Result
1:2
29/11/2025 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 12
- Referee: Vasilica I. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Albania | Tring Sport 3 |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Bulgaria | Ring, Voyo |
 Cyprus | Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7 |
 Denmark | Bold+ |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free |
 Georgia | Silk Sport 2 |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 5 |
 Italy | DAZN Italia |
 Kazakhstan | Sport+ |
 Netherlands | Ziggo Sport 3 |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 4 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 1x2, Arena Sport 4 |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 1 |
 South-america | Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Inter |
 World | Triller TV, Triller TV+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.50 | 2.68 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 30% | 70% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 31 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 67% (174/260) | 84% (502/596) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.50 | 2.68 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.75 | 2.32 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 31 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 13 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 10 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 19 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 12 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 11 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 5 | 64 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 67% (174/260) | 84% (502/596) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 30% (19/63) | 47% (18/38) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 54% (39/72) | 78% (213/274) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 0% (0/7) | 30% (11/37) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.30 | 3.53 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 8 | 33 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 73% (11/15) | 42% (5/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 49 | 61 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 62 | 15 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.32 | 0.75 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.32 | -0.25 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 55', Barrenechea E. 🟨,
- 55', Nourani M. 🟨,
- 58', Rego R. ↓, Prestianni G. ↑,
- 59', Nourani M. ↓, Witi ↑,
- 59', Baeza M. ↓, Labidi C. ↑,
- 60', 1 - 0, Ramirez J. ⚽, Paulinho Boia (A),
- 64', Barrenechea E. ↓, Ivanovic F. ↑,
- 65', Labidi C. 🟨,
- 71', Ramirez J. 🟨,
- 77', Barreiro L. ↓, Schjelderup A. ↑,
- 78', Ramirez J. ↓, Joao L. ↑,
- 84', Prestianni G. 🟨,
- 84', Paulinho Boia ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 89', 1 - 1, Prestianni G. ⚽, Dedic A. (A),
- 90+5', 1 - 2, Pavlidis V. ⚽, Schjelderup A. (A),
Chances of winning
Nacional
11.4% | Draw
18.8% | Benfica
69.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-0.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (+3%)
Nacional - Benfica Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
8.34 ↑
(8.22) |
5.09 ↓
(5.12) |
1.36 ↑
(1.35) |
5%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Nacional - Benfica?
Users Predictions:
16 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). Benfica will win (votes: 10 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Benfica: 38.8% – 86.2%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Nacional (votes: 1 - 50%). Benfica (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 0.
- Recent performances by Nacional have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Benfica is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Benfica may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Nacional has had a series of away games.
- In this match, Benfica is the undeniable favorite.
- There will not play in Nacional: Fernandes I.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Benfica: Bah A.
(Knee Injury)
Bruma
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Felix N.
(Knee Injury)
Lukebakio D.
(Broken ankle)
Rios R.
(Yellow Cards)
Santos L.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Nacional: Ulisses
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 18 matches, and goals 12:59. (average 0.6:3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 8:25. (average 0.9:2.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Benfica?
Nacional has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Benfica won against Nacional?
Benfica has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional - Benfica were as follows:
08.03.2025
Benfica
-
Nacional
3:0
19.12.2024
Nacional
-
Benfica
0:2
Latest results of Nacional
Latest results of Benfica
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 23 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 44:7 | 37 | 62 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 23 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 59:12 | 47 | 58 |
| 3 | Benfica | 23 | 16 | 7 | 0 | 49:13 | 36 | 55 |
| 4 | Braga | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 48:22 | 26 | 42 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 34:21 | 13 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 35 |
| 7 | Estoril | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 46:39 | 7 | 33 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 29:33 | -4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 27:34 | -7 | 31 |
| 10 | Alverca | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 23:38 | -15 | 26 |
| 11 | Arouca | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 31:49 | -18 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 23 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 25:43 | -18 | 22 |
| 14 | Nacional | 23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 27:34 | -7 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 20 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 23 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 18:29 | -11 | 18 |
| 17 | Tondela | 23 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 17:36 | -19 | 18 |
| 18 | AFS | 23 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
