Result
4:4
24/10/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 15
- Referee: Gomez H. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV |
 Usa | Estrella TV, NBC Universo, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.67 | 2.03 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 49% | 51% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (343/398) | 84% (357/424) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.67 | 2.03 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.56 | 3.58 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 12 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (343/398) | 84% (357/424) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 55% (22/40) | 48% (26/54) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (63/93) | 77% (82/107) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 30% (7/23) | 16% (3/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.90 | 0.29 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 24 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (6/9) | 57% (8/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 21 | 30 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 3.58 | 2.56 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.42 | -1.44 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 25', 1 - 0, Madson ⚽,
- 37', 2 - 0, Estupinan O. (Pen),
- 43', Portales W. ↓, Baltazar C. ↑,
- 45', Murillo J. 🟨,
- 45+1', 2 - 1, Rey L. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 3)
- 48', 3 - 1, Guilherme Castilho ⚽, Puma (A),
- 50', Orona E. 🟨,
- 58', Marin R. ↓, Araos A. ↑,
- 58', Navarro E. ↓, Monarrez F. ↑,
- 65', Guerra E. 🟨,
- 70', 3 - 2, Gomez E. ⚽,
- 73', 4 - 2, Murillo J. ⚽, Guilherme Castilho (A),
- 74', Organista A. ↓, Ramirez M. ↑,
- 74', Guerra E. ↓, Garnica B. ↑,
- 78', Madson ↓, Fulgencio R. ↑,
- 84', Puma ↓, Ricardinho ↑,
- 84', Pizarro R. ↓, Valoyes D. ↑,
- 88', 4 - 3, Araos A. ⚽, Gomez E. (A),
- 89', Estupinan O. ↓, Zaldivar A. ↑,
- 89', Martinez Yepez H. E. ↓, Gonzalez Mendoza J. A. ↑,
- 90+2', Fulgencio R. 🟨,
- 90+3', 4 - 4, Rey L. ⚽, Monarrez F. (A),
Chances of winning
Juárez
57.7% | Draw
24.1% | Puebla
18.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Juárez - Puebla Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.68 ↓
(1.82) |
3.92 ↑
(3.7) |
5.1 ↑
(3.95) |
4.6%
(7.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Juárez - Puebla?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Juárez (votes: 2 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Juárez will win
(12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: ) and 18).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Juárez won 3.
- Juárez has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Puebla has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- In this match, Juárez is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Puebla: Castillo R.
(Red Card)
Cavallini L.
(Knee Injury)
Diaz N.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Juárez: Mosquera M.
(Injury)
Torres Ramirez I. J. M.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Puebla: Fedorco J.
(Ankle Injury)
Moyano F.
(Inactive)
- In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Juárez won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:21. (average 1.3:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Juárez won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.3:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Juárez won against Puebla?
Juárez has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Puebla won against Juárez?
Puebla has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Juárez - Puebla were as follows:
29.03.2025
Juárez
-
Puebla
2:0
27.09.2024
Puebla
-
Juárez
2:3
23.03.2024
Juárez
-
Puebla
4:3
25.08.2023
Puebla
-
Juárez
1:0
31.03.2023
Juárez
-
Puebla
0:2
Mexican Liga MX Table
Apertura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Toluca | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 43:18 | 25 | 37 |
| 2 | Tigres UANL | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 35:16 | 19 | 36 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 32:20 | 12 | 35 |
| 4 | Club America | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 33:18 | 15 | 34 |
| 5 | Monterrey | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 33:29 | 4 | 31 |
| 6 | Guadalajara Chivas | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 29:22 | 7 | 29 |
| 7 | Club Tijuana | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 29:23 | 6 | 24 |
| 8 | Juarez | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 27:28 | -1 | 23 |
| 9 | Pachuca | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21:21 | 0 | 22 |
| 10 | UNAM Pumas | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 24:25 | -1 | 21 |
| 11 | Santos Laguna | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 22:28 | -6 | 20 |
| 12 | Queretaro | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 19:29 | -10 | 20 |
| 13 | Necaxa | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 24:32 | -8 | 17 |
| 14 | Atlas | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 24:35 | -11 | 17 |
| 15 | Atl. San Luis | 17 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 25:29 | -4 | 16 |
| 16 | Mazatlan FC | 17 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 20:29 | -9 | 14 |
| 17 | Club Leon | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14:31 | -17 | 13 |
| 18 | Puebla | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 21:42 | -21 | 12 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
