Result
0:1
02/05/2026 at 14:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ekstraklasa - Round 31
- Referee: Arys K. (Pol)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 4 |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports Espanol |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go |
 Czech-republic | Sporty TV |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Poland | CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 3, Arena Sport 6, Arena Sport 8 |
 Ukraine | Sport 1 |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV |
 World | Sport 1 Baltic |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.71 | 1.72 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 24 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (348/422) | 82% (316/384) |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.71 | 1.72 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.23 | 1.14 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 24 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 13 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 17 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 36 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (348/422) | 82% (316/384) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 37% (19/52) | 41% (24/58) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (68/103) | 70% (96/137) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 46% (6/13) | 43% (6/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.65 | 1.14 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 16 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 56% (9/16) | 79% (11/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 41 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 17 | 16 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.14 | 0.23 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.14 | 0.23 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 19', Gholizadeh A. ↓, Hakans D. ↑,
- 40', 0 - 1, Bengtsson L. ⚽, Pereira J. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 65', Hakans D. ↓, Palma L. ↑,
- 65', Walemark P. ↓, Jagiello F. ↑,
- 65', Ndiaye M. ↓, Krol M. ↑,
- 65', van Hoeven B. ↓, Fabio Ronaldo ↑,
- 77', Stolarski P. ↓, Wojcik F. ↑,
- 77', Czubak K. ↓, Dadashov R. ↑,
- 79', Bengtsson L. ↓, Ismaheel T. ↑,
- 79', Gurgul M. ↓, Gumny R. ↑,
- 86', Rodrigues I. ↓, Karasek K. ↑,
Chances of winning
Motor Lublin
23.4% | Draw
23.3% | Lech Poznań
53.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Motor Lublin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lech Poznań's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Motor Lublin than the current prediction. (+1.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-4.2%)
Motor Lublin - Lech Poznań Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.01 ↑
(3.51) |
4 ↑
(3.32) |
1.76 ↓
(1.84) |
6.7%
(13%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Motor Lublin - Lech Poznań?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Motor will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Lech will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lech: 39.2% – 89.4%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lech (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 3.25 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).
- Motor has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Lech is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Lech may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Lech could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Motor: Brkic I.
(Ribs Injury)
Plichta K.
(Surgery)
- There will not play in Lech: Douglas A.
(Ribs Injury)
Lisman K.
(Knee Injury)
Skrzypczak M.
(Inactive)
Thordarson G.
(Muscle Injury)
- In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Motor won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1.7:1.7).
- Including home match between the teams, Motor won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.
How many head-to-head matches has Motor Lublin won against Lech Poznań?
Motor Lublin has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lech Poznań won against Motor Lublin?
Lech Poznań has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Motor Lublin - Lech Poznań were as follows:
02.11.2025
Lech Poznań
-
Motor Lublin
2:2
13.04.2025
Motor Lublin
-
Lech Poznań
1:2
05.10.2024
Lech Poznań
-
Motor Lublin
1:2
Latest results of Motor Lublin
Latest results of Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 31 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 56:41 | 15 | 55 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 43:34 | 9 | 49 |
| 3 | GKS Katowice | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 48:42 | 6 | 47 |
| 4 | Jagiellonia | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 48:37 | 11 | 46 |
| 5 | Rakow | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 43:37 | 6 | 46 |
| 6 | Zaglebie | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 43:36 | 7 | 45 |
| 7 | Wisla Plock | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 32:31 | 1 | 45 |
| 8 | Pogon Szczecin | 31 | 12 | 5 | 14 | 43:45 | -2 | 41 |
| 9 | Piast Gliwice | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 40:41 | -1 | 40 |
| 10 | Legia | 31 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 35:36 | -1 | 40 |
| 11 | Radomiak Radom | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 46:43 | 3 | 40 |
| 12 | Korona Kielce | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 38:37 | 1 | 39 |
| 13 | Cracovia | 31 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 35:38 | -3 | 39 |
| 14 | Motor Lublin | 31 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 39:46 | -7 | 39 |
| 15 | Lechia Gdansk | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 57:54 | 3 | 38 |
| 16 | Widzew Lodz | 31 | 10 | 6 | 15 | 36:38 | -2 | 36 |
| 17 | Arka Gdynia | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 31:54 | -23 | 34 |
| 18 | Termalica B-B | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 37:60 | -23 | 28 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Division 1
