Morecambe vs Carlisle United: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

12/04/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

The Mazuma Stadium (Morecambe).

: League Two - Round 42
Referee: Toner B. (Eng)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.03	0.91
Ball Possession
52%	48%
Total shots
12	8
Shots on target
3	3
Big Chances
2	4
Corner Kicks
6	6
Passes
60% (175/294)	56% (156/278)
Yellow Cards
1	2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.03	0.91
xG on target (xGOT)
0.30	1.78
Total shots
12	8
Shots on target
3	3
Shots off target
6	3
Blocked Shots
3	2
Shots inside the Box
8	6
Shots outside the Box
4	2
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
0	1
Big Chances
2	4
Corner Kicks
6	6
Touches in opposition box
25	15
Offsides
4	2
Free Kicks
21	15
Passes
60% (175/294)	56% (156/278)
Long passes
28% (28/99)	32% (30/93)
Passes in final third
49% (70/144)	43% (53/122)
Crosses
42% (10/24)	31% (5/16)
Expected assists (xA)
0.58	0.89
Fouls
15	21
Tackles
63% (10/16)	69% (11/16)
Duels won
74	67
Clearances Total
28	38
Interceptions
3	7
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	3
xGOT faced
1.78	0.30
Goals prevented
-0.22	0.30

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Kelly G. ⚽, Ellis J. (A),
36', Angol L. 🟨,
38', Whelan C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Tutonda D. ↓, Taylor M. ↑,
46', Hope H. ↓, Lewis P. ↑,
46', Dallas A. ↓, Tollitt B. ↑,
46', Williams R. ↓, Fairclough A. ↑,
60', 0 - 2, Thomas T. ⚽,
71', White T. ↓, Dackers M. ↑,
75', Breeze G. 🟨,
76', Fusire S. ↓, Vela J. ↑,
80', Dennis M. ↓, Hugill J. ↑,
89', Wearne S. ↓, Guy C. ↑,
89', Whelan C. ↓, Bevan J. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Morecambe
41.9%

Draw
26.2%

Carlisle United
31.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

27.5%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

26.3%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Morecambe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Morecambe - Carlisle United Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.32)	3.55 ↑ (3.41)	2.98 ↑ (2.92)	6.2% (6.8%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

Preview Facts

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 24 in the zone Relegation ~ National League).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Morecambe won 2.
Two teams are playing changeable.
The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.
There will not play in Morecambe: Edwards G. (Injury) Hendrie L. (Inactive) Macadam H. (Inactive) Moore S. (Injury) Ray G. (Lacking Match Fitness)
There will not play in Carlisle: Davies A. (Injury) Dummett P. (Hamstring Injury) Embleton E. (Red Card) Jones J. (Inactive) McGeouch D. (Inactive) Williams J. (Injury) Wyke Ch. (Broken ankle)
There are questionable in Morecambe: Millen R. (Inactive)
There are questionable in Carlisle: Dennis M. (Inactive) Harper C. (Injury) Hayden A. (Inactive) Lavelle S. (Injury)
Last 20 head-to-head matches Morecambe won 5 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 24:30 (average 1.2:1.5).
Including matches at home between the teams Morecambe won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 10:17 (average 0.9:1.5).

How many head-to-head matches has Morecambe won against Carlisle United?

Morecambe has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Carlisle United won against Morecambe?

Carlisle United has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Morecambe - Carlisle United were as follows:

26.12.2024 Carlisle United - Morecambe 0:1

12.11.2024 Morecambe - Carlisle United 1:2

Latest results of Morecambe

05.04.2025 Grimsby Town - Morecambe 3:1 ✺

01.04.2025 Morecambe - Cheltenham Town 2:0 ✺

29.03.2025 Morecambe - Swindon Town 1:0 ✺

22.03.2025 Port Vale - Morecambe 1:0 ✺

15.03.2025 Morecambe - Barrow 2:2 ✺

Latest results of Carlisle United

05.04.2025 Carlisle United - Newport County 3:2 ✺

01.04.2025 Chesterfield - Carlisle United 2:1 ✺

29.03.2025 Doncaster Rovers - Carlisle United 3:0 ✺

25.03.2025 Carlisle United - Milton Keynes Dons 2:2 ✺

22.03.2025 Carlisle United - Bromley 2:1 ✺

English League Two Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Colchester	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
2	Bristol Rovers	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
3	Cheltenham	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
4	Crewe	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
5	Gillingham	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
6	Oldham	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Swindon	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Tranmere	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	Walsall	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	Accrington	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	Barnet	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Chesterfield	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
13	Grimsby	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
14	MK Dons	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
15	Notts Co	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Shrewsbury	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
17	Cambridge Utd	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
18	Crawley	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
19	Barrow	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
20	Bromley	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
21	Newport	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
22	Harrogate	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
23	Fleetwood	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
24	Salford	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

      Promotion ~ League Two
      Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
      Relegation ~ National League

Which TV channels are streaming of Morecambe - Carlisle United?

It is being streamed on various channels, including: