Newcastle United vs Benfica – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football UEFA Champions League
Result
3:0
21/10/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Champions League - League phase - Round 3
  • Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaDStv Now, New World Sport 7, Supersport Action, SuperSport MaXimo 2
albaniaAlbaniaTring Sport 6
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, FOX Sports 2
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
australiaAustraliaStan Sport
austriaAustriaDAZN 2, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 6
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 1
brazilBrazilHBO Max
bulgariaBulgariaMax Sport 1
canadaCanadaAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaiQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
cyprusCyprusCytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 4, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandMTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
franceFranceCanal+ Live 3
germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
greeceGreeceCOSMOTE Sport 5, Nova Sports 4
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN SPORTS MAX
hungaryHungaryRTL+
icelandIcelandSÝN Sport 3
indiaIndiaJioTV app, Sony LIV
indonesiaIndonesiabeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
italyItalyNOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 257
kenyaKenyaGotv
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, HBO Max
netherlandsNetherlandsZiggo Sport 5
new-zealandNew-zealandDAZN New Zealand
nigeriaNigeriaSuperSport Action, Supersport Maximo 2
norwayNorwayTV2 Play
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+, Fox Sports 2
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN SPORTS MAX
polandPolandCanal+ Extra 3
portugalPortugalSport TV5
romaniaRomaniaPrima Sport PPV 1
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 5, Arena Sport 1
singaporeSingaporebeIN SPORTS MAX
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
south-africaSouth-africaSuperSport Action
south-americaSouth-americaESPN 7 Latin America, ESPN7 South, ViX Latin America
south-koreaSouth-koreaSPOTV Now
spainSpainM+ Liga de Campeones 7
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandBlue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5
thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
turkeyTurkeyTabii
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, TNT Sports 2, Virgin Media More
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaCBS Sports Network, Paramount+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, Inter
vietnamVietnamON Plus

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.840.33
Ball Possession
52%48%
Total shots
197
Shots on target
102
Big Chances
51
Corner Kicks
128
Passes
84% (350/415)81% (316/388)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
2.840.33
xG on target (xGOT)
4.090.20
Total shots
197
Shots on target
102
Shots off target
43
Blocked Shots
52
Shots inside the Box
132
Shots outside the Box
65
Hit the Woodwork
01
Big Chances
51
Corner Kicks
128
Touches in opposition box
3812
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
21
Free Kicks
716
Passes
84% (350/415)81% (316/388)
Long passes
57% (21/37)37% (20/54)
Passes in final third
74% (79/107)67% (44/66)
Crosses
35% (7/20)7% (1/15)
Expected assists (xA)
1.680.20
Throw-ins
1418
Fouls
167
Tackles
62% (8/13)65% (11/17)
Duels won
4349
Clearances
2418
Interceptions
1011
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
27
xGOT faced
0.204.09
Goals prevented
0.201.09

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 17', Thiaw M. 🟨,
  • 32', 1 - 0, Gordon A. ⚽, Murphy J. (A),
  • 45', Lukebakio D. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
  • 63', Murphy J. ↓, Barnes H. ↑,
  • 63', Ramsey J. ↓, Joelinton ↑,
  • 63', Dedic A. ↓, Ivanovic F. ↑,
  • 71', 2 - 0, Barnes H. ⚽, Pope N. (A),
  • 83', 3 - 0, Barnes H. ⚽, Gordon A. (A),
  • 85', Woltemade N. ↓, Osula W. ↑,
  • 85', Gordon A. ↓, Elanga A. ↑,
  • 90', Bruno Guimaraes ↓, Willock J. ↑,

Chances of winning


Newcastle United
63.5%		Draw
23.6%		Benfica
12.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
58.1% 22.8% 19.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6% 21.9% 18.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Newcastle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Newcastle United's performance.
  • Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Benfica might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (-2.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (+5.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Benfica could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
    •

    Newcastle United - Benfica Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.56 ↓
    (1.65)    		 4.29 ↑
    (4.2)    		 8.34 ↑
    (4.98)    		 -0.6%
    (4.6%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Newcastle United - Benfica?
  • Users Predictions: 70 users predict this event. Newcastle will win (votes: 55 - 78.6%). Benfica will win (votes: 4 - 5.7%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 15.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 69% – 88.2%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 18 high ROI users predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 12 - 66.7%). Benfica (votes: 4 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 2 - 11.1%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 1.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
    • AH +0.5 - Benfica (4.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1 - Benfica (1.70) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DC - Newcastle (1.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 22 high ROI users predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 13 - 59.1%). Benfica (votes: 7 - 31.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 9.1%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
    • Benfica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Newcastle is considered a favorite.
    • There will not play in Newcastle: Ashby H. (Inactive) Gillespie M. (Inactive) Hall L. (Thigh Injury) Lascelles J. (Inactive) Livramento V. (Knee Injury) Ruddy J. (Inactive) Wissa Y. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Knee Injury) Bruma (Achilles Tendon Injury) Felix N. (Knee Injury) Manu (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Newcastle: Tonali S. (Illness)
    • In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 1.3:2.3).
    • Including home match between the teams, Newcastle won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.
    Latest results of Newcastle United
    18.10.2025 Brighton & Hove Albion - Newcastle United 2:1 ✺
    05.10.2025 Newcastle United - Nottingham Forest 2:0 ✺
    01.10.2025 Saint-Gilloise - Newcastle United 0:4 ✺
    28.09.2025 Newcastle United - Arsenal 1:2 ✺
    24.09.2025 Newcastle United - Bradford City 4:1 ✺
    Latest results of Benfica
    17.10.2025 Chaves - Benfica 0:2 ✺
    05.10.2025 Porto - Benfica 0:0 ✺
    30.09.2025 Chelsea - Benfica 1:0 ✺
    26.09.2025 Benfica - Gil Vicente 2:1 ✺
    23.09.2025 Benfica - Rio Ave 1:1 ✺
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/16-finals
    1Monaco (21)PSG (11)2 : 2, 2 : 3
    2Chelsea (6)Bye
    3Galatasaray (20)Juventus (13)2 : 3, 5 : 2
    4Liverpool (3)Bye
    5Benfica (24)Real Madrid (9)1 : 2, 0 : 1
    6Manchester City (8)Bye
    7Dortmund (17)Atalanta (15)1 : 4, 2 : 0
    8Bayern Munich (2)Bye
    9Qarabag (22)Newcastle (12)2 : 3, 1 : 6
    10Barcelona (5)Bye
    11Club Brugge KV (19)Atl. Madrid (14)1 : 4, 3 : 3
    12Tottenham (4)Bye
    13Bodo/Glimt (23)Inter (10)2 : 1, 3 : 1
    14Sporting CP (7)Bye
    15Olympiacos Piraeus (18)Bayer Leverkusen (16)0 : 0, 0 : 2
    16Arsenal (1)Bye

    1/8-finals
    1PSG (11)Chelsea (6)
    2Galatasaray (20)Liverpool (3)
    3Real Madrid (9)Manchester City (8)
    4Atalanta (15)Bayern Munich (2)
    5Newcastle (12)Barcelona (5)
    6Atl. Madrid (14)Tottenham (4)
    7Bodo/Glimt (23)Sporting CP (7)
    8Bayer Leverkusen (16)Arsenal (1)

    Quarter-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2
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