Fortaleza vs Mirassol – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Fortaleza - Mirassol
Result
0:1
24/08/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 21
  • Referee: Vasconcelos B. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
colombiaColombiaWin+ Futbol, Win play
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
usaUsaFanatiz, Fubo Latino 2

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.630.82
Ball Possession
49%51%
Total shots
147
Shots on target
64
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
113
Passes
82% (324/394)83% (372/450)
Yellow Cards
42
Expected Goals (xG)
1.630.82
xG on target (xGOT)
2.551.24
Total shots
147
Shots on target
64
Shots off target
31
Blocked Shots
52
Shots inside the Box
94
Shots outside the Box
53
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
113
Touches in opposition box
3816
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
21
Free Kicks
1314
Passes
82% (324/394)83% (372/450)
Long passes
52% (24/46)48% (20/42)
Passes in final third
77% (113/146)66% (57/86)
Crosses
13% (6/45)25% (3/12)
Expected assists (xA)
0.980.66
Throw-ins
1920
Fouls
1513
Tackles
60% (18/30)75% (15/20)
Duels won
6053
Clearances
2147
Interceptions
98
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
36
xGOT faced
1.242.55
Goals prevented
0.242.55

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 17', 0 - 1, Edson Carioca ,
  • 21', Bareiro A. (Pen),
  • 25', Lucas Ramon 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Pablo Roberto , Pochettino T. ,
  • 62', Bareiro A. 🟨,
  • 63', Lucas Sasha , Yago Pikachu ,
  • 68', Chico , Carlos Eduardo ,
  • 68', Jose Aldo , Chico Kim ,
  • 74', Bruno Pacheco , Weverson ,
  • 74', Bareiro A. , Lucero J. ,
  • 75', Negueba , Yago Felipe ,
  • 75', Edson Carioca , Cristian Renato ,
  • 79', Allanzinho , Marinho ,
  • 87', Neto Moura , Roni ,
  • 88', Joao Victor 🟨,
  • 88', Yago Pikachu 🟨,
  • 90+1', Pereira M. 🟨,
  • 90+4', Marinho 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Fortaleza
34.6%
Draw
31.4%
Mirassol
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
44.7% 29.3% 26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4% 29.8% 25.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fortaleza's form might have worsened.
  • Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mirassol's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+10.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fortaleza, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (-8.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mirassol, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Fortaleza - Mirassol Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.97
    (2.1)
    3.21
    (3.2)
    2.94
    (3.6)
    -1.1%
    (6.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Fortaleza - Mirassol?
  • Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Mirassol will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Mirassol: 25.1%83.9%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Mirassol (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
    • Recent form of Fortaleza has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
    • In recent matches, Mirassol has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Fortaleza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
    • There will not play in Fortaleza: Andrade K. (Yellow Cards) Brenno (Finger Injury) Breno Lopes (Yellow Cards) Britez E. (Yellow Cards) Kuscevic B. (Inactive) Moises (Thigh Injury) Pereira M. (Inactive) Pierre (Inactive) Pochettino T. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Mirassol: Da Silva (Injury) PH (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Fortaleza: Joao Ricardo (Finger Injury)
    • There are questionable in Mirassol: Matheus Sales (Injury) Rafa Silva (Thigh Injury)
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Fortaleza won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Fortaleza - Mirassol were as follows:
    06.04.2025 Mirassol - Fortaleza 1:1
    Latest results of Fortaleza
    16.08.2025 Fluminense - Fortaleza 2:1
    09.08.2025 Fortaleza - Botafogo RJ 0:5
    03.08.2025 Corinthians - Fortaleza 1:1
    Latest results of Mirassol
    18.08.2025 Mirassol - Cruzeiro 1:1
    09.08.2025 Flamengo - Mirassol 2:1
    02.08.2025 Mirassol - Vasco da Gama 3:2
    23.07.2025 Ceará - Mirassol 0:2
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ25167250:123855
    2Palmeiras24164439:192052
    3Cruzeiro26156539:192051
    4Botafogo RJ27127837:231443
    5Mirassol251110442:251743
    6Bahia25117733:30340
    7Fluminense25115933:31238
    8Sao Paulo26108829:25438
    9Bragantino26961132:38-633
    10Gremio2689928:32-433
    11Internacional26881032:38-632
    12Ceara25871023:24-131
    13Vasco26861238:38030
    14Corinthians26791026:32-630
    15Atletico-MG25781022:29-729
    16Santos25771125:35-1028
    17Vitoria265101121:38-1725
    18Juventude25651420:46-2623
    19Fortaleza25561424:40-1621
    20Sport Recife24291318:37-1915

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet