Bastia vs Red Star – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

05/12/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Stade Armand Cesari (Bastia).

Ligue 2 - Round 16
Referee: Gaillouste P. (Fra)
Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.65	0.06
Ball Possession
58%	42%
Total shots
10	2
Shots on target
2	0
Big Chances
0	0
Corner Kicks
3	2
Passes
80% (226/283)	72% (145/202)
Yellow Cards
1	2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.65	0.06
xG on target (xGOT)
0.31	0.00
Total shots
10	2
Shots on target
2	0
Shots off target
5	2
Blocked Shots
3	0
Shots inside the Box
5	1
Shots outside the Box
5	1
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
0	0
Corner Kicks
3	2
Touches in opposition box
12	5
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
0	2
Free Kicks
13	12
Passes
80% (226/283)	72% (145/202)
Long passes
32% (9/28)	23% (8/35)
Passes in final third
61% (43/71)	61% (20/33)
Crosses
23% (3/13)	13% (1/8)
Expected assists (xA)
0.32	0.07
Throw-ins
11	7
Fouls
12	13
Tackles
63% (5/8)	80% (4/5)
Duels won
37	29
Clearances
5	16
Interceptions
5	7
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
0	2
xGOT faced
0.00	0.31
Goals prevented
0.00	0.31

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Vincent C. 🟨,
23', Durivaux D. 🟨,
31', Ray R. 🟨,
41', Khaoui S. E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Chances of winning

Bastia
37.6%

Draw
31%

Red Star
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30%

30.2%

39.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29%

29.2%

41.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bastia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bastia's performance.

Red Star has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Red Star might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bastia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Red Star than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Red Star could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Bastia - Red Star Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↓ (3.05)	3.04 ↑ (3.03)	2.97 ↑ (2.3)	6.6% (9.3%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Bastia - Red Star?

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Bastia will win (votes: 6 - 31.6%). Red Star will win (votes: 9 - 47.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 21.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Red Star: 24.9% – 69.9%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Bastia (votes: 1 - 50%). Red Star (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH +0.5 - Red Star (2.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Bastia (1.69) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Red Star (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Bastia (votes: 3 - 50%). Red Star (votes: 3 - 50%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
Red Star may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
There will not play in Bastia: Akueson G. (Knee Injury) Bathily Y. (Injury) Bohnert F. (Inactive) Djedje D. (Injury) Ducrocq T. (Injury) Guevara J. (Inactive) Guidi D. (Yellow Cards) Parravicini N. (Hernia)
There will not play in Red Star: Doucoure R. (Knee Injury) Guindo S. (Inactive)
In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:4. (average 2.3:1).
Including home matches between the teams, Bastia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

How many head-to-head matches has Bastia won against Red Star?

Bastia has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Red Star won against Bastia?

Red Star has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Bastia - Red Star were as follows:

21.02.2025 Bastia - Red Star 1:0

06.12.2024 Red Star - Bastia 0:0

Latest results of Bastia

29.11.2025 Saint-Malo - Bastia 0:1 ✺

25.11.2025 Bastia - Laval 0:2 ✺

21.11.2025 Annecy - Bastia 1:0 ✺

07.11.2025 Bastia - Reims 1:3 ✺

31.10.2025 Bastia - Clermont 1:0 ✺

Latest results of Red Star

29.11.2025 Biesheim - Red Star 2:1 ✺

22.11.2025 Red Star - Clermont 2:2 ✺

08.11.2025 Le Mans - Red Star 0:0 ✺

01.11.2025 Red Star - Saint-Étienne 2:1 ✺

28.10.2025 Dunkerque - Red Star 3:0 ✺

French Ligue 2 Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Troyes	27	16	6	5	44:27	17	54
2	St Etienne	27	15	5	7	46:29	17	50
3	Le Mans	28	13	11	4	41:29	12	50
4	Red Star	28	13	8	7	32:27	5	47
5	Rodez	28	11	11	6	35:33	2	44
6	Reims	27	11	10	6	39:26	13	43
7	Montpellier	28	12	6	10	33:25	8	42
8	Dunkerque	27	10	9	8	42:29	13	39
9	Annecy	27	11	6	10	35:30	5	39
10	Guingamp	27	10	9	8	38:38	0	39
11	Pau FC	28	10	9	9	40:44	-4	39
12	Boulogne	28	9	7	12	30:38	-8	34
13	Grenoble	28	6	12	10	26:33	-7	30
14	Clermont	28	7	7	14	30:37	-7	28
15	Nancy	28	7	7	14	24:40	-16	28
16	Amiens	28	6	5	17	33:50	-17	23
17	Laval	28	4	11	13	24:41	-17	23
18	Bastia	28	3	11	14	15:31	-16	20

      Promotion ~ Ligue 1
      Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
      Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
      Ligue 2 (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ National