Result
3:0
19/10/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 29
- Referee: Delgado M. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 1 |
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Israel | Sport 3 |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 5 |
 Spain | M+ Liga de Campeones |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.14 | 0.45 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 40% | 60% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (295/350) | 89% (460/517) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.14 | 0.45 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.27 | 1.05 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (295/350) | 89% (460/517) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (17/32) | 58% (19/33) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (44/63) | 79% (114/144) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 40% (4/10) | 13% (4/30) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.88 | 0.77 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 12 | 30 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 79% (11/14) | 50% (4/8) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 38 | 30 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 38 | 12 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.05 | 3.27 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.05 | 0.27 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 1', 1 - 0, Alesson ⚽, Reinaldo (A),
- 33', Diaz E. 🟨,
- 35', 2 - 0, Reinaldo (Pen),
- 40', Ferraresi N. 🟨,
- 45', Carlos Eduardo 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 69', 3 - 0, Carlos Eduardo (Pen),
- 73', Lucas Moura ↓, Rigoni E. ↑,
- 73', Tapia G. ↓, Luciano ↑,
- 73', Cristian Renato ↓, Renato Marques ↑,
- 77', Carlos Eduardo ↓, Matheus Bianqui ↑,
- 77', Guilherme ↓, Shaylon ↑,
- 81', Maik ↓, Mailton ↑,
- 81', Marcos Antonio ↓, Alisson ↑,
- 83', Robert Arboleda 🟨,
- 87', Neto Moura 🟨,
- 89', Neto Moura ↓, Jose Aldo ↑,
- 89', Alesson ↓, Yago Felipe ↑,
- 90+2', Yago Felipe 🟨,
Chances of winning
Mirassol
41.6% | Draw
30.6% | São Paulo
27.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (+0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+0.4%)
Mirassol - São Paulo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.31 ↑
(2.3) |
3.21 ↑
(3.1) |
3.63 ↑
(3.25) |
1.9%
(6.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Mirassol - São Paulo?
Users Predictions:
18 users predict this event. Mirassol will win (votes: 10 - 55.6%). São Paulo will win (votes: 2 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mirassol: 32.6% – 78.6%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Mirassol (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mirassol won 1.
- Recent performances by Mirassol have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- São Paulo has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- São Paulo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Mirassol is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Mirassol: Alex Muralha
(Yellow Cards)
Chico
(Inactive)
Edson Carioca
(Muscle Injury)
Lucas Ramon
(Inactive)
Negueba
(Yellow Cards)
PH
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva
(Knee Injury)
Diaz E.
(Hip Injury)
Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Luan Silva
(Muscle Injury)
Oscar
(Calf Injury)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
Soares C.
(Toe Injury)
Toloi R.
(Hamstring Injury)
- There are questionable in Mirassol: Da Silva
(Injury)
Gabriel
(Injury)
Matheus Sales
(Injury)
- There are questionable in São Paulo: Wendell
(Injury)
- In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Mirassol won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:25. (average 1:2.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Mirassol won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.5:1.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Mirassol won against São Paulo?
Mirassol has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Mirassol?
São Paulo has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Mirassol - São Paulo were as follows:
24.05.2025
São Paulo
-
Mirassol
0:2
05.02.2025
São Paulo
-
Mirassol
4:1
23.01.2024
Mirassol
-
São Paulo
1:1
Latest results of Mirassol
Latest results of São Paulo
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 28 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 53:26 | 27 | 61 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 28 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 56:15 | 41 | 61 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 42:21 | 21 | 56 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 52:31 | 21 | 55 |
| 5 | Bahia | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 40:32 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Botafogo RJ | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 39:26 | 13 | 46 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 36:35 | 1 | 44 |
| 8 | Vasco | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 46:41 | 5 | 39 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 31:33 | -2 | 38 |
| 11 | Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 34:44 | -10 | 36 |
| 12 | Atletico-MG | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 27:32 | -5 | 36 |
| 13 | Gremio | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 30:37 | -7 | 36 |
| 14 | Ceara | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 27:28 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Internacional | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 35 |
| 16 | Santos | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 28:40 | -12 | 31 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 27:44 | -17 | 31 |
| 18 | Juventude | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 23:53 | -30 | 26 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 26:44 | -18 | 24 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 29 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 22:46 | -24 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
