Napoli vs Sporting Lisbon – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football UEFA Champions League
Result
2:1
01/10/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Champions League - League phase - Round 2
  • Referee: Makkelie D. (Ned)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaSuperSport Maximo 360
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN 4
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
australiaAustraliaStan Sport
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 7
belgiumBelgiumPickx+ Sports 4, Pickx+ Sports 4, Play Sports 7, Play Sports 7
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 1
brazilBrazilHBO Max
canadaCanadaAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
chinaChinaiQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
cyprusCyprusCytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
denmarkDenmarkSee, Viaplay
europeEuropeGo3 Extra Sports Baltic
finlandFinlandMTV Katsomo+
franceFranceCanal+ Live 6
georgiaGeorgiaSilk Sport 3
germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
greeceGreeceCOSMOTE Sport 5
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN SPORTS MAX
hungaryHungaryRTL+
icelandIcelandViaplay
indiaIndiaJioTV app, Sony LIV
indonesiaIndonesiabeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
italyItalyNOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Uno
laosLaosbeIN Connect
macaoMacaoTDM TV
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
maltaMaltaTSN Malta 7
mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, HBO Max
netherlandsNetherlandsZiggo Sport 3
new-zealandNew-zealandDAZN New Zealand
norwayNorwayTV2 Play
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN SPORTS MAX
polandPolandCanal+ Extra 6
portugalPortugalDAZN / App, Sport TV5
romaniaRomaniaPrima Sport PPV 2
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
singaporeSingaporebeIN SPORTS MAX
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
south-americaSouth-americaESPN 4 South, Space Latin America, ViX Latin America
south-koreaSouth-koreaSPOTV Now
spainSpainM+ Liga de Campeones 7
swedenSwedenViaplay
thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
turkeyTurkeyTabii
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 8, MEGOGO Ukraine
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 5, TNT Sports Extra
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaParamount+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, Inter
vietnamVietnamON Plus

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.811.30
Ball Possession
51%49%
Total shots
128
Shots on target
34
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
72
Passes
90% (459/508)90% (444/495)
Expected Goals (xG)
0.811.30
xG on target (xGOT)
1.131.66
Total shots
128
Shots on target
34
Shots off target
51
Blocked Shots
43
Shots inside the Box
54
Shots outside the Box
74
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
72
Touches in opposition box
2116
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
916
Passes
90% (459/508)90% (444/495)
Long passes
62% (24/39)55% (26/47)
Passes in final third
73% (85/116)79% (85/107)
Crosses
20% (3/15)33% (3/9)
Expected assists (xA)
0.900.72
Throw-ins
1113
Fouls
169
Tackles
56% (10/18)67% (16/24)
Duels won
4459
Clearances
1822
Interceptions
66
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
31
xGOT faced
1.661.13
Goals prevented
0.66-0.87

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 36', 1 - 0, Hojlund R. ⚽, De Bruyne K. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Trincao ↓, Goncalves P. ↑,
  • 46', Catamo G. ↓, Suarez L. ↑,
  • 62', 1 - 1, Suarez L. (Pen),
  • 67', Quaresma E. ↓, Debast Z. ↑,
  • 67', Ioannidis F. ↓, Alisson Santos ↑,
  • 69', Politano M. ↓, David Neres ↑,
  • 69', McTominay S. ↓, Lang N. ↑,
  • 78', Simoes J. ↓, Morita H. ↑,
  • 79', 2 - 1, Hojlund R. ⚽, De Bruyne K. (A),
  • 81', Gutierrez M. ↓, Olivera M. ↑,
  • 81', De Bruyne K. ↓, Gilmour B. ↑,
  • 90', Hojlund R. ↓, Lucca L. ↑,

Chances of winning


Napoli
56%		Draw
27.6%		Sporting Lisbon
16.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
51.6% 25.7% 22.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6% 25.2% 22.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Napoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)
  • Sporting Lisbon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sporting Lisbon might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (-3.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (+5.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sporting Lisbon could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
    •

    Napoli - Sporting Lisbon Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.87 ↑
    (1.85)    		 3.87 ↑
    (3.72)    		 6.98 ↑
    (4.23)    		 -6.2%
    (4.5%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Napoli - Sporting Lisbon?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -0.75 - Napoli (2.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.5 - Sporting (1.95) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .
    • O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1 - Napoli (2.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DC - Napoli (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.75, 1st Half - Napoli (1.24) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH +1.75 - Napoli (1.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +1.5 - Napoli (1.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +1.25 - Napoli (1.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +1 - Napoli (1.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.75 - Napoli (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.5 - Napoli (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.25 - Napoli (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH 0 - Napoli (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • 1X2, 1st Half - Napoli (2.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Napoli will win (56 of 70 users predict this - 80%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 70.63% – 89.37%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Napoli will win (28 of 37 users predict this - 75.68%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 54 high ROI users predict this event. Napoli (votes: 42 - 77.8%). Sporting (votes: 6 - 11.1%). Tie (votes: 6 - 11.1%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Napoli has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Sporting is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • Sporting may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Napoli is seen as the favorite.
    • There will not play in Napoli: Buongiorno A. (Thigh Injury) Contini N. (Hand Injury) Di Lorenzo G. (Red Card) Lukaku R. (Thigh Injury) Rrahmani A. (Thigh Injury)
    • There will not play in Sporting: Braganca D. (Knee Injury) Santos N. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Sporting: Diomande O. (Muscle Injury)
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Napoli won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:0.
    Latest results of Napoli
    28.09.2025 Milan - Napoli 2:1 ✺
    22.09.2025 Napoli - Pisa 3:2 ✺
    18.09.2025 Manchester City - Napoli 2:0 ✺
    13.09.2025 Fiorentina - Napoli 1:3 ✺
    30.08.2025 Napoli - Cagliari 1:0 ✺
    Latest results of Sporting Lisbon
    27.09.2025 Estoril Praia - Sporting Lisbon 0:1 ✺
    22.09.2025 Sporting Lisbon - Moreirense 3:0 ✺
    18.09.2025 Sporting Lisbon - Kairat 4:1 ✺
    13.09.2025 Famalicão - Sporting Lisbon 1:2 ✺
    30.08.2025 Sporting Lisbon - Porto 1:2 ✺
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/16-finals
    1Monaco (21)PSG (11)2 : 2, 2 : 3
    2Chelsea (6)Bye
    3Galatasaray (20)Juventus (13)2 : 3, 5 : 2
    4Liverpool (3)Bye
    5Benfica (24)Real Madrid (9)1 : 2, 0 : 1
    6Manchester City (8)Bye
    7Dortmund (17)Atalanta (15)1 : 4, 2 : 0
    8Bayern Munich (2)Bye
    9Qarabag (22)Newcastle (12)2 : 3, 1 : 6
    10Barcelona (5)Bye
    11Club Brugge KV (19)Atl. Madrid (14)1 : 4, 3 : 3
    12Tottenham (4)Bye
    13Bodo/Glimt (23)Inter (10)2 : 1, 3 : 1
    14Sporting CP (7)Bye
    15Olympiacos Piraeus (18)Bayer Leverkusen (16)0 : 0, 0 : 2
    16Arsenal (1)Bye

    1/8-finals
    1PSG (11)Chelsea (6)
    2Galatasaray (20)Liverpool (3)
    3Real Madrid (9)Manchester City (8)
    4Atalanta (15)Bayern Munich (2)
    5Newcastle (12)Barcelona (5)
    6Atl. Madrid (14)Tottenham (4)
    7Bodo/Glimt (23)Sporting CP (7)
    8Bayer Leverkusen (16)Arsenal (1)

    Quarter-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2
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