Result
1:0
21/03/2026 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 27
- Referee: Ramalho P. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 Uruguay | Antel TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.74 | 0.43 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (360/425) | 84% (303/359) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.74 | 0.43 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.24 | 1.34 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 9 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (360/425) | 84% (303/359) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 51% (25/49) | 41% (21/51) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 65% (70/108) | 73% (76/104) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (6/21) | 5% (1/20) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.40 | 0.33 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 56% (9/16) | 74% (14/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 44 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 21 | 33 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.34 | 2.24 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.34 | 1.24 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 16', Matheus Dias 🟨,
- 40', Sa G. 🟨,
- 43', Vallier L. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 63', 1 - 0, Ba I. ⚽, Sa G. (A),
- 77', Matheus Dias ↓, Soares F. ↑,
- 77', Labidi C. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 77', Baeza M. ↓, Witi ↑,
- 78', De Amorim M. 🟨,
- 79', De Amorim M. ↓, Pena M. ↑,
- 79', Elisor S. ↓, Abubakar U. ↑,
- 84', Paulinho Boia ↓, Pablo Ruan ↑,
- 87', Sorriso ↓, Joujou A. ↑,
- 89', Sa G. ↓, Realpe L. ↑,
- 90+1', Daniel Junior 🟨,
- 90+2', Carevic L. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Famalicão
57.8% | Draw
23.7% | Nacional
18.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Famalicão has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (-2.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+2.2%)
Famalicão - Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.65 ↓
(1.73) |
4 ↑
(3.8) |
5 ↑
(4.5) |
5.7%
(6.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Famalicão - Nacional?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -0.75 - Famalicão (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Famalicão will win
(10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Famalicão (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 6 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Famalicão won 2.
- Famalicão is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Nacional has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Famalicão is a strong favorite.
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Famalicão won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1.3:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Famalicão won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Famalicão won against Nacional?
Famalicão has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Famalicão?
Nacional has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Famalicão - Nacional were as follows:
01.11.2025
Nacional
-
Famalicão
0:1
01.03.2025
Nacional
-
Famalicão
2:1
29.09.2024
Famalicão
-
Nacional
0:0
Latest results of Famalicão
Latest results of Nacional
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto ✔ | 32 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 64:15 | 49 | 85 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 69:22 | 47 | 76 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 77:22 | 55 | 73 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 60:32 | 28 | 57 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 41:29 | 12 | 52 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 46:32 | 14 | 49 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 38:43 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 37:47 | -10 | 42 |
| 9 | Estoril | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 52:53 | -1 | 38 |
| 10 | Alverca | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 34:50 | -16 | 38 |
| 11 | Arouca | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 41:62 | -21 | 36 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 33:52 | -19 | 34 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 30:40 | -10 | 33 |
| 14 | Nacional | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 35:43 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 36:54 | -18 | 28 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 29:56 | -27 | 26 |
| 17 | Tondela | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 24:52 | -28 | 25 |
| 18 | AFS ✔ | 32 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 24:66 | -42 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
Clinched Spots for Teams
FC Porto is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )
AFS is Relegated to Liga Portugal 2
