Result
2:0
05/10/2025 at 08:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ekstraklasa - Round 11
- Referee: Kos D. (Pol)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Canada | beIN Connect |
 Poland | CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV |
 Usa | beIN Connect, Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.50 | 0.38 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (433/503) | 82% (348/422) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.50 | 0.38 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.20 | 1.39 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 16 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 34 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (433/503) | 82% (348/422) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 58% (30/52) | 56% (18/32) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 79% (141/179) | 68% (63/93) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 31% (5/16) | 11% (2/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.81 | 0.53 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 35% (6/17) | 52% (12/23) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 21 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.39 | 2.20 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.39 | 0.20 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 19', Ede B. 🟨,
- 26', Rodrigues I. 🟨,
- 45+1', 1 - 0, Brunes J. (Pen),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Ede B. ↓, Najemski A. ↑,
- 54', Svarnas S. 🟨,
- 57', 2 - 0, Brunes J. ⚽, Pienko T. (A),
- 61', Rodrigues I. ↓, Scalet M. ↑,
- 61', van Hoeven B. ↓, Krol M. ↑,
- 70', Repka O. ↓, Barath P. ↑,
- 70', Diaby-Fadiga L. ↓, Bulat M. ↑,
- 71', Labojko J. ↓, Samper S. ↑,
- 76', Dadashov R. 🟨,
- 81', Pienko T. ↓, Makuch P. ↑,
- 81', Brunes J. ↓, Rondic I. ↑,
- 84', Dadashov R. ↓, Lewandowski F. ↑,
- 88', Seck I. ↓, Konstantopoulos A. ↑,
- 90+3', Tudor F. 🟥,
Chances of winning
Raków Częstochowa
60.5% | Draw
22.4% | Motor Lublin
17.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Raków Częstochowa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)Motor Lublin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (+7.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Raków Częstochowa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Motor Lublin than the current prediction. (-3%)
Raków Częstochowa - Motor Lublin Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.54 ↑
(1.46) |
4.14 ↓
(4.52) |
5.51 ↓
(6.28) |
7.2%
(6.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Raków Częstochowa - Motor Lublin?
Users Predictions:
16 users predict this event. Raków will win (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Motor will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Raków: 46.1% – 91.5%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.5 - Raków (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Raków Częstochowa will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Raków (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Motor (votes: 1 - 16.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 14 and 13)
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Motor may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Raków has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Raków is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Raków: Adriano
(Yellow Cards)
Arsenic Z.
(Injury)
Kochergin V.
(Knee Injury)
Otieno E.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
- There are questionable in Raków: Lopez I.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Motor: Najemski A.
(Knee Injury)
Ndiaye M.
(Injury)
Plichta K.
(Inactive)
- In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Raków won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:2. (average 2.3:0.7).
- Including home match between the teams, Raków won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.
How many head-to-head matches has Raków Częstochowa won against Motor Lublin?
Raków Częstochowa has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Motor Lublin won against Raków Częstochowa?
Motor Lublin has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Raków Częstochowa - Motor Lublin were as follows:
07.12.2024
Raków Częstochowa
-
Motor Lublin
2:2
21.07.2024
Motor Lublin
-
Raków Częstochowa
0:2
01.03.2023
Motor Lublin
-
Raków Częstochowa
0:3
Latest results of Raków Częstochowa
Latest results of Motor Lublin
Polish Ekstraklasa Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Jagiellonia | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 37:24 | 13 | 37 |
| 2 | Zaglebie | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 35:27 | 8 | 35 |
| 3 | Lech Poznan | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 36:31 | 5 | 35 |
| 4 | Gornik Zabrze | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 32:28 | 4 | 34 |
| 5 | Rakow | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 28:25 | 3 | 34 |
| 6 | Wisla Plock | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 24:18 | 6 | 33 |
| 7 | Cracovia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 27:22 | 5 | 33 |
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 27:24 | 3 | 30 |
| 9 | Radomiak Radom | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 36:33 | 3 | 28 |
| 10 | Pogon Szczecin | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 32:35 | -3 | 28 |
| 11 | Lechia Gdansk | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 44:43 | 1 | 27 |
| 12 | GKS Katowice | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 28:31 | -3 | 27 |
| 13 | Motor Lublin | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 30:37 | -7 | 27 |
| 14 | Piast Gliwice | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 23:26 | -3 | 26 |
| 15 | Arka Gdynia | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 19:36 | -17 | 25 |
| 16 | Legia | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 25:27 | -2 | 24 |
| 17 | Widzew Lodz | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 29:32 | -3 | 24 |
| 18 | Termalica B-B | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 26:39 | -13 | 21 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Division 1
