest results of Lexington
    04.07.2025 Phoenix Rising - Lexington 0:1 ✺
    20.06.2025 Lexington - Colorado Springs Switchbacks 2:1 ✺
    14.06.2025 Lexington - New Mexico United 2:1
    07.06.2025 Monterey Bay - Lexington 2:1 ✺
    31.05.2025 Charlotte Independence - Lexington 3:2
    USL Championship Table
    2026

    Eastern Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Charleston00000:000
    2Tampa Bay00000:000
    3Pittsburgh00000:000
    4Indy Eleven00000:000
    5Detroit00000:000
    6Louisville City00000:000
    7Miami FC00000:000
    8Hartford Athletic00000:000
    9Birmingham00000:000
    10Loudoun00000:000
    11Rhode Island00000:000
    12Sporting Jax00000:000
    13Brooklyn00000:000


    Western Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Orange County SC00000:000
    2New Mexico00000:000
    3Sacramento Republic00000:000
    4FC Tulsa00000:000
    5Colorado Springs00000:000
    6San Antonio00000:000
    7Phoenix Rising00000:000
    8Oakland Roots00000:000
    9Monterey Bay00000:000
    10Las Vegas Lights00000:000
    11El Paso00000:000
    12Lexington00000:000

          Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)

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