Result
1:2
25/01/2026 at 12:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 21
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Spain | Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 51% | 49% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 3', 1 - 0, Cayarga B. ⚽,
- 14', 1 - 1, Balboa A. ⚽,
- 36', Gete A. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 47', Presa K. 🟨,
- 58', Cayarga B. ↓, Isi Ros ↑,
- 58', Gete A. ↓, Rubio R. ↑,
- 64', Pastrana V. ↓, Junior L. ↑,
- 64', Presa K. ↓, Perera A. ↑,
- 73', Chukwuma E. 🟥,
- 77', 🟨,
- 83', 1 - 2, Jose Amo ⚽,
- 87', Campabadal E. ↓, Poquet N. ↑,
- 89', Gallar A. ↓, Lopez I. ↑,
- 90+1', 🟨,
- 90+5', Rivera C. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Real Avilés
31.4% | Draw
35.7% | Lugo
33% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Real Avilés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Real Avilés's form might have worsened.Lugo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Avilés than the current prediction. (+6.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Real Avilés, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (-2.5%)
Real Avilés - Lugo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.05 ↑
(2.42) |
2.61 ↓
(2.83) |
2.89 ↓
(2.92) |
5.7%
(11%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Real Avilés - Lugo?
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:0.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 and 10).
- In recent matches, Real Avilés has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Lugo is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Real Avilés may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Real Avilés won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:5. (average 0.3:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Real Avilés won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:5. (average 0.5:2.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Real Avilés won against Lugo?
Real Avilés has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lugo won against Real Avilés?
Lugo has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Real Avilés - Lugo were as follows:
06.09.2025
Lugo
-
Real Avilés
0:0
19.08.2023
Real Avilés
-
Lugo
1:0
Latest results of Real Avilés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Tenerife | 34 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 55:20 | 35 | 70 |
| 2 | Celta Vigo B | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 56:43 | 13 | 61 |
| 3 | Zamora | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 46:38 | 8 | 55 |
| 4 | Real Madrid B | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 54:43 | 11 | 53 |
| 5 | Pontevedra | 34 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 43:26 | 17 | 53 |
| 6 | Ponferradina | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 38:29 | 9 | 51 |
| 7 | Barakaldo | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 44:34 | 10 | 51 |
| 8 | Unionistas | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 47:44 | 3 | 49 |
| 9 | AD Merida | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 44:47 | -3 | 48 |
| 10 | Arenas Getxo | 34 | 14 | 5 | 15 | 40:49 | -9 | 47 |
| 11 | Lugo | 34 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 32:37 | -5 | 46 |
| 12 | Racing Club Ferrol | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 38:43 | -5 | 46 |
| 13 | Ath Bilbao B | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 34:38 | -4 | 45 |
| 14 | Real Aviles | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 49:56 | -7 | 42 |
| 15 | Ourense CF | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 38:40 | -2 | 38 |
| 16 | CF Talavera | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 33:43 | -10 | 36 |
| 17 | Guadalajara | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 37:52 | -15 | 36 |
| 18 | Cacereno | 34 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 31:45 | -14 | 35 |
| 19 | Osasuna B | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 24:39 | -15 | 33 |
| 20 | Arenteiro | 34 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 29:46 | -17 | 27 |
Promotion ~ LaLiga2
Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1
Relegation
