Result
2:2
23/09/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 10
- Referee: Peinaldo Aguirre Y. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Tubi TV |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | TUDN App, TUDN |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.50 | 1.94 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 53% | 47% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (293/380) | 79% (265/335) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.50 | 1.94 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.79 | 2.63 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 1 | 8 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 9 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (293/380) | 79% (265/335) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 36% (17/47) | 37% (19/51) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 64% (60/94) | 75% (77/102) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 24% (4/17) | 17% (3/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.56 | 0.77 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 32 | 30 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 53% (10/19) | 71% (12/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 52 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 21 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.63 | 0.79 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.63 | -1.21 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 2', Navarro E. 🟨,
- 25', Idrissi O. (Pen),
- 25', 0 - 1, Idrissi O. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Castillo R. ↓, Baltazar C. ↑,
- 46', Rivas J. ↓, Guerra E. ↑,
- 46', Gonzalez O. ↓, Organista A. ↑,
- 47', 1 - 1, Gomez E. ⚽, Moyano F. (A),
- 51', Moyano F. 🟨,
- 62', Moyano F. ↓, Ramirez M. ↑,
- 67', Kenedy ↓, Guzman V. ↑,
- 67', Idrissi O. ↓, Togni G. ↑,
- 72', 2 - 1, Gomez E. ⚽, Baltazar C. (A),
- 77', Valencia E. ↓, Cadiz J. ↑,
- 77', Garcia Caprizo B. A. ↓, Sanchez C. ↑,
- 80', Navarro E. ↓, Orona E. ↑,
- 82', 2 - 2, Bautista A. ⚽, Cadiz J. (A),
- 84', Marin R. 🟨,
- 84', Eduardo Bauermann 🟨,
- 86', Pedraza P. ↓, Hernandez I. ↑,
- 90+1', Gamarra P. 🟨,
- 90+6', Bautista A. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Puebla
24.7% | Draw
25.2% | Pachuca
50.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Puebla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)Pachuca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Puebla than the current prediction. (-0.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pachuca than the current prediction. (+3.4%)
Puebla - Pachuca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.8 ↑
(3.6) |
3.74 ↓
(3.8) |
1.88 ↑
(1.76) |
6.3%
(10.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Puebla - Pachuca?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Puebla will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Pachuca will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pachuca: 44.1% – 94.3%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Pachuca (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Puebla won 0.
- In recent games, both teams have suffered a series of defeats.
- Puebla may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Puebla has had a series of away games.
- Pachuca might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Puebla: Cavallini L.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Pachuca: Carvalho W.
(Muscle Injury)
Micolta A.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Puebla: Fedorco J.
(Injury)
Guerra E.
(Muscle Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Puebla won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 21:45. (average 1.1:2.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Puebla won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 13:26. (average 1.3:2.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Puebla won against Pachuca?
Puebla has won 0 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Pachuca won against Puebla?
Pachuca has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Puebla - Pachuca were as follows:
26.02.2025
Pachuca
-
Puebla
2:1
20.09.2024
Puebla
-
Pachuca
2:3
20.02.2024
Puebla
-
Pachuca
1:4
28.10.2023
Pachuca
-
Puebla
1:1
09.01.2023
Pachuca
-
Puebla
5:1
Latest results of Pachuca
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Toluca ✔ | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 39:16 | 23 | 32 |
| 2 | Tigres UANL ✔ | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 31:14 | 17 | 32 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul ✔ | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 27:17 | 10 | 32 |
| 4 | Club America ✔ | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 31:16 | 15 | 31 |
| 5 | Monterrey ✔ | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 30:24 | 6 | 30 |
| 6 | Guadalajara Chivas | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 24:20 | 4 | 23 |
| 7 | Club Tijuana | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 26:19 | 7 | 21 |
| 8 | Pachuca | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:17 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Juarez | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 24:25 | -1 | 20 |
| 10 | Atl. San Luis | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 20:20 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Atlas | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 24:33 | -9 | 16 |
| 12 | UNAM Pumas | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 17:22 | -5 | 15 |
| 13 | Santos Laguna | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 17:23 | -6 | 14 |
| 14 | Queretaro | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 15:25 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Mazatlan FC | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 19:27 | -8 | 13 |
| 16 | Club Leon | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13:27 | -14 | 13 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15:27 | -12 | 10 |
| 18 | Puebla | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 19:38 | -19 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Toluca is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Tigres UANL is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Cruz Azul is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Club America is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Monterrey is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
