Mirassol vs São Paulo – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Mirassol - São Paulo
Result
3:0
19/10/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 29
  • Referee: Delgado M. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 1
ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
israelIsraelSport 3
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 5
spainSpainM+ Liga de Campeones
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
3.140.45
Ball Possession
40%60%
Total shots
1110
Shots on target
83
Big Chances
60
Corner Kicks
37
Passes
84% (295/350)89% (460/517)
Yellow Cards
33
Expected Goals (xG)
3.140.45
xG on target (xGOT)
3.271.05
Total shots
1110
Shots on target
83
Shots off target
35
Blocked Shots
02
Shots inside the Box
85
Shots outside the Box
35
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
60
Corner Kicks
37
Touches in opposition box
1716
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
05
Free Kicks
1711
Passes
84% (295/350)89% (460/517)
Long passes
53% (17/32)58% (19/33)
Passes in final third
70% (44/63)79% (114/144)
Crosses
40% (4/10)13% (4/30)
Expected assists (xA)
0.880.77
Throw-ins
1230
Fouls
1117
Tackles
79% (11/14)50% (4/8)
Duels won
3830
Clearances
3812
Interceptions
96
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
35
xGOT faced
1.053.27
Goals prevented
1.050.27

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 1', 1 - 0, Alesson , Reinaldo (A),
  • 33', Diaz E. 🟨,
  • 35', 2 - 0, Reinaldo (Pen),
  • 40', Ferraresi N. 🟨,
  • 45', Carlos Eduardo 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 69', 3 - 0, Carlos Eduardo (Pen),
  • 73', Lucas Moura , Rigoni E. ,
  • 73', Tapia G. , Luciano ,
  • 73', Cristian Renato , Renato Marques ,
  • 77', Carlos Eduardo , Matheus Bianqui ,
  • 77', Guilherme , Shaylon ,
  • 81', Maik , Mailton ,
  • 81', Marcos Antonio , Alisson ,
  • 83', Robert Arboleda 🟨,
  • 87', Neto Moura 🟨,
  • 89', Neto Moura , Jose Aldo ,
  • 89', Alesson , Yago Felipe ,
  • 90+2', Yago Felipe 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Mirassol
41.6%
Draw
30.6%
São Paulo
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
40.8% 30.3% 28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8% 29.6% 28.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)
  • São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (+0.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+0.4%)
  • Mirassol - São Paulo Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.31
    (2.3)
    3.21
    (3.1)
    3.63
    (3.25)
    1.9%
    (6.5%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
    What is the prediction for Mirassol - São Paulo?
  • Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Mirassol will win (votes: 10 - 55.6%). São Paulo will win (votes: 2 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 33.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Mirassol: 32.6%78.6%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Mirassol (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mirassol won 1.
    • Recent performances by Mirassol have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • São Paulo has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • São Paulo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Mirassol is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Mirassol: Alex Muralha (Yellow Cards) Chico (Inactive) Edson Carioca (Muscle Injury) Lucas Ramon (Inactive) Negueba (Yellow Cards) PH (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva (Knee Injury) Diaz E. (Hip Injury) Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Luan Silva (Muscle Injury) Oscar (Calf Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury) Soares C. (Toe Injury) Toloi R. (Hamstring Injury)
    • There are questionable in Mirassol: Da Silva (Injury) Gabriel (Injury) Matheus Sales (Injury)
    • There are questionable in São Paulo: Wendell (Injury)
    • In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Mirassol won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:25. (average 1:2.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Mirassol won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.5:1.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Mirassol - São Paulo were as follows:
    24.05.2025 São Paulo - Mirassol 0:2
    05.02.2025 São Paulo - Mirassol 4:1
    23.01.2024 Mirassol - São Paulo 1:1
    Latest results of Mirassol
    Latest results of São Paulo
    16.10.2025 Grêmio - São Paulo 2:0
    05.10.2025 São Paulo - Palmeiras 2:3
    02.10.2025 Fortaleza - São Paulo 0:2
    29.09.2025 São Paulo - Ceará 0:1
    25.09.2025 São Paulo - LDU Quito 0:1
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Palmeiras28194553:262761
    2Flamengo RJ28187356:154161
    3Cruzeiro29168542:212156
    4Mirassol301510552:312155
    5Bahia29147840:32849
    6Botafogo RJ29137939:261346
    7Fluminense291351136:35144
    8Vasco291161246:41539
    9Corinthians301091132:35-339
    10Sao Paulo291081131:33-238
    11Bragantino291061334:44-1036
    12Atletico-MG29991127:32-536
    13Gremio29991130:37-736
    14Ceara29981227:28-135
    15Internacional30981335:43-835
    16Santos28871328:40-1231
    17Vitoria307101327:44-1731
    18Juventude29751723:53-3026
    19Fortaleza28661626:44-1824
    20Sport Recife292111622:46-2417

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet