Rayo Vallecano vs Lech Poznań – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football UEFA Europa Conference League
Result
3:2
06/11/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Conference League - League phase - Round 3
  • Referee: Kopiyevsky V. (Ukr)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.890.37
Ball Possession
66%34%
Total shots
289
Shots on target
63
Big Chances
40
Corner Kicks
76
Passes
87% (502/580)77% (233/304)
Yellow Cards
41
Expected Goals (xG)
2.890.37
xG on target (xGOT)
3.421.26
Total shots
289
Shots on target
63
Shots off target
132
Blocked Shots
94
Shots inside the Box
194
Shots outside the Box
95
Hit the Woodwork
10
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
40
Corner Kicks
76
Touches in opposition box
4913
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
02
Free Kicks
18
Passes
87% (502/580)77% (233/304)
Long passes
68% (44/65)38% (18/47)
Passes in final third
79% (210/265)62% (40/65)
Crosses
29% (12/42)23% (3/13)
Expected assists (xA)
1.810.27
Throw-ins
2817
Fouls
81
Tackles
79% (15/19)73% (11/15)
Duels won
3234
Clearances
1738
Interceptions
713
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
13
xGOT faced
1.263.42
Goals prevented
-0.740.42

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 2)
  • 10', Trejo O. 🟨,
  • 11', 0 - 1, Palma L. ⚽, Pereira J. (A),
  • 25', Ciss P. 🟨,
  • 39', 0 - 2, Kozubal A. ⚽, Rodriguez P. (A),
  • 2nd Half (3 - 0)
  • 55', Gumbau G. ↓, Diaz P. ↑,
  • 55', Balliu I. ↓, Ratiu A. ↑,
  • 57', Trejo O. ↓, Palazon I. ↑,
  • 57', Camello S. ↓, Alemao ↑,
  • 58', Valentin O. 🟨,
  • 58', 1 - 2, Palazon I. ⚽, Diaz P. (A),
  • 60', Rodriguez P. ↓, Lisman K. ↑,
  • 60', Ishak M. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
  • 60', Bengtsson L. ↓, Ismaheel T. ↑,
  • 71', Palma L. ↓, Jagiello F. ↑,
  • 76', Mrozek B. 🟨,
  • 80', Perez F. ↓, de Frutos J. ↑,
  • 83', 2 - 2, de Frutos J. ⚽,
  • 90+1', Garcia A. 🟨,
  • 90+4', 3 - 2, Garcia A. ⚽, Ciss P. (A),

Chances of winning


Rayo Vallecano
63.5%		Draw
21.9%		Lech Poznań
14.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
68.3% 20.3% 11.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72% 19.3% 10.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Rayo Vallecano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)
  • Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (+8.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rayo Vallecano, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-3.8%)
    •

    Rayo Vallecano - Lech Poznań Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.5 ↑
    (1.37)    		 4.39 ↓
    (4.6)    		 6.63 ↓
    (8.2)    		 4.6%
    (6.9%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    What is the prediction for Rayo Vallecano - Lech Poznań?
  • Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 21 - 80.8%). Lech will win (votes: 2 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 11.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Rayo Vallecano: 65.7% – 95.9%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -1 - Rayo Vallecano (1.81) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
    • AH -1.5 - Rayo Vallecano (2.53) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1.25 - Rayo Vallecano (2.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.75 - Rayo Vallecano (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.5 - Rayo Vallecano (1.56) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Rayo Vallecano will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 17 high ROI users predict this event. Rayo Vallecano (votes: 14 - 82.4%). Lech (votes: 1 - 5.9%). Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Rayo Vallecano is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • In recent matches, Lech has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Lech may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Rayo Vallecano has had a series of away games.
    • In this match, Rayo Vallecano is the obvious favorite.
    • There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Chavarria P. (Red Card) Mumin A. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Lech: Gholizadeh A. (Thigh Injury) Hakans D. (Ankle Injury) Murawski R. (Surgery) Walemark P. (Surgery)
    • There are questionable in Rayo Vallecano: Lopez U. (Injury) Luiz Felipe (Hamstring Injury)
    • In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.
    Latest results of Rayo Vallecano
    01.11.2025 Villarreal - Rayo Vallecano 4:0 ✺
    29.10.2025 Yuncos - Rayo Vallecano 1:6 ✺
    26.10.2025 Rayo Vallecano - Deportivo Alavés 1:0 ✺
    23.10.2025 Häcken - Rayo Vallecano 2:2 ✺
    19.10.2025 Levante - Rayo Vallecano 0:3 ✺
    Latest results of Lech Poznań
    02.11.2025 Lech Poznań - Motor Lublin 2:2 ✺
    30.10.2025 Gryf Słupsk - Lech Poznań 1:2
    26.10.2025 Legia Warsaw - Lech Poznań 0:0 ✺
    23.10.2025 Lincoln Red Imps - Lech Poznań 2:1 ✺
    19.10.2025 Lech Poznań - Pogoń Szczecin 2:2 ✺
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/16-finals
    1KuPS (21)Lech Poznan (11)0 : 2
    2Noah (19)AZ Alkmaar (14)1 : 0
    3Zrinjski (23)Crystal Palace (10)1 : 1
    4Jagiellonia (17)Fiorentina (15)0 : 3
    5Shkendija (22)Samsunspor (12)0 : 1
    6Drita (20)Celje (13)2 : 3
    7Sigma Olomouc (24)Lausanne (9)1 : 1
    8Omonia (18)Rijeka (16)0 : 1
    9Rayo Vallecano (5)Bye
    10Shakhtar Donetsk (6)Bye
    11AEK Athens (3)Bye
    12Sparta Prague (4)Bye
    13Mainz (7)Bye
    14AEK Larnaca (8)Bye
    15Strasbourg (1)Bye
    16Rakow (2)Bye
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