Result
1:2
28/02/2026 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 24
- Referee: Rosa D. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 2 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 Uruguay | Antel TV |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.97 | 2.48 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 37% | 63% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 20 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (255/344) | 85% (499/586) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.97 | 2.48 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.06 | 3.47 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 20 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 16 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 24 | 36 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (255/344) | 85% (499/586) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (28/70) | 44% (21/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 43% (43/99) | 79% (125/159) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 30% (3/10) | 35% (7/20) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.26 | 1.60 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 20 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 43% (6/14) | 62% (8/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 53 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 21 | 21 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 3.47 | 1.06 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.47 | 0.06 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 11', 0 - 1, Zalazar R. ⚽, Victor P. (A),
- 13', Grillitsch F. 🟨,
- 26', Matheus Dias 🟨,
- 28', Horta R. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Barisic A. ↓, Oliveira P. ↑,
- 59', 1 - 1, Paulinho Boia ⚽, Sousa A. (A),
- 66', Martinez G. ↓, Dorgeles M. ↑,
- 67', Grillitsch F. ↓, Moutinho J. ↑,
- 72', Rodrigues D. 🟨,
- 74', Sousa A. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 74', Gabriel Veron ↓, Witi ↑,
- 77', Vallier L. 🟨,
- 84', Rodrigues D. ↓, Tiknaz D. E. ↑,
- 84', Victor P. ↓, Navarro F. ↑,
- 90+6', 1 - 2, Zalazar R. (Penalty Awarded),
- 90+7', Vallier L. ↓, Pablo Ruan ↑,
- 90+8', Liziero ↓, Joao L. ↑,
Chances of winning
Nacional
15.9% | Draw
22% | Braga
62% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)Braga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)The ML Model estimate for Nacional aligns with the current prediction.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Braga than the current prediction. (+0.4%)
Nacional - Braga Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
5.9 ↑
(5.8) |
4.26 ↑
(4.17) |
1.53 ↓
(1.55) |
5.8%
(5.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Nacional - Braga?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1 - Braga (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Braga will win
(9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Braga will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Braga (votes: 4 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 14 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1.
- Nacional has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Braga is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- In this match, Braga is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Nacional: Aurelio J.
(Inactive)
Fernandes I.
(Injury)
Labidi C.
(Red Card)
Lucas Franca
(Inactive)
Soares F.
(Injury)
Ulisses
(Injury)
Ze Vitor
(Yellow Cards)
- There will not play in Braga: El Ouazzani A.
(Foot Injury)
Gorby
(Muscle Injury)
Niakate S.
(Muscle Injury)
Vitor Carvalho
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 16:51. (average 0.8:2.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 5:20. (average 0.6:2.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Braga?
Nacional has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Braga won against Nacional?
Braga has won 5 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional - Braga were as follows:
23.11.2025
Braga
-
Nacional
4:2
28.09.2025
Braga
-
Nacional
0:1
21.02.2025
Braga
-
Nacional
1:0
20.09.2024
Nacional
-
Braga
0:3
22.12.2023
Nacional
-
Braga
1:3
Latest results of Nacional
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 27 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 54:11 | 43 | 72 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 68:15 | 53 | 65 |
| 3 | Benfica | 27 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 58:17 | 41 | 65 |
| 4 | Braga | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 53:27 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 33:22 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 39:28 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Estoril | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 48:44 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 31:39 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29:42 | -13 | 32 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 28:46 | -18 | 30 |
| 11 | Alverca | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 27:45 | -18 | 29 |
| 12 | Arouca | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 34:55 | -21 | 29 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 24:31 | -7 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 33:45 | -12 | 28 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 26:48 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Nacional | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 29:39 | -10 | 22 |
| 17 | Tondela | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 19:39 | -20 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 27 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 18:58 | -40 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
