Result
0:1
09/03/2026 at 16:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 25
- Referee: Malheiro H. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Croatia | SportKlub 1 |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 8 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Slovenia | SportKlub 5 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.50 | 1.23 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (320/406) | 84% (381/453) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.50 | 1.23 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.55 | 0.28 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 14 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (320/406) | 84% (381/453) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 47% (24/51) | 47% (22/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 52% (39/75) | 65% (89/137) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 31% (5/16) | 11% (1/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.60 | 0.68 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 27 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (15/24) | 60% (9/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 56 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 12 | 21 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 15 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.28 | 0.55 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.72 | 0.55 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 29', Ntoi A. 🟨,
- 35', Vrousai M. 🟨,
- 45+3', Diogo Bezerra (Penalty Awarded),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 60', Ntoi A. ↓, Ryan Guilherme ↑,
- 62', Rodriguez J. ↓, Sithole S. ↑,
- 70', 0 - 1, Blesa J. ⚽, Spikic D. (A),
- 71', Spikic D. ↓, Monteiro T. ↑,
- 71', Pohlmann O. ↓, Tome J. ↑,
- 74', Silva J. ↓, Tavares H. ↑,
- 74', Hodge J. ↓, Siebatcheu J. ↑,
- 80', Aiko M. ↓, Manso T. ↑,
- 80', Bebeto ↓, Ouattara M. ↑,
- 87', Abbey N. 🟨,
- 89', Abbey N. ↓, Buta L. ↑,
- 89', Blesa J. ↓, Petrasso F. ↑,
- 90+4', Diogo Bezerra 🟨,
- 90+5', Gustavo Mancha 🟨,
Chances of winning
Tondela
43.7% | Draw
29.8% | Rio Ave
26.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tondela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)Rio Ave has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (+0.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (+0.3%)
Tondela - Rio Ave Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.17 ↑
(2.09) |
3.17 ↓
(3.32) |
3.57
(3.57) |
5.6%
(6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Tondela - Rio Ave?
Users Predictions:
23 users predict this event. Tondela will win (votes: 12 - 52.2%). Rio Ave will win (votes: 2 - 8.7%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 39.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tondela: 31.8% – 72.6%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Tondela (votes: 2 - 20%). Rio Ave (votes: 2 - 20%). Tie (votes: 6 - 60%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- AH -0.25 - Rio Ave (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DNB - Rio Ave (2.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Tondela (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Rio Ave (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 6 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 1.
- Recent performances by Tondela have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Rio Ave has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Tondela might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Rio Ave: Aguilera Zamora B.
(Knee Injury)
Miszta C.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Tondela: Maviram E.
(Injury)
Rodriguez J.
(Injury)
Rony Lopes
(Injury)
- In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:24. (average 1.4:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Tondela won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1.2:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Tondela won against Rio Ave?
Tondela has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Rio Ave won against Tondela?
Rio Ave has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Tondela - Rio Ave were as follows:
05.10.2025
Rio Ave
-
Tondela
3:0
Latest results of Tondela
Latest results of Rio Ave
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 29 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 59:14 | 45 | 76 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 28 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 73:17 | 56 | 71 |
| 3 | Benfica | 29 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 61:18 | 43 | 69 |
| 4 | Braga | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 55:27 | 28 | 52 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 36:25 | 11 | 47 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 42:28 | 14 | 45 |
| 7 | Estoril | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 51:50 | 1 | 37 |
| 8 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 36 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 32:41 | -9 | 36 |
| 10 | Alverca | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 32:47 | -15 | 35 |
| 11 | Rio Ave | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 31:48 | -17 | 33 |
| 12 | Arouca | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 37:58 | -21 | 32 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 26:37 | -11 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 29 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 33:48 | -15 | 28 |
| 15 | Nacional | 29 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 31:41 | -10 | 25 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 28 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 28:52 | -24 | 25 |
| 17 | Tondela | 27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 19:44 | -25 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 29 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 19:62 | -43 | 12 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
