Result
0:1
28/09/2025 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 7
- Referee: Fonseca M. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Croatia | SportKlub 7 |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 8, Free |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 6 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Slovenia | SportKlub 5 |
 South-america | Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Sport |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Inter |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.59 | 1.33 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 60% | 40% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (494/609) | 75% (307/408) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.59 | 1.33 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.03 | 1.06 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (494/609) | 75% (307/408) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 25% (14/55) | 47% (43/92) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (97/141) | 57% (62/109) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 15% (4/26) | 21% (3/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.84 | 0.39 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 30 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 52% (13/25) | 64% (9/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 60 | 53 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 29 | 41 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 14 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.06 | 0.03 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.06 | 0.03 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 6', 0 - 1, Ramirez J. ⚽, Jose Gomes (A),
- 12', Liziero 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Zalazar R. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
- 46', Moutinho J. ↓, Rodrigues D. ↑,
- 46', Arrey-Mbi B. ↓, Gorby ↑,
- 64', Pablo Ruan ↓, Witi ↑,
- 64', Labidi C. ↓, Soares F. ↑,
- 68', Navarro F. ↓, Victor P. ↑,
- 76', Gomez V. ↓, Grillitsch F. ↑,
- 79', Ulisses ↓, Goncalves C. ↑,
- 79', Paulinho Boia ↓, Watts ↑,
- 85', Ramirez J. ↓, Joao L. ↑,
- 90+3', Leo Santos 🟨,
Chances of winning
Braga
57.9% | Draw
25.3% | Nacional
16.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Braga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Braga's form might have worsened.Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nacional's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Braga than the current prediction. (+15.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Braga, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-6.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nacional, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Braga - Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.04 ↑
(1.35) |
4.26 ↓
(4.93) |
6.32 ↓
(8.42) |
-11.7%
(6.2%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Braga - Nacional?
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. Braga will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). Nacional will win (votes: 3 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Braga: 50.9% – 95.7%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Braga (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 7 and 15).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Braga won 4.
- In recent matches, Braga has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Nacional's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Braga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Braga is the undeniable favorite.
- There will not play in Braga: Dorgeles M.
(Inactive)
Noro J.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Oliveira P.
(Inactive)
Vidigal S.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Nacional: Baeza M.
(Knee Injury)
Deivison
(Inactive)
Fernandes I.
(Inactive)
Matheus Dias
(Red Card)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Braga won 15 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 48:19. (average 2.4:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Braga won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 28:11. (average 2.5:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Braga won against Nacional?
Braga has won 4 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Braga?
Nacional has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Braga - Nacional were as follows:
21.02.2025
Braga
-
Nacional
1:0
20.09.2024
Nacional
-
Braga
0:3
22.12.2023
Nacional
-
Braga
1:3
12.04.2023
Nacional
-
Braga
0:5
Latest results of Nacional
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19:1 | 18 | 21 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 19:4 | 15 | 18 |
| 3 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13:4 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Moreirense | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10:8 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8:4 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7:3 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Braga | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11:7 | 4 | 9 |
| 8 | Santa Clara | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5:8 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7:11 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Arouca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:18 | -9 | 8 |
| 11 | Estrela | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6:6 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8:11 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Nacional | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Casa Pia | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6:11 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Estoril | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8:11 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8:13 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Tondela | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4:11 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | AFS | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4:17 | -13 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
