Independiente del Valle vs Mushuc Runa – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

23/05/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Banco Guayaquil (Quito).

Liga Pro - Round 14
Referee: Cabrera R. (Ecu)
Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Teleamazonas, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.35	0.57
Ball Possession
67%	33%
Total shots
17	9
Shots on target
6	3
Big Chances
0	0
Corner Kicks
5	4
Passes
80% (344/430)	60% (121/201)
Yellow Cards
1	3
Red Cards
0	1
Expected Goals (xG)
1.35	0.57
xG on target (xGOT)
0.97	0.65
Total shots
17	9
Shots on target
6	3
Shots off target
7	4
Blocked Shots
4	2
Shots inside the Box
12	6
Shots outside the Box
5	3
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Headed Goals
1	0
Big Chances
0	0
Corner Kicks
5	4
Touches in opposition box
21	15
Accurate through passes
3	0
Offsides
0	2
Free Kicks
12	10
Passes
80% (344/430)	60% (121/201)
Long passes
48% (24/50)	33% (22/66)
Passes in final third
71% (76/107)	41% (39/95)
Crosses
7% (1/15)	13% (3/24)
Expected assists (xA)
1.01	0.50
Throw-ins
17	17
Fouls
10	12
Tackles
75% (6/8)	58% (7/12)
Duels won
42	35
Clearances
35	17
Interceptions
5	4
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	4
xGOT faced
0.65	0.97
Goals prevented
-0.35	-1.03

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', Peralta K. 🟨,
35', Mancilla Quinones J. L. 🟨,
40', 1 - 0, Spinelli C. ⚽, Mercado P. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', Mancilla Quinones J. L. 🟨,
57', 2 - 0, Sornoza J. ⚽,
58', Mendez J. ↓, Pata E. ↑,
59', Sornoza J. ↓, Cazares ↑,
59', Hoyos M. ↓, Ibarra R. ↑,
59', Orejuela C. ↓, Parrales J. ↑,
61', Gracia A. ↓, Mina G. ↑,
62', 2 - 1, Tapiero S. ⚽, Mina G. (A),
71', Caicedo E. ↓, Simisterra R. ↑,
73', Spinelli C. ↓, Medina J. ↑,
74', Mercado P. ↓, Arroyo J. P. ↑,
90+5', Santamaria T. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Independiente del Valle
61.1%

Draw
22.8%

Mushuc Runa
16.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.3%

22%

14.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1%

21.1%

14.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Mushuc Runa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (-2%)

Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.47)	4.08 ↓ (4.22)	5.78 ↓ (6.31)	7.6% (7.8%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa?

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Ind del Valle will win (votes: 13 - 81.3%). Mushuc Runa will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ind del Valle: 62.2% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Independiente del Valle will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.

Preview Facts

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind del Valle won 2.
Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
Recently, Ind del Valle has had a series of away games.
In this match, Ind del Valle is seen as the favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ind del Valle won 14 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 41:21. (average 2.1:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Ind del Valle won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:10. (average 1.9:1).

How many head-to-head matches has Independiente del Valle won against Mushuc Runa?

Independiente del Valle has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Mushuc Runa won against Independiente del Valle?

Mushuc Runa has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa were as follows:

05.10.2024 Mushuc Runa - Independiente del Valle 1:1

18.04.2024 Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa 2:1

06.08.2023 Mushuc Runa - Independiente del Valle 1:0

25.02.2023 Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa 3:1

02.11.2022 Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa 1:1

Latest results of Independiente del Valle

18.05.2025 Vinotinto - Independiente del Valle 1:3 ✺

15.05.2025 River Plate - Independiente del Valle 6:2 ✺

11.05.2025 Técnico Universitario - Independiente del Valle 1:2 ✺

08.05.2025 Universitario de Deportes - Independiente del Valle 1:1 ✺

04.05.2025 Independiente del Valle - Emelec 1:2 ✺

Latest results of Mushuc Runa

17.05.2025 Mushuc Runa - Orense 2:5 ✺

13.05.2025 Unión Santa Fe - Mushuc Runa 0:1 ✺

10.05.2025 Manta - Mushuc Runa 2:1 ✺

07.05.2025 Mushuc Runa - Cruzeiro 1:1 ✺

03.05.2025 Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Macará 4:3 ✺

Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ind. del Valle	21	12	7	2	39:19	20	43
2	Barcelona SC	21	11	5	5	33:25	8	38
3	LDU Quito	21	10	7	4	37:21	16	37
4	Dep. Cuenca	21	10	4	7	26:20	6	34
5	Orense	21	10	4	7	24:24	0	34
6	Libertad	21	9	6	6	31:26	5	33
7	Aucas	21	9	5	7	28:26	2	32
8	U. Catolica	21	7	7	7	34:28	6	28
9	Delfin	21	6	8	7	20:29	-9	26
10	Emelec	21	6	7	8	16:24	-8	25
11	EL Nacional	21	6	6	9	24:30	-6	24
12	Vinotinto	21	6	5	10	26:29	-3	23
13	Manta	21	5	8	8	27:34	-7	23
14	Macara	21	5	7	9	19:21	-2	22
15	Mushuc Runa	21	4	5	12	24:38	-14	17
16	Tecnico U	21	3	7	11	19:33	-14	16

      Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
      Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
      Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )