Result
 
                    4:3
                
               
                
                                 
                    
                    
                        18/10/2025 at  09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
                    
 
                 
                
                
				
				                
				
				                
                 
                 
                     
                     
                                                -  Serie A Women - Round 3
- Referee: Colelli A. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV: 
                    
|  |  | 
|---|
|  United-kingdom | DAZN | 
 
                     
                  
				
				            
            
            
                            				
                
                
				
				                 
                    
                        Match Stats
                    
                    
                        
                                
|  |  | 
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) | 
|---|
| 2.27 | 1.85 | 
| Ball Possession | 
|---|
| 53% | 47% | 
| Total shots | 
|---|
| 9 | 15 | 
| Shots on target | 
|---|
| 5 | 6 | 
| Big Chances | 
|---|
| 3 | 3 | 
| Corner Kicks | 
|---|
| 5 | 3 | 
| Passes | 
|---|
| 83% (306/367) | 78% (256/327) | 
| Yellow Cards | 
|---|
| 1 | 2 | 
| Expected Goals (xG) | 
|---|
| 2.27 | 1.85 | 
| xG on target (xGOT) | 
|---|
| 3.87 | 2.85 | 
| Total shots | 
|---|
| 9 | 15 | 
| Shots on target | 
|---|
| 5 | 6 | 
| Shots off target | 
|---|
| 2 | 3 | 
| Blocked Shots | 
|---|
| 2 | 6 | 
| Shots inside the Box | 
|---|
| 8 | 8 | 
| Shots outside the Box | 
|---|
| 1 | 7 | 
| Hit the Woodwork | 
|---|
| 0 | 0 | 
| Headed Goals | 
|---|
| 2 | 0 | 
| Big Chances | 
|---|
| 3 | 3 | 
| Corner Kicks | 
|---|
| 5 | 3 | 
| Touches in opposition box | 
|---|
| 24 | 23 | 
| Accurate through passes | 
|---|
| 0 | 0 | 
| Offsides | 
|---|
| 2 | 0 | 
| Free Kicks | 
|---|
| 15 | 5 | 
| Passes | 
|---|
| 83% (306/367) | 78% (256/327) | 
| Long passes | 
|---|
| 41% (15/37) | 43% (20/46) | 
| Passes in final third | 
|---|
| 71% (85/120) | 66% (63/96) | 
| Crosses | 
|---|
| 35% (6/17) | 38% (6/16) | 
| Expected assists (xA) | 
|---|
| 1.89 | 1.51 | 
| Throw-ins | 
|---|
| 19 | 25 | 
| Fouls | 
|---|
| 5 | 15 | 
| Tackles | 
|---|
| 73% (8/11) | 80% (20/25) | 
| Duels won | 
|---|
| 33 | 37 | 
| Clearances | 
|---|
| 23 | 23 | 
| Interceptions | 
|---|
| 12 | 7 | 
| Errors leading to shot | 
|---|
| 0 | 0 | 
| Errors leading to goal | 
|---|
| 0 | 1 | 
| Goalkeeper Saves | 
|---|
| 3 | 1 | 
| xGOT faced | 
|---|
| 2.85 | 3.87 | 
| Goals prevented | 
|---|
| -0.15 | -0.13 | 
                        
                      
                 
				 				 
				 
				                  
                    
                        Key Moments
                    
                    
					    Here there are
                                
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 10', Keijzer M. 🟨, 
- 26', 1 - 0, Severini E. (Pen), 
- 32', 1 - 1, Renzotti M. ⚽, Kyvag T. (A), 
- 37', 1 - 2, Soffia A. ⚽, Kyvag T. (A), 
- 45+1', Bredgaard S. 🟨, 
- 2nd Half (3 - 1)
- 46', Johansen O. ↓, Orsi B. ↑, 
- 58', 2 - 2, Janogy M. ⚽, Snerle E. (A), 
- 61', Keijzer M. ↓, Koivisto E. ↑, 
- 63', Snerle E. ↓, Tryggvadottir K. ↑, 
- 63', Cherubini M. ↓, Bonfantini A. ↑, 
- 72', Piga J. ↓, Cesarini E. ↑, 
- 72', Mascarello M. ↓, Cernoia V. ↑, 
- 77', 2 - 3, Renzotti M. ⚽, 
- 82', Woldvik E. ↓, Lombardi E. ↑, 
- 86', Cernoia V. 🟨, 
- 90', Kyvag T. ↓, Park Soo-Jeong ↑, 
- 90+4', 3 - 3, Janogy M. ⚽, Severini E. (A), 
- 90+7', 4 - 3, Tryggvadottir K. ⚽, 
  
                 
				 				 
				 				 
				 
				 				 
				 
				 
				
				                 
                    
                        Chances of winning
                    
                    
                        
                                
 | Fiorentina 41.5%
 | Draw 26%
 | Milan 32.5%
 | 
Initial Probability
 (when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)Milan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milan than the current prediction. (-1.1%)                        
                      
                 
				 				 
				 
				                  
                    
                        Fiorentina - Milan Odds
                    
                    
                        
                                
            
            
            
			
			
			   |  | 1 | X | 2 | Marga |  | 
			
			
			   | Avarage Now (Initially)
 | 2.21 ↓ (2.22)
 | 3.53 ↓ (3.65)
 | 2.83 ↓ (2.84)
 | 8.9% (7.7%)
 |  | 
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  
                 
				 				 
				 
				 
            
                                
                
                                  
                    
                     Preview Facts
                    
                    
                        
                             - In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 1.
- Fiorentina has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Milan's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Fiorentina may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 27:30. (average 1.4:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Fiorentina won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:13. (average 0.9:1.3).                        
  
                 
                
                                  
                    
                        How many head-to-head matches has Fiorentina won against Milan?
                    
                    
                        
                            Fiorentina has won 4 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
                        
                    
 
                 
                
                
                                  
                    
                        How many head-to-head matches has Milan won against Fiorentina?
                    
                    
                        
                             Milan has won 3 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
                        
                    
 
                 
                
                
                
                                 
                    
                        What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
                    
                    
                    
                        
                            The latest head-to-head matches between Fiorentina - Milan were as follows:
                                                        
                                12.04.2025 
                                Milan 
                                - 
                                Fiorentina 
                                5:3
                            
        
                                                        
                                02.03.2025 
                                Fiorentina 
                                - 
                                Milan 
                                0:0
                            
        
                                                        
                                28.01.2025 
                                Fiorentina 
                                - 
                                Milan 
                                2:0
                            
        
                                                        
                                16.01.2025 
                                Milan 
                                - 
                                Fiorentina 
                                1:1
                            
        
                                                        
                                24.11.2024 
                                Fiorentina 
                                - 
                                Milan 
                                2:2
                            
        
                                                     
                      
                    
                 
                
                
                                
                    
                        Latest results of Fiorentina                    
                    
                    
                 
                                
                                
				
				
				
                
                
                                 
                                 
                			   
			                       
                            
                                                
Italian Serie A Women Table
2025/26|  |  | Pl | W | D | L |  | Diff | Pts | 
| 1 | AS Roma W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:2 | 7 | 9 | 
| 2 | Lazio W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:3 | 1 | 6 | 
| 3 | Napoli W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:6 | 0 | 6 | 
| 4 | Inter W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7:2 | 5 | 5 | 
| 5 | Fiorentina W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6:6 | 0 | 4 | 
| 6 | Juventus W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1:1 | 0 | 4 | 
| 7 | Sassuolo W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 4 | 
| 8 | Parma W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:5 | -3 | 4 | 
| 9 | AC Milan W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:7 | -1 | 3 | 
| 10 | Como W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:3 | -1 | 3 | 
| 11 | Genoa W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 3 | 
| 12 | Ternana W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4:12 | -8 | 0 | 
      Promotion ~ Champions League Women (League phase: )
      Relegation ~ Serie B Women