Poblense vs Penya Independent – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11 Poblense - Penya Independent
Result
2:1
12/04/2025 at 10:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Tercera RFEF - Group 11 - Round 30

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 24', 1 - 0, Alarcon M. ,
  • 25', 1 - 1, ,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 56', 2 - 1, Pons A. ,

Chances of winning


Poblense
50.9%
Draw
28.3%
Penya Independent
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
54.1% 26.4% 19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.8% 24.7% 18.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Poblense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)
  • Penya Independent has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Poblense than the current prediction. (+6.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Poblense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penya Independent than the current prediction. (-2.6%)
  • Poblense - Penya Independent Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.79
    (1.68)
    3.22
    (3.43)
    4.38
    (4.68)
    9.9%
    (10.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • Preview Facts
    • Poblense in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
    • Recent matches Penya Independent is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
    • Poblense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
    • Recently Poblense have a series of guest games.
    • In this match Poblense is a favorite.
    • Our prediction for today's Poblense to win the game is with odds 1.74.
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Poblense won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:8 (average 1.4:1.6).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Poblense won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:4 (average 2:2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Poblense - Penya Independent were as follows:
    30.11.2024 Penya Independent - Poblense 1:0
    07.05.2023 Penya Independent - Poblense 1:1
    04.03.2023 Poblense - Penya Independent 2:1
    30.10.2022 Penya Independent - Poblense 2:2
    Latest results of Poblense
    29.03.2025 Constancia - Poblense 0:3
    23.03.2025 Porreres - Poblense 0:0
    15.03.2025 Poblense - Binissalem 1:0
    08.03.2025 Portmany - Poblense 0:1
    Latest results of Penya Independent
    Draw
    Promotion - Play Offs

    Final
    1SocuellamosCayon2 : 0, 1 : 1
    2CastellonenseBurgos CF B0 : 2, 1 : 0
    3CortesBeasain0 : 2, 1 : 2
    4Girona BSan Fernando2 : 0, 1 : 0
    5PulpilenoSarriana2 : 3, 0 : 0
    6LlerenenseLealtad1 : 3, 1 : 0
    7Atletico CentralJaen1 : 2, 0 : 1
    8PorreresAtletico Monzon2 : 0, 0 : 1
    9VareaRayo Vallecano B0 : 3, 1 : 2