Fortaleza vs Mirassol – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Fortaleza - Mirassol
Result
0:1
24/08/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 21
  • Referee: Vasconcelos B. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
colombiaColombiaWin+ Futbol, Win play
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
usaUsaFanatiz, Fubo Latino 2

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.630.82
Ball Possession
49%51%
Total shots
147
Shots on target
64
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
113
Passes
82% (324/394)83% (372/450)
Yellow Cards
42
Expected Goals (xG)
1.630.82
xG on target (xGOT)
2.551.24
Total shots
147
Shots on target
64
Shots off target
31
Blocked Shots
52
Shots inside the Box
94
Shots outside the Box
53
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
113
Touches in opposition box
3816
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
21
Free Kicks
1314
Passes
82% (324/394)83% (372/450)
Long passes
52% (24/46)48% (20/42)
Passes in final third
77% (113/146)66% (57/86)
Crosses
13% (6/45)25% (3/12)
Expected assists (xA)
0.980.66
Throw-ins
1920
Fouls
1513
Tackles
60% (18/30)75% (15/20)
Duels won
6053
Clearances
2147
Interceptions
98
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
36
xGOT faced
1.242.55
Goals prevented
0.242.55

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 17', 0 - 1, Edson Carioca ,
  • 21', Bareiro A. (Pen),
  • 25', Lucas Ramon 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Pablo Roberto , Pochettino T. ,
  • 62', Bareiro A. 🟨,
  • 63', Lucas Sasha , Yago Pikachu ,
  • 68', Chico , Carlos Eduardo ,
  • 68', Jose Aldo , Chico Kim ,
  • 74', Bruno Pacheco , Weverson ,
  • 74', Bareiro A. , Lucero J. ,
  • 75', Negueba , Yago Felipe ,
  • 75', Edson Carioca , Cristian Renato ,
  • 79', Allanzinho , Marinho ,
  • 87', Neto Moura , Roni ,
  • 88', Joao Victor 🟨,
  • 88', Yago Pikachu 🟨,
  • 90+1', Pereira M. 🟨,
  • 90+4', Marinho 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Fortaleza
34.6%
Draw
31.4%
Mirassol
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
44.7% 29.3% 26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4% 29.8% 25.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fortaleza's form might have worsened.
  • Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mirassol's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+10.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fortaleza, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (-8.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mirassol, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Fortaleza - Mirassol Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.97
    (2.1)
    3.21
    (3.2)
    2.94
    (3.6)
    -1.1%
    (6.6%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    What is the prediction for Fortaleza - Mirassol?
  • Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Mirassol will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Mirassol: 25.1%83.9%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Mirassol (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
    • Recent form of Fortaleza has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
    • In recent matches, Mirassol has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Fortaleza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
    • There will not play in Fortaleza: Andrade K. (Yellow Cards) Brenno (Finger Injury) Breno Lopes (Yellow Cards) Britez E. (Yellow Cards) Kuscevic B. (Inactive) Moises (Thigh Injury) Pereira M. (Inactive) Pierre (Inactive) Pochettino T. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Mirassol: Da Silva (Injury) PH (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Fortaleza: Joao Ricardo (Finger Injury)
    • There are questionable in Mirassol: Matheus Sales (Injury) Rafa Silva (Thigh Injury)
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Fortaleza won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Fortaleza - Mirassol were as follows:
    06.04.2025 Mirassol - Fortaleza 1:1
    Latest results of Fortaleza
    16.08.2025 Fluminense - Fortaleza 2:1
    09.08.2025 Fortaleza - Botafogo RJ 0:5
    03.08.2025 Corinthians - Fortaleza 1:1
    Latest results of Mirassol
    18.08.2025 Mirassol - Cruzeiro 1:1
    09.08.2025 Flamengo - Mirassol 2:1
    02.08.2025 Mirassol - Vasco da Gama 3:2
    23.07.2025 Ceará - Mirassol 0:2
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Palmeiras28194553:262761
    2Flamengo RJ28187356:154161
    3Cruzeiro29168542:212156
    4Mirassol301510552:312155
    5Bahia30147940:34649
    6Botafogo RJ29137939:261346
    7Fluminense291351136:35144
    8Sao Paulo301181133:33041
    9Vasco291161246:41539
    10Corinthians301091132:35-339
    11Bragantino291061334:44-1036
    12Atletico-MG29991127:32-536
    13Gremio29991130:37-736
    14Ceara29981227:28-135
    15Internacional30981335:43-835
    16Santos28871328:40-1231
    17Vitoria307101327:44-1731
    18Juventude29751723:53-3026
    19Fortaleza28661626:44-1824
    20Sport Recife292111622:46-2417

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet