Palmeiras vs Chelsea – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football FIFA Club World Cup
Football FIFA Club World Cup Palmeiras - Chelsea
Result
1:2
04/07/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • FIFA Club World Cup - Play Offs - Quarter-finals
  • Referee: Faghani A. (Irn)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.211.14
Ball Possession
37%63%
Total shots
719
Shots on target
26
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
310
Passes
81% (235/291)87% (436/499)
Yellow Cards
13
Expected Goals (xG)
0.211.14
xG on target (xGOT)
0.331.40
Total shots
719
Shots on target
26
Shots off target
26
Blocked Shots
37
Shots inside the Box
511
Shots outside the Box
28
Hit the Woodwork
01
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
310
Touches in opposition box
1542
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
30
Free Kicks
1614
Passes
81% (235/291)87% (436/499)
Long passes
43% (22/51)52% (12/23)
Passes in final third
64% (49/76)74% (98/132)
Crosses
25% (3/12)14% (2/14)
Expected assists (xA)
0.270.79
Throw-ins
1813
Fouls
1416
Tackles
55% (11/20)78% (14/18)
Duels won
4463
Clearances
2013
Interceptions
78
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
41
xGOT faced
1.400.33
Goals prevented
-0.28-0.67

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 16', 0 - 1, Palmer C. ⚽, Chalobah T. (A),
  • 41', Gusto M. 🟨,
  • 45+2', Delap L. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 53', 1 - 1, Estevao ⚽, Rios R. (A),
  • 54', Nkunku C. ↓, Madueke N. ↑,
  • 54', Delap L. ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
  • 66', Torres F. ↓, Paulinho ↑,
  • 66', Allan ↓, Mauricio ↑,
  • 76', Martinez E. ↓, Moreno A. ↑,
  • 76', Vitor Roque ↓, Flaco Lopez ↑,
  • 78', Rios R. 🟨,
  • 83', 1 - 2, Weverton (Own goal),
  • 85', Rios R. ↓, Raphael Veiga ↑,
  • 86', Colwill L. 🟨,
  • 87', Neto P. ↓, Dewsbury-Hall K. ↑,
  • 90+1', Andrey Santos ↓, Essugo D. ↑,

Chances of winning


Palmeiras
23%		Draw
29%		Chelsea
48.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
27.7% 28.1% 44.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28% 28.4% 43.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)
  • Chelsea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (-4.3%)
    •

    Palmeiras - Chelsea Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 4.13 ↑
    (3.47)    		 3.3 ↓
    (3.41)    		 2 ↓
    (2.17)    		 4.6%
    (4.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    •
    What is the prediction for Palmeiras - Chelsea?
  • Users Predictions: 83 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 10 - 12%). Chelsea will win (votes: 60 - 72.3%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 15.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Chelsea: 62.7% – 81.9%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 20 high ROI users predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 3 - 15%). Chelsea (votes: 14 - 70%). Tie (votes: 3 - 15%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 5 - 83.3%).
    • AH +0.25 - Chelsea (votes: 6 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • In recent matches, Palmeiras has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Chelsea is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • Chelsea may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Chelsea has had a series of away games.
    • Chelsea is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Palmeiras: Bruno Rodrigues (Knee Injury) Figueiredo (Inactive) Gomez G. (Red Card) Murilo (Thigh Injury) Piquerez J. (Yellow Cards)
    • There will not play in Chelsea: Caicedo M. (Yellow Cards) Castledine L. (Back Injury) Fofana W. (Hamstring Injury) Kellyman O. (Hamstring Injury) Mudryk M. (Suspended)
    • There are questionable in Chelsea: Badiashile B. (Injury)
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Palmeiras won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.
    Latest results of Palmeiras
    23.06.2025 Inter Miami - Palmeiras 2:2 ✺
    19.06.2025 Palmeiras - Al Ahly Cairo 2:0 ✺
    15.06.2025 Palmeiras - Porto 0:0 ✺
    01.06.2025 Cruzeiro - Palmeiras 2:1 ✺
    28.05.2025 Palmeiras - Sporting Cristal 6:0 ✺
    Latest results of Chelsea
    24.06.2025 Espérance ST - Chelsea 0:3 ✺
    20.06.2025 Flamengo - Chelsea 3:1 ✺
    16.06.2025 Chelsea - Los Angeles 2:0 ✺
    28.05.2025 Betis - Chelsea 1:4 ✺
    25.05.2025 Nottingham Forest - Chelsea 0:1 ✺
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/8-finals
    1Inter (E1)Fluminense (F2)0 : 2
    2Manchester City (G1)Al Hilal (H2)3 : 4
    3Palmeiras (A1)Botafogo RJ (B2)1 : 0
    4Benfica (C1)Chelsea (D2)1 : 4
    5PSG (B1)Inter Miami (A2)4 : 0
    6Flamengo RJ (D1)Bayern Munich (C2)2 : 4
    7Real Madrid (H1)Juventus (G2)1 : 0
    8Dortmund (F1)Monterrey (E2)2 : 1

    Quarter-finals
    1Fluminense (F2)Al Hilal (H2)2 : 1
    2Palmeiras (A1)Chelsea (D2)1 : 2
    3PSG (B1)Bayern Munich (C2)2 : 0
    4Real Madrid (H1)Dortmund (F1)3 : 2

    Semi-finals
    1Fluminense (F2)Chelsea (D2)0 : 2
    2PSG (B1)Real Madrid (H1)4 : 0

    Final
    1Chelsea (D2)PSG (B1)3 : 0
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