AFC Wimbledon vs Port Vale – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

11/10/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

The Cherry Red Records Stadium (London).

League One - Round 12
Referee: Brook C. (Eng)
Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Go, Sky Sports+

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.94	1.72
Ball Possession
45%	55%
Total shots
6	16
Shots on target
4	3
Big Chances
2	3
Corner Kicks
5	11
Passes
62% (152/245)	68% (206/303)
Yellow Cards
2	2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.94	1.72
xG on target (xGOT)
1.95	1.47
Total shots
6	16
Shots on target
4	3
Shots off target
1	6
Blocked Shots
1	7
Shots inside the Box
3	12
Shots outside the Box
3	4
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Big Chances
2	3
Corner Kicks
5	11
Touches in opposition box
15	31
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
0	2
Free Kicks
13	10
Passes
62% (152/245)	68% (206/303)
Long passes
23% (15/66)	37% (19/51)
Passes in final third
53% (49/92)	49% (51/104)
Crosses
21% (5/24)	21% (6/28)
Expected assists (xA)
1.18	1.02
Throw-ins
29	30
Fouls
10	13
Tackles
50% (8/16)	57% (4/7)
Duels won
57	71
Clearances
53	38
Interceptions
8	6
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	1
Goalkeeper Saves
2	2
xGOT faced
1.47	1.95
Goals prevented
0.47	0.95

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Croasdale R. 🟨,
67', Croasdale R. ↓, Stockley J. ↑,
67', Orsi-Dadomo D. ↓, Hackford A. ↑,
69', Reeves J. 🟨,
72', 1 - 0, Hackford A. ⚽,
76', Lawrence-Gabriel J. 🟨,
77', Browne M. ↓, Maycock C. ↑,
80', Curtis R. ↓, Paton R. ↑,
86', 1 - 1, Cole D. ⚽,
90', Hall G. ↓, Faal M. ↑,
90+1', Ogundere I. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning

AFC Wimbledon
32.4%

Draw
32%

Port Vale
35.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

28.9%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

27.9%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AFC Wimbledon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that AFC Wimbledon's form might have worsened.

Port Vale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AFC Wimbledon than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for AFC Wimbledon, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

AFC Wimbledon - Port Vale Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↑ (2.48)	2.93 ↓ (3.24)	2.66 ↓ (2.81)	4.9% (6.8%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for AFC Wimbledon - Port Vale?

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Wimbledon will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). Port Vale will win (votes: 1 - 5.9%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 58.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.4% – 82.2%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Wimbledon (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: ) and 16).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wimbledon won 1.
Wimbledon has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
Port Vale is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Wimbledon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
There will not play in Port Vale: Clark M. (Neck Injury) Gordon L. (Injury)
There are questionable in Wimbledon: Bugiel O. (Injury) Hackford A. (Hamstring Injury)
There are questionable in Port Vale: Kyle John (Injury)
In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Wimbledon won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 1.3:2).
Including home matches between the teams, Wimbledon won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 2:1.3).

How many head-to-head matches has AFC Wimbledon won against Port Vale?

AFC Wimbledon has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Port Vale won against AFC Wimbledon?

Port Vale has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between AFC Wimbledon - Port Vale were as follows:

26.04.2025 AFC Wimbledon - Port Vale 0:2

26.10.2024 Port Vale - AFC Wimbledon 3:2

Latest results of AFC Wimbledon

04.10.2025 Blackpool - AFC Wimbledon 0:2 ✺

27.09.2025 AFC Wimbledon - Wycombe Wanderers 2:1 ✺

20.09.2025 Doncaster Rovers - AFC Wimbledon 1:2 ✺

16.09.2025 AFC Wimbledon - Crystal Palace U21 3:1 ✺

13.09.2025 AFC Wimbledon - Rotherham United 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Port Vale

07.10.2025 Accrington Stanley - Port Vale 0:2 ✺

04.10.2025 Port Vale - Northampton Town 0:0 ✺

27.09.2025 Barnsley - Port Vale 0:2 ✺

24.09.2025 Port Vale - Arsenal 0:2 ✺

20.09.2025 Port Vale - Mansfield Town 2:1 ✺

English League One Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Cardiff	12	8	2	2	21:10	11	26
2	Stevenage	11	8	1	2	17:9	8	25
3	Bradford City	12	7	4	1	22:15	7	25
4	Stockport County	13	7	4	2	19:14	5	25
5	AFC Wimbledon	13	8	1	4	19:14	5	25
6	Lincoln	12	7	3	2	18:10	8	24
7	Bolton	13	5	5	3	18:15	3	20
8	Huddersfield	12	6	1	5	18:15	3	19
9	Mansfield	12	5	3	4	18:14	4	18
10	Barnsley	11	5	3	3	18:16	2	18
11	Northampton	13	5	2	6	10:12	-2	17
12	Doncaster	13	5	2	6	12:18	-6	17
13	Wigan	13	4	4	5	16:17	-1	16
14	Luton	12	5	1	6	14:15	-1	16
15	Leyton Orient	13	4	2	7	20:23	-3	14
16	Reading	13	3	5	5	14:18	-4	14
17	Rotherham	12	4	2	6	12:16	-4	14
18	Wycombe	13	3	4	6	15:16	-1	13
19	Port Vale	13	3	4	6	11:12	-1	13
20	Exeter	13	4	1	8	12:14	-2	13
21	Plymouth	12	4	1	7	17:21	-4	13
22	Burton	12	3	3	6	10:16	-6	12
23	Peterborough	12	3	1	8	9:20	-11	10
24	Blackpool	13	2	3	8	11:21	-10	9

      Promotion ~ Championship
      Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: )
      Relegation ~ League Two