Result
2:2
20/09/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 29
- Referee: Congo F. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Teleamazonas, Zapping |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.26 | 0.91 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 45% | 55% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (252/317) | 82% (320/391) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.26 | 0.91 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.48 | 1.97 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 0 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 14 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (252/317) | 82% (320/391) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (31/59) | 55% (35/64) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 67% (59/88) | 62% (65/105) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (4/16) | 33% (5/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.52 | 0.74 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 13 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (10/16) | 67% (6/9) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 40 | 33 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.97 | 1.48 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.03 | -0.52 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 17', 0 - 1, Arroyo J. P. ⚽, Pata E. (A),
- 28', Velasco A. 🟨,
- 35', 1 - 1, Orejuela C. ⚽, Penilla C. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 49', Mina G. 🟨,
- 53', Mendez J. 🟨,
- 63', Cazares ↓, Sornoza J. ↑,
- 63', Mendez J. ↓, Alcivar J. ↑,
- 71', Penilla C. ↓, Verges J. ↑,
- 71', Gracia A. ↓, Burbano R. ↑,
- 73', Vasquez Y. ↓, Spinelli C. ↑,
- 73', Arroyo J. P. ↓, Ibarra R. ↑,
- 80', Dos Santos J. ↓, Delgado B. ↑,
- 80', Pata E. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
- 83', 1 - 2, Spinelli C. ⚽, Rodriguez A. (A),
- 88', Bentaberry B. ↓, Chala Rosales W. J. ↑,
- 89', Orejuela C. 🟨,
- 90+9', 2 - 2, Burbano R. (Pen),
- 90+17', Guagua D. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Mushuc Runa
30.1% | Draw
30.6% | Independiente del Valle
39.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mushuc Runa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mushuc Runa's performance.Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Independiente del Valle might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (-8.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mushuc Runa that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (+13.1%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Independiente del Valle could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Mushuc Runa - Independiente del Valle Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.09 ↓
(4.1) |
3.07 ↓
(3.4) |
2.39 ↑
(1.83) |
6.7%
(8.4%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Mushuc Runa - Independiente del Valle?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Ind del Valle (votes: 2 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Independiente del Valle will win
(4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 44.94% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).
- Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
- Ind del Valle is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 0.
- Mushuc Runa has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Ind del Valle is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Ind del Valle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 21:35. (average 1.1:1.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Mushuc Runa won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 12:19. (average 1.2:1.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Mushuc Runa won against Independiente del Valle?
Mushuc Runa has won 1 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Independiente del Valle won against Mushuc Runa?
Independiente del Valle has won 6 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Mushuc Runa - Independiente del Valle were as follows:
19.08.2025
Mushuc Runa
-
Independiente del Valle
2:2
12.08.2025
Independiente del Valle
-
Mushuc Runa
1:0
23.05.2025
Independiente del Valle
-
Mushuc Runa
2:1
05.10.2024
Mushuc Runa
-
Independiente del Valle
1:1
18.04.2024
Independiente del Valle
-
Mushuc Runa
2:1
Latest results of Mushuc Runa
Latest results of Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. del Valle ✔ | 29 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 55:23 | 32 | 63 |
| 2 | Barcelona SC ✔ | 29 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 45:32 | 13 | 53 |
| 3 | LDU Quito | 29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 45:30 | 15 | 48 |
| 4 | U. Catolica | 29 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 56:38 | 18 | 46 |
| 5 | Dep. Cuenca | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 34:27 | 7 | 46 |
| 6 | Orense | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 34:32 | 2 | 46 |
| 7 | Libertad | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 41:36 | 5 | 43 |
| 8 | Emelec | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 41 |
| 9 | Aucas | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 37:40 | -3 | 40 |
| 10 | Macara ✔ | 29 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 29:29 | 0 | 35 |
| 11 | EL Nacional ✔ | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 32:41 | -9 | 34 |
| 12 | Delfin | 29 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 26:42 | -16 | 30 |
| 13 | Tecnico U | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 25:43 | -18 | 28 |
| 14 | Vinotinto | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 34:42 | -8 | 27 |
| 15 | Manta | 29 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 33:50 | -17 | 26 |
| 16 | Mushuc Runa ✔ | 29 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 33:50 | -17 | 24 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Ind. del Valle is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
Barcelona SC is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
Macara is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
EL Nacional is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
