Result
1:1
07/03/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 25
- Referee: Torres M. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Portugal | TVI, V+ TVI |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.94 | 1.35 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 20 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (303/377) | 80% (348/434) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.94 | 1.35 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.78 | 2.01 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 20 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 13 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 0 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 24 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (303/377) | 80% (348/434) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 45% (29/65) | 34% (16/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 60% (45/75) | 60% (81/134) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (3/15) | 21% (6/28) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.70 | 0.60 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 15 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 89% (8/9) | 70% (14/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 41 | 53 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 43 | 8 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.01 | 0.78 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.01 | -0.22 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 45+7', 1 - 0, Semedo L. ⚽, Travassos (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 48', Travassos 🟨,
- 55', Leo Santos 🟨,
- 64', Rodri ↓, John N. ↑,
- 67', 1 - 1, Baeza M. ⚽, Nunez A. (A),
- 69', Gabriel Veron ↓, Pablo Ruan ↑,
- 70', Santos L. 🟨,
- 76', Alanzinho ↓, Landerson ↑,
- 76', Kiko Bondoso ↓, Gower J. ↑,
- 84', Ramirez J. ↓, Joao L. ↑,
- 84', Santos L. ↓, Kevyn Monteiro ↑,
- 90', Baeza M. ↓, Daniel Junior ↑,
- 90+3', Liziero 🟨,
- 90+3', John N. 🟨,
- 90+5', Batista G. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Moreirense
37.9% | Draw
29.6% | Nacional
32.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Moreirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)The ML Model estimate for Moreirense aligns with the current prediction.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+0.1%)
Moreirense - Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.49 ↑
(2.32) |
3.18 ↓
(3.25) |
2.92 ↓
(3.1) |
5.8%
(6.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Moreirense - Nacional?
Users Predictions:
16 users predict this event. Moreirense will win (votes: 8 - 50%). Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Moreirense: 25.5% – 74.5%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Moreirense (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 7 and 14).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 2.
- Recent form of Moreirense has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Nacional has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Moreirense: Caio
(Inactive)
Michel
(Inactive)
Sousa V.
(Leg Injury)
- There will not play in Nacional: Aurelio J.
(Inactive)
Fernandes I.
(Injury)
Lucas Franca
(Inactive)
Soares F.
(Injury)
Ulisses
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Moreirense: Yan Maranhao
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 13 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 34:17. (average 1.7:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Moreirense won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:10. (average 2:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Moreirense won against Nacional?
Moreirense has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Moreirense?
Nacional has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Moreirense - Nacional were as follows:
04.10.2025
Nacional
-
Moreirense
3:2
27.04.2025
Moreirense
-
Nacional
1:1
14.12.2024
Nacional
-
Moreirense
1:0
18.03.2023
Nacional
-
Moreirense
0:2
09.10.2022
Moreirense
-
Nacional
3:1
Latest results of Moreirense
Latest results of Nacional
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 27 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 54:11 | 43 | 72 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 68:15 | 53 | 65 |
| 3 | Benfica | 27 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 58:17 | 41 | 65 |
| 4 | Braga | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 53:27 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 33:22 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 39:28 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Estoril | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 48:44 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 31:39 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29:42 | -13 | 32 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 28:46 | -18 | 30 |
| 11 | Alverca | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 27:45 | -18 | 29 |
| 12 | Arouca | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 34:55 | -21 | 29 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 24:31 | -7 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 33:45 | -12 | 28 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 26:48 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Nacional | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 29:39 | -10 | 22 |
| 17 | Tondela | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 19:39 | -20 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 27 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 18:58 | -40 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
