Manchester City vs Newcastle United – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football English League Cup
Result
3:1
04/02/2026 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • EFL Cup - Semi-finals
  • Referee: Harrington T. (Eng)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
2.221.32
Ball possession
63%37%
Total shots
1812
Shots on target
85
Big chances
54
Corner kicks
54
Passes
90% (586/650)84% (319/380)
Yellow cards
30
Expected goals (xG)
2.221.32
xG on target (xGOT)
2.981.24
Total shots
1812
Shots on target
85
Shots off target
44
Blocked shots
63
Shots inside the box
126
Shots outside the box
66
Hit the woodwork
10
Headed goals
10
Big chances
54
Corner kicks
54
Touches in opposition box
3414
Accurate through passes
11
Offsides
12
Free kicks
1413
Passes
90% (586/650)84% (319/380)
Long passes
37% (13/35)47% (22/47)
Passes in final third
83% (144/173)68% (66/97)
Crosses
33% (2/6)22% (2/9)
Expected assists (xA)
1.151.00
Throw ins
1410
Fouls
1314
Tackles
76% (13/17)75% (12/16)
Duels won
4541
Clearances
1217
Interceptions
103
Errors leading to shot
20
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
45
xGOT faced
1.242.98
Goals prevented
0.24-0.02

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (3 - 0)
  • 7', 1 - 0, Marmoush O. ⚽,
  • 27', Nunes M. 🟨,
  • 29', 2 - 0, Marmoush O. ⚽,
  • 32', 3 - 0, Reijnders T. ⚽,
  • 44', Gordon A. ↓, Barnes H. ↑,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Ake N. ↓, Alleyne M. ↑,
  • 46', Woltemade N. ↓, Wissa Y. ↑,
  • 46', Willock J. ↓, Elanga A. ↑,
  • 46', Hall L. ↓, Murphy J. ↑,
  • 62', 3 - 1, Elanga A. ⚽, Thiaw M. (A),
  • 71', O'Reilly N. ↓, Rodri ↑,
  • 71', Semenyo A. ↓, Haaland E. ↑,
  • 72', Foden P. ↓, Cherki R. ↑,
  • 76', Trippier K. ↓, Osula W. ↑,
  • 78', Nico 🟨,
  • 83', Nico ↓, Lewis R. ↑,
  • 90+1', Rodri 🟨,

Chances of winning


Manchester City
71.5%		Draw
20.3%		Newcastle United
8.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
52.2% 24% 23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53% 23.6% 23.4%

Manchester City - Newcastle United Odds

1 X 2 Marga
Avarage Now
(Initially)		 1.78 ↓
(1.81)		 6.65 ↑
(3.94)		 17.44 ↑
(3.96)		 -23.1%
(5.8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Manchester City - Newcastle United?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -0.75 - Man City (1.96) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH 0 - Man City (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • TQ, OT - Man City (1.05) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH -1 - Man City (2.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.5 - Man City (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DNB - Man City (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DC - Man City (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Manchester City will win (59 of 71 users predict this - 83.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 74.38% – 91.82%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Manchester City will win (43 of 45 users predict this - 95.56%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 54 high ROI users predict this event. Man City (votes: 52 - 96.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 3.7%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • First leg result: 2-0. Second leg.
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Man City won 3.
    • Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
    • Man City may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Man City is a strong favorite.
    • There will not play in Man City: Doku J. (Calf Injury) Gvardiol J. (Broken Leg) Kovacic M. (Heel Injury) Savinho (Health problems) Stones J. (Thigh Injury)
    • There will not play in Newcastle: Joelinton (Injury) Krafth E. (Knee Injury) Livramento V. (Hamstring Injury) Schar F. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Man City: Cherki R. (Knock) Dias R. (Thigh Injury)
    • There are questionable in Newcastle: Bruno Guimaraes (Ankle Injury) Miley L. (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Man City won 14 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 49:18. (average 2.5:0.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Man City won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 26:2. (average 2.9:0.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Manchester City - Newcastle United were as follows:
    13.01.2026 Newcastle United - Manchester City 0:2
    22.11.2025 Newcastle United - Manchester City 2:1
    15.02.2025 Manchester City - Newcastle United 4:0
    28.09.2024 Newcastle United - Manchester City 1:1
    16.03.2024 Manchester City - Newcastle United 2:0
    Latest results of Manchester City
    01.02.2026 Tottenham Hotspur - Manchester City 2:2 ✺
    28.01.2026 Manchester City - Galatasaray 2:0 ✺
    24.01.2026 Manchester City - Wolverhampton Wanderers 2:0 ✺
    20.01.2026 Bodø Glimt - Manchester City 3:1 ✺
    17.01.2026 Manchester United - Manchester City 2:0 ✺
    Latest results of Newcastle United
    31.01.2026 Liverpool - Newcastle United 4:1 ✺
    28.01.2026 Paris Saint-Germain - Newcastle United 1:1 ✺
    25.01.2026 Newcastle United - Aston Villa 0:2 ✺
    21.01.2026 Newcastle United - PSV Eindhoven 3:0 ✺
    18.01.2026 Wolverhampton Wanderers - Newcastle United 0:0 ✺
    Draw
    Main

    1/64-finals
    1BarrowPreston0 : 1
    2WrexhamHull4 : 3
    3PortsmouthReading1 : 2
    4GillinghamAFC Wimbledon1 : 2
    5BurnleyBye
    6West BromDerby1 : 2
    7CardiffSwindon2 : 1
    8CheltenhamExeter2 : 0
    9WolvesBye
    10ByeWest Ham
    11EvertonBye
    12ChesterfieldMansfield0 : 2
    13TranmereBurton1 : 2
    14HarrogateLincoln1 : 3
    16ByeChelsea
    17BirminghamSheffield Utd2 : 1
    18BlackpoolPort Vale0 : 1
    20ByeArsenal
    21BarnsleyFleetwood3 : 2
    22SalfordRotherham0 : 1
    23Oxford UtdColchester1 : 0
    24ByeBrighton
    25LiverpoolBye
    27WatfordNorwich1 : 2
    28NorthamptonSouthampton0 : 1
    29Crystal PalaceBye
    31NewportMillwall0 : 1
    32CoventryLuton1 : 0
    33NewcastleBye
    35StokeWalsall1 : 0
    36BlackburnBradford City1 : 2
    37TottenhamBye
    39AccringtonPeterborough2 : 1
    40MiddlesbroughDoncaster0 : 4
    41WiganNotts Co1 : 0
    42Stockport CountyCrewe3 : 1
    43BromleyIpswich2 : 1
    44Leyton OrientWycombe0 : 1
    45FulhamBye
    46Bristol CityMK Dons2 : 0
    47Bristol RoversCambridge Utd0 : 2
    48CharltonStevenage3 : 1
    49SwanseaCrawley3 : 1
    50PlymouthQPR3 : 2
    52ByeNottingham
    53SunderlandBye
    54HuddersfieldLeicester3 : 2
    56ByeManchester City
    57BoltonSheffield Wed3 : 4
    58ByeLeeds
    59GrimsbyShrewsbury3 : 1
    60ByeManchester Utd
    61BournemouthBye
    62ByeBrentford
    64ByeAston Villa

    1/32-finals
    1PrestonWrexham2 : 3
    2ReadingAFC Wimbledon2 : 1
    3BurnleyDerby2 : 1
    4CardiffCheltenham3 : 0
    5WolvesWest Ham3 : 2
    6EvertonMansfield2 : 0
    7BurtonLincoln0 : 1
    8ByeChelsea
    9BirminghamPort Vale0 : 1
    10ByeArsenal
    11BarnsleyRotherham2 : 1
    12Oxford UtdBrighton0 : 6
    13LiverpoolBye
    14NorwichSouthampton0 : 3
    15Crystal PalaceBye
    16MillwallCoventry2 : 1
    17NewcastleBye
    18StokeBradford City0 : 3
    19TottenhamBye
    20AccringtonDoncaster0 : 2
    21WiganStockport County1 : 0
    22BromleyWycombe1 : 2
    23FulhamBristol City2 : 0
    24Cambridge UtdCharlton3 : 1
    25SwanseaPlymouth2 : 1
    26ByeNottingham
    27SunderlandHuddersfield1 : 2
    28ByeManchester City
    29Sheffield WedLeeds2 : 1
    30GrimsbyManchester Utd3 : 2
    31BournemouthBrentford0 : 2
    32ByeAston Villa

    1/16-finals
    1WrexhamReading2 : 0
    2BurnleyCardiff1 : 2
    3WolvesEverton2 : 0
    4LincolnChelsea1 : 2
    5Port ValeArsenal0 : 2
    6BarnsleyBrighton0 : 6
    7LiverpoolSouthampton2 : 1
    8Crystal PalaceMillwall2 : 1
    9NewcastleBradford City4 : 1
    10TottenhamDoncaster3 : 0
    11WiganWycombe0 : 2
    12FulhamCambridge Utd1 : 0
    13SwanseaNottingham3 : 2
    14HuddersfieldManchester City0 : 2
    15Sheffield WedGrimsby0 : 1
    16BrentfordAston Villa2 : 1

    1/8-finals
    1WrexhamCardiff1 : 2
    2WolvesChelsea3 : 4
    3ArsenalBrighton2 : 0
    4LiverpoolCrystal Palace0 : 3
    5NewcastleTottenham2 : 0
    6WycombeFulham1 : 2
    7SwanseaManchester City1 : 3
    8GrimsbyBrentford0 : 5

    Quarter-finals
    1CardiffChelsea1 : 3
    2ArsenalCrystal Palace2 : 1
    3NewcastleFulham2 : 1
    4Manchester CityBrentford2 : 0

    Semi-finals
    1ChelseaArsenal0 : 1, 2 : 3
    2NewcastleManchester City1 : 3, 0 : 2

    Final
    1ArsenalManchester City
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