Miami vs Lexington – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
1:1
12/07/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • USL Championship
  • Referee: Osmanovic E. (Usa)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
brazilBrazilDisney+
chileChileDisney+
colombiaColombiaDisney+
mexicoMexicoDisney+
peruPeruDisney+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.960.77
Ball Possession
37%63%
Total shots
1210
Shots on target
53
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
28
Passes
74% (203/274)84% (379/451)
Yellow Cards
22
Expected Goals (xG)
0.960.77
xG on target (xGOT)
0.841.16
Total shots
1210
Shots on target
53
Shots off target
44
Blocked Shots
33
Shots inside the Box
77
Shots outside the Box
53
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
28
Touches in opposition box
1825
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
21
Free Kicks
1713
Passes
74% (203/274)84% (379/451)
Long passes
39% (26/67)55% (31/56)
Passes in final third
60% (41/68)62% (66/107)
Crosses
33% (2/6)29% (6/21)
Expected assists (xA)
1.070.59
Throw-ins
1822
Fouls
1317
Tackles
73% (19/26)58% (7/12)
Duels won
6754
Clearances
4214
Interceptions
69
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
24
xGOT faced
1.160.84
Goals prevented
0.16-0.16

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 24', 1 - 0, Bonfiglio F. , Melano L. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Hamid B. , Martell R. ,
  • 52', Hafferty J. 🟨,
  • 59', Veron D. , Cardona N. ,
  • 60', Ajago F. 🟨,
  • 63', Mitrano A. , Celeste F. ,
  • 72', Zengue X. , Olney C. ,
  • 72', Midence A. , Burke C. ,
  • 73', Burks K. , Wu D. ,
  • 75', Blanco S. , Bent B. ,
  • 75', Melano L. , Lawrence M. ,
  • 85', Vazquez C. 🟨,
  • 90+4', 1 - 1, Burke C. , Sargeant K. (A),
  • 90+6', Celeste F. 🟨,

Highlights

Official Live

Chances of winning


Miami
38.7%
Draw
26.6%
Lexington
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
41% 28.3% 30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6% 28% 31%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Miami has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)
  • Lexington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Miami than the current prediction. (+1.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lexington than the current prediction. (-3.7%)
  • Miami - Lexington Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.38
    (2.25)
    3.45
    (3.26)
    2.64
    (3)
    8.9%
    (8.7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    What is the prediction for Miami - Lexington?
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Miami (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 11).
    • Miami has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Lexington is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • Lexington may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
    • In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.
    Latest results of Miami
    05.07.2025 Miami - Tulsa 2:2
    21.06.2025 Detroit City - Miami 2:0
    18.06.2025 Miami - Charleston Battery 1:0
    14.06.2025 Tampa Bay Rowdies - Miami 2:1
    07.06.2025 Rhode Island - Miami 0:1
    Latest results of Lexington
    USL Championship Table
    2026

    Eastern Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Tampa Bay541010:3713
    2Louisville City641114:9513
    3Detroit53116:2410
    4Charleston53027:709
    5Miami FC62317:709
    6Hartford Athletic62317:709
    7Indy Eleven52218:628
    8Pittsburgh62138:11-37
    9Brooklyn62045:9-46
    10Rhode Island51227:8-15
    11Birmingham51225:6-15
    12Loudoun50328:11-33
    13Sporting Jax60155:13-81


    Western Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Orange County SC74217:3414
    2El Paso541014:5913
    3San Antonio73315:3212
    4Sacramento Republic62317:439
    5Oakland Roots52217:618
    6New Mexico52035:8-36
    7Phoenix Rising61328:806
    8Colorado Springs51228:9-15
    9Las Vegas Lights61239:11-25
    10Lexington61236:8-25
    11FC Tulsa51224:6-25
    12Monterey Bay60242:9-72

          Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)