Result
1:1
21/02/2026 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 1 - Round 23
- Referee: Millot B. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | CANAL+ Sport 2 |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Armenia | Fast Sports |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD |
 Austria | DAZN |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 5 |
 Bulgaria | Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 China | Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8 |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go |
 Cyprus | Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2 |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 5, Oneplay |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool |
 France | DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch |
 Hong-kong | beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Israel | Sport 5 |
 Italy | Ligue 1+ |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Mexico | FOX One |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 Norway | TV2 Play, Viaplay |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Portugal | Sport TV3 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 1x2 |
 Slovakia | Nova Sport 5, Voyo |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland |
 Turkey | beIN Connect |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 United-kingdom | DAZN, Ligue 1+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 Vietnam | ON Plus, TV 360 |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.89 | 0.82 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 55% | 45% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (401/473) | 80% (312/389) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.89 | 0.82 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.13 | 0.52 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 13 | 2 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 37 | 11 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (401/473) | 80% (312/389) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 50% (17/34) | 27% (13/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 74% (140/189) | 63% (32/51) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (8/24) | 13% (1/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.63 | 0.47 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 35 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 7 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 65% (11/17) | 68% (13/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 40 | 48 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 12 | 39 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 9 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.52 | 3.13 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.48 | 2.13 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 34', Methalie D. 🟨,
- 39', 0 - 1, Munetsi M. ⚽, Gory A. (A),
- 44', Coppola D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 54', Kebbal I. 🟨,
- 61', Kamanzi W. ↓, Vignolo J. ↑,
- 64', Emersonn ↓, Russell-Rowe J. ↑,
- 67', Gory A. ↓, De Smet T. ↑,
- 67', Ikone J. ↓, Koleosho L. ↑,
- 67', Munetsi M. ↓, Marchetti V. ↑,
- 68', Trapp K. 🟨,
- 77', Otavio 🟨,
- 81', Immobile C. ↓, Krasso J. ↑,
- 85', Kebbal I. ↓, Simon M. ↑,
- 86', Demba P. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,
- 87', 1 - 1, Vignolo J. ⚽, Hidalgo S. (A),
- 90+7', Simon M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Toulouse
47.8% | Draw
28.7% | Paris FC
23.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)Paris FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (+2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris FC than the current prediction. (-0.9%)
Toulouse - Paris FC Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2 ↑
(1.91) |
3.32 ↓
(3.4) |
4.08 ↓
(4.17) |
4.8%
(5.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Toulouse - Paris FC?
Users Predictions:
26 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 15 - 57.7%). Paris FC will win (votes: 5 - 19.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toulouse: 38.7% – 76.7%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -0.25 - Paris FC (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Toulouse (1.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1 - Toulouse (3.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Paris FC (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 15).
- In recent matches, Toulouse has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Paris FC has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- In this match, Toulouse is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I.
(Knee Injury)
Dominguez A.
(Inactive)
Donnum A.
(Suspended)
Francis A.
(Broken Leg)
Magri F.
(Knee Injury)
McKenzie M.
(Yellow Cards)
Messali R.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Paris FC: Alakouch S.
(Injury)
Camara A.
(Yellow Cards)
Chergui S.
(Injury)
Gueye L.
(Injury)
Hamel P.
(Calf Injury)
Lopez M.
(Yellow Cards)
Matondo R.
(Yellow Cards)
Riou R.
(Injury)
Traore H.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:6. (average 1.8:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toulouse won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Toulouse won against Paris FC?
Toulouse has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Paris FC won against Toulouse?
Paris FC has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toulouse - Paris FC were as follows:
13.12.2025
Paris FC
-
Toulouse
0:3
Latest results of Toulouse
Latest results of Paris FC
French Ligue 1 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSG | 27 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 61:23 | 38 | 63 |
| 2 | Lens | 28 | 19 | 2 | 7 | 54:27 | 27 | 59 |
| 3 | Lille | 29 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 49:34 | 15 | 53 |
| 4 | Marseille | 29 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 58:38 | 20 | 52 |
| 5 | Lyon | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 43:29 | 14 | 51 |
| 6 | Rennes | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 49:41 | 8 | 50 |
| 7 | Monaco | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 50:43 | 7 | 49 |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 46:34 | 12 | 43 |
| 9 | Lorient | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 38:44 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 39:39 | 0 | 37 |
| 11 | Brest | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 37:43 | -6 | 36 |
| 12 | Paris FC | 29 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 37:45 | -8 | 35 |
| 13 | Angers | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 25:39 | -14 | 33 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 29 | 6 | 11 | 12 | 24:37 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 | Nice | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 34:56 | -22 | 28 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 29 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 23:37 | -14 | 24 |
| 17 | Nantes | 28 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 24:45 | -21 | 19 |
| 18 | Metz | 29 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 26:63 | -37 | 15 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ Ligue 2
