Result
1:0
27/01/2026 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- League Two - Round 29
- Referee: Hicks C. (Eng)
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.87 | 1.01 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 67% (201/300) | 61% (160/262) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.87 | 1.01 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.14 | 0.27 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 14 | 18 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 67% (201/300) | 61% (160/262) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 33% (22/66) | 29% (22/77) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 41% (38/92) | 48% (51/107) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 13% (2/16) | 15% (2/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.90 | 0.61 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 28 | 35 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 69% (9/13) | 65% (13/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 69 | 61 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 48 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.27 | 1.14 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.27 | 0.14 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 27', Paterson C. 🟨,
- 28', Harbottle R. 🟨,
- 40', Offord L. 🟨,
- 45+7', 1 - 0, Paterson C. ⚽, Collins A. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Matete J. ↓, Kelly L. ↑,
- 63', Harrison E. ↓, Rijks M. ↑,
- 68', Senior J. ↓, Akhamrich Y. ↑,
- 76', Nemane A. ↓, Jones G. ↑,
- 77', Mola C. ↓, Conteh K. ↑,
- 83', Paterson C. ↓, Hogan S. ↑,
- 84', Wiles B. ↓, Lemonheigh-Evans C. ↑,
- 89', Conteh K. 🟨,
- 90', Sparkes J. 🟨,
- 90', Kelly L. 🟨,
- 90+4', Collins A. ↓, Ekpiteta M. ↑,
Chances of winning
Milton Keynes Dons
59.2% | Draw
23.7% | Bristol Rovers
17.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Milton Keynes Dons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Milton Keynes Dons's performance.Bristol Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (-14.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Milton Keynes Dons that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bristol Rovers than the current prediction. (+7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bristol Rovers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Milton Keynes Dons - Bristol Rovers Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.58 ↓
(1.72) |
3.93 ↑
(3.45) |
5.43 ↑
(4.58) |
7.2%
(9.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Milton Keynes Dons - Bristol Rovers?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. MK Dons (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH -1 - MK Dons (2.01) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 1 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH -0.75 - MK Dons (1.73) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - Bristol Rovers (4.15) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Milton Keynes Dons will win
(4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 44.94% – 100%.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 11 high ROI users predict this event. MK Dons (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Bristol Rovers (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ League One and 22).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 3.
- In recent matches, MK Dons has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Bristol Rovers's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- MK Dons may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, MK Dons is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in MK Dons: Collar W.
(Inactive)
Mendez-Laing N.
(Inactive)
Thompson N.
(Inactive)
Tomlinson J.
(Inactive)
Wilson K.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Bristol Rovers: McEachran J.
(Inactive)
Morton C.
(Inactive)
Omochere P.
(Injury)
Southam-Hales M.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in MK Dons: Hepburn-Murphy R.
(Inactive)
Maguire L.
(Inactive)
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:12. (average 1.4:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, MK Dons won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:5. (average 1.6:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Milton Keynes Dons won against Bristol Rovers?
Milton Keynes Dons has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bristol Rovers won against Milton Keynes Dons?
Bristol Rovers has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Milton Keynes Dons - Bristol Rovers were as follows:
11.10.2025
Bristol Rovers
-
Milton Keynes Dons
0:4
04.02.2023
Bristol Rovers
-
Milton Keynes Dons
0:2
13.12.2022
Bristol Rovers
-
Milton Keynes Dons
4:1
11.10.2022
Milton Keynes Dons
-
Bristol Rovers
0:1
Latest results of Milton Keynes Dons
Latest results of Bristol Rovers
English League Two Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bromley | 33 | 18 | 11 | 4 | 56:34 | 22 | 65 |
| 2 | Cambridge Utd | 33 | 18 | 9 | 6 | 48:26 | 22 | 63 |
| 3 | MK Dons | 33 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 62:33 | 29 | 61 |
| 4 | Notts Co | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 52:32 | 20 | 61 |
| 5 | Swindon | 34 | 19 | 4 | 11 | 56:40 | 16 | 61 |
| 6 | Crewe | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 50:40 | 10 | 53 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 33 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 52:43 | 9 | 53 |
| 8 | Salford | 32 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 45:43 | 2 | 52 |
| 9 | Barnet | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 43:37 | 6 | 50 |
| 10 | Walsall | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 40:35 | 5 | 50 |
| 11 | Colchester | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 48:34 | 14 | 49 |
| 12 | Grimsby | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 45:37 | 8 | 49 |
| 13 | Accrington | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 36:34 | 2 | 46 |
| 14 | Fleetwood | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 43:42 | 1 | 44 |
| 15 | Oldham | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 34:30 | 4 | 42 |
| 16 | Gillingham | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 40:41 | -1 | 41 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 33:52 | -19 | 38 |
| 18 | Tranmere | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 45:57 | -12 | 35 |
| 19 | Cheltenham | 32 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 33:54 | -21 | 35 |
| 20 | Bristol Rovers | 33 | 9 | 3 | 21 | 32:56 | -24 | 30 |
| 21 | Crawley | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 33:54 | -21 | 28 |
| 22 | Barrow | 32 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 33:50 | -17 | 27 |
| 23 | Harrogate | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 24:51 | -27 | 26 |
| 24 | Newport | 33 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 32:60 | -28 | 24 |
Promotion ~ League One
Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ National League
