Result
0:4
29/09/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 7
- Referee: Verissimo F. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Bulgaria | Ring, Voyo |
 Cyprus | Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7 |
 Denmark | Bold+ |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free |
 Georgia | Silk Sport 1, Silk Universal |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3 |
 Hungary | Sport 1 |
 Israel | Sport 3 |
 Italy | DAZN Italia |
 Kazakhstan | Sport+ |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 4 |
 Kuwait | KTV Sport |
 Lithuania | Sport 1 |
 Netherlands | Ziggo Sport 4 |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 2 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 4 |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 1 |
 South-america | Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica |
 Suriname | SCCN |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Turkey | S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2 |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Inter |
 World | Triller TV+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.72 | 2.93 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (277/350) | 84% (327/389) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.72 | 2.93 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.97 | 3.13 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (277/350) | 84% (327/389) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 27% (14/51) | 55% (24/44) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 59% (44/74) | 58% (46/79) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (5/20) | 23% (5/22) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.67 | 0.88 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 12 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (5/8) | 62% (8/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 37 | 43 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 22 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 3.13 | 0.97 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.87 | 0.97 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 3', Trezza A. 🟨,
- 6', Fernandes M. 🟨,
- 12', 0 - 1, Samu ⚽, Froholdt V. (A),
- 33', Popovic B. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 3)
- 46', Samu ↓, Gul D. ↑,
- 48', Fernandes M. 🟨,
- 51', Veiga G. ↓, Rosario P. ↑,
- 51', 0 - 2, Gul D. ⚽, Pepê (A),
- 56', Trezza A. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
- 60', 0 - 3, Moura F. ⚽, Sainz B. (A),
- 63', Gul D. 🟨,
- 64', Gozalbez P. 🟨,
- 65', Gozalbez P. ↓, Puche ↑,
- 65', Djouahra N. ↓, Nandin D. ↑,
- 69', Moura F. ↓, Zaidu ↑,
- 69', Pepê ↓, Costa A. ↑,
- 69', Sainz B. ↓, Prpic D. ↑,
- 69', Simao D. 🟨,
- 74', Tiago Esgaio 🟨,
- 79', Barbero I. ↓, Jansonas R. ↑,
- 79', Simao D. ↓, van Ee E. ↑,
- 85', 0 - 4, Zaidu ⚽, Costa A. (A),
Chances of winning
Arouca
9.4% | Draw
16% | Porto
74.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Porto's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+2.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-4.8%)
Arouca - Porto Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
10.16 ↑
(7.38) |
5.86 ↑
(4.65) |
1.28 ↓
(1.38) |
5.3%
(7.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Arouca - Porto?
Users Predictions:
23 users predict this event. Porto will win (votes: 23 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 100% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Porto will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
Preview Facts
- Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 1.
- In recent matches, Arouca has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Porto is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Porto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Porto is the undisputed favorite.
- There will not play in Arouca: Flores M.
(Inactive)
Fontan J.
(Red Card)
- There will not play in Porto: Perez N.
(Injury)
de Jong L.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Arouca: Sola A.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Porto: Zaidu
(Injury)
- In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 14 matches, and goals 10:48. (average 0.6:2.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Arouca won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 5:22. (average 0.6:2.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Arouca won against Porto?
Arouca has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Porto won against Arouca?
Porto has won 5 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Arouca - Porto were as follows:
01.03.2025
Arouca
-
Porto
0:2
29.09.2024
Porto
-
Arouca
4:0
12.02.2024
Arouca
-
Porto
3:2
03.09.2023
Porto
-
Arouca
1:1
08.05.2023
Arouca
-
Porto
0:1
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 19:1 | 18 | 22 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 20:5 | 15 | 19 |
| 3 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14:4 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Benfica | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13:4 | 9 | 18 |
| 5 | Moreirense | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12:11 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8:4 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:12 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Braga | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12:8 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Nacional | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9:12 | -3 | 10 |
| 10 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11:16 | -5 | 10 |
| 11 | Arouca | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10:19 | -9 | 9 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 11:13 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Casa Pia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:13 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Estrela | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6:8 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Estoril | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10:13 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Tondela | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4:14 | -10 | 5 |
| 18 | AFS | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5:20 | -15 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
