Result
2:2 penalties
19/08/2025 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - 1/8-finals
- Referee: Batista E. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | DirecTV Sports |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD |
 Australia | Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect |
 Belarus | Okko Sport |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Canada | beIN Connect |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Ecuador | DirecTV Sports |
 Indonesia | Mola TV |
 Italy | Como TV |
 Malaysia | Mola |
 New-zealand | beIN Connect |
 Peru | DirecTV Sports, Disney+ |
 South-america | DGO Latin America, ESPN 2 South |
 Spain | LaLiga+ app, LaLiga+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | DirecTV Sports, Disney+, Inter |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.60 | 1.83 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 28% | 72% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 67% (110/164) | 89% (373/420) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.60 | 1.83 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.19 | 0.67 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 11 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 16 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 9 | 25 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 67% (110/164) | 89% (373/420) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 31% (12/39) | 72% (31/43) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 33% (14/43) | 76% (68/90) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (3/9) | 19% (7/36) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.36 | 0.89 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 60% (6/10) | 83% (5/6) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 36 | 37 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 27 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.67 | 1.19 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.33 | -0.81 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 11', Chala Rosales W. J. 🟨,
- 11', Carabajal M. 🟨,
- 24', Gracia A. 🟨,
- 45+2', 1 - 0, Chala Rosales W. J. ⚽, Verges J. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Davila E. ↓, Arce L. ↑,
- 46', Verges J. ↓, Penilla C. ↑,
- 61', Quintero D. 🟨,
- 65', Arce L. 🟨,
- 71', 2 - 0, Penilla C. ⚽, Gracia A. (A),
- 73', Guagua D. ↓, Mercado P. ↑,
- 73', Cortez G. ↓, Hoyos M. ↑,
- 73', Cazares ↓, Sornoza J. ↑,
- 80', Orejuela C. ↓, Burbano R. ↑,
- 81', Ibarra R. ↓, Santamaria T. ↑,
- 90', Formento R. 🟨,
- 90+1', Fernandez M. ↓, Vasquez Y. ↑,
- 90+1', Gracia A. ↓, Mina G. ↑,
- 90+4', Dos Santos J. 🟨,
- 90+4', Dos Santos J. ↓, Delgado B. ↑,
- 90+10', 2 - 1, Hoyos M. ⚽, Santamaria T. (A),
- 90+11', Hoyos M. 🟨,
- Penalties (2 - 4)
- 1, Penilla C. (Pen),
- 1, Sornoza J. (Pen),
- 2, Tapiero S. (Pen),
- 2, Spinelli C. (Pen),
- 3, Arce L. (Pen),
- 3, Mercado P. (Pen),
- 4, Delgado B. (Pen),
- 4, Schunke R. (Pen),
Chances of winning
Mushuc Runa
23.8% | Draw
26.3% | Independiente del Valle
49.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)Independiente del Valle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (-2.8%)
Mushuc Runa - Independiente del Valle Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.91 ↑
(3.7) |
3.54 ↑
(3.5) |
1.88 ↓
(1.89) |
7.1%
(8.5%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Mushuc Runa - Independiente del Valle?
Users Predictions:
Independiente del Valle will win
(13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- 1st leg result: 0-1. 2nd leg.
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 1.
- Mushuc Runa is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Ind del Valle is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- In this match, Ind del Valle is the team to beat.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 19:36. (average 1:1.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Mushuc Runa won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 9:18. (average 1:2).
How many head-to-head matches has Mushuc Runa won against Independiente del Valle?
Mushuc Runa has won 1 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Independiente del Valle won against Mushuc Runa?
Independiente del Valle has won 6 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Mushuc Runa - Independiente del Valle were as follows:
12.08.2025
Independiente del Valle
-
Mushuc Runa
1:0
23.05.2025
Independiente del Valle
-
Mushuc Runa
2:1
05.10.2024
Mushuc Runa
-
Independiente del Valle
1:1
18.04.2024
Independiente del Valle
-
Mushuc Runa
2:1
06.08.2023
Mushuc Runa
-
Independiente del Valle
1:0
Latest results of Mushuc Runa
Latest results of Independiente del Valle
Draw
Play Offs1/16-finals| 1 | Alianza Lima | Gremio | 1 : 1, 2 : 0 |
| 2 | Bye | U. Catolica | |
| 3 | U. De Chile | Guarani | 1 : 2, 5 : 0 |
| 4 | Bye | Independiente | |
| 5 | Central Cordoba | Cerro Largo | 3 : 0, 0 : 0 |
| 6 | Bye | Lanus | |
| 7 | Bahia | America De Cali | 0 : 2, 0 : 0 |
| 8 | Bye | Fluminense | |
| 9 | Bolivar | Palestino | 3 : 0, 3 : 0 |
| 10 | Bye | Cienciano | |
| 11 | Bucaramanga | Atletico-MG | 1 : 1, 0 : 1 |
| 12 | Bye | Godoy Cruz | |
| 13 | Ind. del Valle | Vasco | 1 : 1, 4 : 0 |
| 14 | Bye | Mushuc Runa | |
| 15 | SA Bulo Bulo | Once Caldas | 0 : 4, 0 : 3 |
| 16 | Bye | Huracan | |
1/8-finals| 1 | Alianza Lima | U. Catolica | 2 : 1, 2 : 0 |
| 2 | U. De Chile | Independiente | 1 : 1, 1 : 0 |
| 3 | Central Cordoba | Lanus | 0 : 2, 1 : 0 |
| 4 | America De Cali | Fluminense | 0 : 2, 1 : 2 |
| 5 | Bolivar | Cienciano | 2 : 0, 2 : 0 |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | Godoy Cruz | 1 : 0, 2 : 1 |
| 7 | Ind. del Valle | Mushuc Runa | 2 : 2, 1 : 0 |
| 8 | Once Caldas | Huracan | 3 : 1, 1 : 0 |
Quarter-finals| 1 | Alianza Lima | TBD #2 | |
| 2 | Lanus | Fluminense | |
| 3 | Bolivar | Atletico-MG | |
| 4 | Ind. del Valle | Once Caldas | |
