Paysandu vs Grêmio Novorizontino – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

23/09/2025 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Leonidas Sodre de Castro (Belem).

Serie B Superbet - Round 28
Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.53	1.40
Ball Possession
54%	46%
Total shots
11	17
Shots on target
1	4
Big Chances
1	3
Corner Kicks
4	6
Passes
72% (250/345)	69% (203/294)
Yellow Cards
4	4
Red Cards
0	1
Expected Goals (xG)
0.53	1.40
xG on target (xGOT)
0.02	1.56
Total shots
11	17
Shots on target
1	4
Shots off target
8	6
Blocked Shots
2	7
Shots inside the Box
6	12
Shots outside the Box
5	5
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
0	1
Big Chances
1	3
Corner Kicks
4	6
Touches in opposition box
11	17
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
4	0
Free Kicks
10	15
Passes
72% (250/345)	69% (203/294)
Long passes
38% (25/65)	39% (25/64)
Passes in final third
47% (46/98)	68% (77/114)
Crosses
16% (3/19)	33% (7/21)
Expected assists (xA)
0.32	0.69
Throw-ins
29	21
Fouls
15	10
Tackles
80% (12/15)	70% (7/10)
Duels won
49	61
Clearances
20	42
Interceptions
8	7
Errors leading to shot
1	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	1
xGOT faced
1.56	0.02
Goals prevented
0.56	-0.98

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Leandro Vilela ↓, Gustavo Nicola ↑,
14', Gustavo Nicola 🟨,
27', Dudu Vieira 🟨,
39', Romulo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Nathan Fogaca ↓, Rafael Donato ↑,
46', Matheus Frizzo ↓, Robson ↑,
46', Novillo J. ↓, Rossi ↑,
46', Dudu Vieira ↓, Denner ↑,
47', Bryan Borges 🟨,
53', Fabio Matheus 🟨,
54', Patrick 🟨,
60', Fabio Matheus ↓, Willian Farias ↑,
70', Bryan Borges ↓, Marlon Douglas ↑,
72', Cesar Martins ↓, Ruiz O. ↑,
73', Rossi 🟨,
83', Romulo ↓, Tavinho ↑,
88', Gustavo Nicola ↓, Wendel ↑,
89', 0 - 1, Rafael Donato ⚽, Patrick (A),
90+1', Fabio Matheus 🟨,

Chances of winning

Paysandu
27.6%

Draw
30.6%

Grêmio Novorizontino
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

32.8%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

34%

31.5%

Paysandu - Grêmio Novorizontino Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.41 ↑ (2.76)	3.04 ↑ (2.89)	2.25 ↓ (2.9)	6.6% (5.4%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Paysandu - Grêmio Novorizontino?

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Paysandu will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Novorizontino will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano).
Paysandu has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Novorizontino has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Novorizontino may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
There will not play in Paysandu: Matheus Vargas (Injury) Thalisson (Red Card)
There will not play in Novorizontino: Marlon (Inactive) Renato Palm (Knee Injury) Vitinho (Inactive) Waguininho (Inactive)
There are questionable in Paysandu: Anderson Leite (Injury) Denner (Injury)
In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Paysandu won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 1:2.3).
Including home match between the teams, Paysandu won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

How many head-to-head matches has Paysandu won against Grêmio Novorizontino?

Paysandu has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio Novorizontino won against Paysandu?

Grêmio Novorizontino has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Paysandu - Grêmio Novorizontino were as follows:

25.05.2025 Grêmio Novorizontino - Paysandu 3:1

16.11.2024 Grêmio Novorizontino - Paysandu 1:1

29.07.2024 Paysandu - Grêmio Novorizontino 1:3

Latest results of Paysandu

20.09.2025 Goiás - Paysandu 1:0 ✺

13.09.2025 Paysandu - América Mineiro 0:0 ✺

05.09.2025 Paysandu - Volta Redonda 1:2 ✺

30.08.2025 CRB Maceio - Paysandu 2:0 ✺

24.08.2025 Paysandu - Operário Ferroviario 1:2 ✺

Latest results of Grêmio Novorizontino

19.09.2025 Grêmio Novorizontino - Athletic Club 1:0 ✺

15.09.2025 Ferroviária - Grêmio Novorizontino 1:2 ✺

08.09.2025 Grêmio Novorizontino - Atlético Goianiense 1:1 ✺

30.08.2025 Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio Novorizontino 2:1 ✺

22.08.2025 Criciúma - Grêmio Novorizontino 2:0 ✺

Brazilian Serie B Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Coritiba	38	19	11	8	39:23	16	68
2	Athletico-PR	38	19	8	11	53:43	10	65
3	Chapecoense-SC	38	18	8	12	52:35	17	62
4	Remo	38	16	14	8	51:39	12	62
5	Criciuma	38	17	10	11	47:33	14	61
6	Goias	38	17	10	11	42:37	5	61
7	Novorizontino	38	15	15	8	43:32	11	60
8	CRB	38	16	8	14	45:40	5	56
9	Avai	38	14	14	10	50:40	10	56
10	Cuiaba	38	14	12	12	43:44	-1	54
11	Atletico GO	38	13	13	12	39:38	1	52
12	Operario-PR	38	12	12	14	40:44	-4	48
13	Vila Nova FC	38	11	14	13	40:44	-4	47
14	America MG	38	12	10	16	41:44	-3	46
15	Athletic Club	38	12	8	18	43:53	-10	44
16	Botafogo SP	38	10	12	16	32:52	-20	42
17	Ferroviaria	38	8	16	14	43:52	-9	40
18	Amazonas	38	8	12	18	38:55	-17	36
19	Volta Redonda	38	8	12	18	26:43	-17	36
20	Paysandu PA	38	5	13	20	36:52	-16	28

Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )