Result
3:1
27/02/2026 at 13:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 24
- Referee: Vasilica I. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Austria | DAZN |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Bulgaria | Ring, Voyo |
 Cyprus | Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6 |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 9, Free |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 7 |
 Hungary | Sport 2 |
 Israel | Sport 4 |
 Italy | DAZN Italia |
 Kazakhstan | Sport+ |
 Lithuania | Sport 1 |
 Netherlands | Ziggo Sport |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Norway | VG+ |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 1 |
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 2 |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 1 |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Turkey | S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 4 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.16 | 0.25 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 56% | 44% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (416/481) | 81% (303/372) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.16 | 0.25 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.27 | 0.04 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 4 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 28 | 5 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (416/481) | 81% (303/372) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 39% (12/31) | 37% (18/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (85/124) | 63% (24/38) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 14% (3/22) | 38% (3/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.91 | 0.18 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 29 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 65% (11/17) | 52% (13/25) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 52 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 9 | 32 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.04 | 3.27 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.96 | 0.27 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 1', 1 - 0, Pietuszewski O. ⚽, Froholdt V. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Sanchez J. ↓, Popovic B. ↑,
- 61', Gul D. ↓, Moffi T. ↑,
- 62', Pietuszewski O. ↓, William Gomes ↑,
- 62', Veiga G. ↓, Mora R. ↑,
- 66', Barbero I. ↓, Nandin D. ↑,
- 70', 1 - 1, Djouahra N. ⚽,
- 76', Rosario P. ↓, Fofana S. ↑,
- 78', Gozalbez P. ↓, Santiago Perez J. ↑,
- 78', Mansilla B. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 85', Pepê ↓, Miranda A. ↑,
- 85', Trezza A. ↓, Puche ↑,
- 90+1', 2 - 1, William Gomes (Penalty Awarded),
- 90+2', Popovic B. 🟨,
- 90+3', Monteiro D. 🟨,
- 90+8', 3 - 1, Moffi T. ⚽, William Gomes (A),
Chances of winning
Porto
78.4% | Draw
14.5% | Arouca
7.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Porto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)
Porto - Arouca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.21 ↑
(1.17) |
6.55 ↓
(8.25) |
13.69 ↓
(19) |
5.4%
(2.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Porto - Arouca?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Porto will win (votes: 12 - 85.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 67.4% – 100%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 6.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 4.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -2 - Arouca (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Porto will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 8 high ROI users predict this event. Porto (votes: 6 - 75%). Arouca (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 11).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Porto won 3.
- Porto is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Arouca's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- In this match, Porto is the undisputed favorite.
- There will not play in Porto: Fernandes M.
(Injury)
Perez N.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Samu
(Knee Injury)
Varela A.
(Yellow Cards)
de Jong L.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Arouca: Flores M.
(Inactive)
Lee H.
(Red Card)
Pedro Santos
(Inactive)
Tiago Esgaio
(Yellow Cards)
van Ee E.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Porto: Kiwior J.
(Injury)
Thiago Silva
(Inactive)
- In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Porto won 15 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 52:10. (average 2.9:0.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Porto won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 26:5. (average 2.9:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Porto won against Arouca?
Porto has won 6 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Arouca won against Porto?
Arouca has won 1 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Porto - Arouca were as follows:
29.09.2025
Arouca
-
Porto
0:4
01.03.2025
Arouca
-
Porto
0:2
29.09.2024
Porto
-
Arouca
4:0
12.02.2024
Arouca
-
Porto
3:2
03.09.2023
Porto
-
Arouca
1:1
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
