Notts County vs Derby County: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer English EFL Trophy Notts County - Derby County
Result
1:2
10/10/2023 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • ENGLAND: EFL TROPHY
  • Referee: Pollard C. (Eng)
Notts County - Derby County - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Chances of winning


Notts County
29.4%
Draw
26.3%
Derby County
44.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
36% 26.5% 37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6% 26.9% 36.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Notts County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Notts County's form might have worsened.
  • Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Derby County's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Notts County than the current prediction. (+7.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Notts County, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-7.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Derby County, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Notts County - Derby County Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.12
    (2.5)
    3.49
    (3.4)
    2.07
    (2.4)
    9%
    (11.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
  • What is the prediction for Notts County - Derby County?
  • Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Notts County will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Derby will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 50.6%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Now both teams are in good shape.
    • Derby will have a small advantage in this match.
    • Last 3 head-to-head matches Notts County won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2-9.
    • Including matches at home between the teams Notts County won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2-9.
    Latest results of Notts County
    Latest results of Derby County
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/16-finals
    1CharltonLeyton Orient0 : 2
    2BurtonStevenage0 : 4
    3WycombeSwindon1 : 2
    4ExeterBirmingham1 : 2
    5ChesterfieldWigan3 : 2
    6RotherhamTranmere3 : 2
    7BlackpoolAston Villa U211 : 2
    8Stockport CountyBradford City2 : 3
    9PeterboroughNorthampton3 : 0
    10WalsallReading2 : 1
    11CheltenhamCambridge Utd2 : 1
    12ColchesterAFC Wimbledon2 : 0
    13DoncasterPort Vale0 : 1
    14WrexhamCrewe1 : 0
    15MorecambeLincoln0 : 1
    16BoltonHuddersfield3 : 1

    1/8-finals
    1Leyton OrientStevenage0 : 1
    2SwindonBirmingham1 : 2
    3ChesterfieldRotherham0 : 1
    4Aston Villa U21Bradford City1 : 3
    5PeterboroughWalsall4 : 2
    6CheltenhamColchester2 : 1
    7Port ValeWrexham1 : 4
    8LincolnBolton0 : 1

    Quarter-finals
    1StevenageBirmingham0 : 1
    2RotherhamBradford City0 : 1
    3PeterboroughCheltenham3 : 2
    4WrexhamBolton1 : 0

    Semi-finals
    1BirminghamBradford City2 : 1
    2PeterboroughWrexham3 : 2

    Final
    1BirminghamPeterborough0 : 2
    X
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