Result
0:1
18/04/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Clausura - Round 17
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Fox Sports, FOX Sports Premium |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | TUDN |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.59 | 1.08 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 20 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (263/339) | 81% (342/420) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.59 | 1.08 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.02 | 0.63 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 20 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 12 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 11 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 18 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (263/339) | 81% (342/420) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 50% (37/74) | 40% (23/57) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 54% (38/70) | 67% (91/136) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 21% (3/14) | 40% (2/5) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.42 | 0.66 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 59% (13/22) | 60% (12/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 52 | 59 |
| Clearances Total |
|---|
| 21 | 29 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.63 | 0.02 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.37 | 0.02 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 43', Castillo R. 🟨,
- 44', 0 - 1, Paradela J. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Fedorco J. ↓, Gularte E. ↑,
- 57', Gularte E. 🟨,
- 60', Paradela J. 🟨,
- 62', Castillo R. ↓, Rivas J. ↑,
- 62', Angulo B. ↓, Waller Martiarena F. F. ↑,
- 63', Monreal R. ↓, Cambindo D. ↑,
- 75', Perez P. ↓, Mayorga A. ↑,
- 75', Rojas J. ↓, De Buen D. ↑,
- 76', Gustavo Ferrareis ↓, Garnica B. ↑,
- 87', Palavecino A. ↓, Andrade A. ↑,
- 87', Rosero K. ↓, Palma A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Puebla
25.1% | Draw
26.8% | Necaxa
48.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Puebla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Puebla's form might have worsened.Necaxa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.8%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Necaxa's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Puebla than the current prediction. (+15.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Puebla, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Necaxa than the current prediction. (-16.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Necaxa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Puebla - Necaxa Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.75 ↑
(2.46) |
3.54 ↑
(3.29) |
1.97 ↓
(2.82) |
5.6%
(6.4%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Puebla - Necaxa?
Users Predictions:
16 users predict this event. Puebla will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). Necaxa will win (votes: 12 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Necaxa: 53.8% – 96.2%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH 0 - Necaxa (votes: 6 - 100%).
- DNB - Necaxa (votes: 3 - 100%).
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Necaxa will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )).
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Puebla won 1.
- Puebla has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
- Necaxa is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
- In this match Necaxa is a favorite.
- There will not play in Puebla: Cavallini L.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Necaxa: Oliveros A.
(Leg Injury)
- There are questionable in Puebla: Rivas J.
(Thigh Injury)
- Last 19 head-to-head matches Puebla won 6 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 20:25 (average 1.1:1.3).
- Including matches at home between the teams Puebla won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10:11 (average 1.1:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Puebla won against Necaxa?
Puebla has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Necaxa won against Puebla?
Necaxa has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Puebla - Necaxa were as follows:
13.07.2024
Necaxa
-
Puebla
4:1
19.01.2024
Puebla
-
Necaxa
1:2
08.10.2023
Necaxa
-
Puebla
1:2
14.04.2023
Necaxa
-
Puebla
1:1
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Pachuca | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:2 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10:7 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:3 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Monterrey | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | Cruz Azul | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7:4 | 3 | 5 |
| 6 | Club America | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Necaxa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:5 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Mazatlan FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Atlas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7:8 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Club Tijuana | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Santos Laguna | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Guadalajara Chivas | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Atl. San Luis | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Puebla | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | UNAM Pumas | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:6 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Club Leon | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Juarez | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 2 |
| 18 | Queretaro | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:6 | -5 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
