Mainz vs Rosenborg – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

28/08/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Mewa Arena (Mainz).

Conference League - Qualification - Final
Referee: van der Eijk S. (Ned)
Where to Watch on TV:


China	ZhiBo8
Croatia	SportKlub 2
Germany	SWR Fernsehen
Norway	VG+
Serbia	SportKlub 2
Slovenia	SportKlub 1

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.80	0.55
Ball Possession
52%	48%
Total shots
22	5
Shots on target
8	2
Big Chances
5	1
Corner Kicks
9	2
Passes
79% (287/365)	71% (253/358)
Yellow Cards
1	1
Expected Goals (xG)
2.80	0.55
xG on target (xGOT)
2.94	0.90
Total shots
22	5
Shots on target
8	2
Shots off target
12	1
Blocked Shots
2	2
Shots inside the Box
16	3
Shots outside the Box
6	2
Hit the Woodwork
2	0
Headed Goals
1	0
Big Chances
5	1
Corner Kicks
9	2
Touches in opposition box
36	12
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
6	2
Free Kicks
6	12
Passes
79% (287/365)	71% (253/358)
Long passes
53% (40/75)	40% (34/85)
Passes in final third
67% (101/151)	52% (53/102)
Crosses
38% (13/34)	22% (2/9)
Expected assists (xA)
1.90	0.73
Throw-ins
19	21
Fouls
12	7
Tackles
75% (15/20)	73% (8/11)
Duels won
50	46
Clearances
39	23
Interceptions
15	11
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
1	1
Goalkeeper Saves
1	4
xGOT faced
0.90	2.94
Goals prevented
-0.10	-1.06

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (3 - 1)
28', 1 - 0, Bell S. ⚽,
33', 1 - 1, Islamovic D. ⚽,
43', 2 - 1, Lee Jae-Sung ⚽, Caci A. (A),
44', 3 - 1, Weiper N. ⚽, Amiri N. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Fossum I. ↓, Reitan-Sunde J. ↑,
54', Vaananen S. 🟨,
58', 4 - 1, Amiri N. ⚽,
61', Saeter O. ↓, Ceide E. K. ↑,
71', Weiper N. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
71', Mwene P. ↓, Widmer S. ↑,
73', Nebel P. 🟨,
80', Caci A. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
90', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
90', Amiri N. ↓, Kawasaki S. ↑,

Chances of winning

Mainz
70.5%

Draw
17.8%

Rosenborg
11.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.1%

19.8%

14%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.8%

19.3%

13.6%

Mainz - Rosenborg Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.38)	5.2 ↑ (4.6)	7.98 ↑ (6.5)	6.6% (9.6%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

What is the prediction for Mainz - Rosenborg?

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 22 - 78.6%). Rosenborg will win (votes: 3 - 10.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 10.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 63.4% – 93.8%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Mainz will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.

Preview Facts

1st leg result: 1-2. 2nd leg.
In recent matches, Mainz has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Rosenborg is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Rosenborg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Mainz is the obvious favorite.
In the last 1 head-to-head match, Mainz won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

How many head-to-head matches has Mainz won against Rosenborg?

Mainz has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Rosenborg won against Mainz?

Rosenborg has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - Rosenborg were as follows:

21.08.2025 Rosenborg - Mainz 2:1

Latest results of Mainz

24.08.2025 Mainz - Köln 0:1 ✺

21.08.2025 Rosenborg - Mainz 2:1 ✺

18.08.2025 Dynamo Dresden - Mainz 0:1 ✺

09.08.2025 Mainz - Strasbourg 0:0 ✺

25.07.2025 Mainz - Seekirchen 5:0 ✺

Latest results of Rosenborg

21.08.2025 Rosenborg - Mainz 2:1 ✺

14.08.2025 Hammarby - Rosenborg 0:1 ✺

07.08.2025 Rosenborg - Hammarby 0:0 ✺

03.08.2025 KFUM-Kameratene Oslo - Rosenborg 4:1 ✺

31.07.2025 Banga Gargždai - Rosenborg 0:2 ✺

UEFA Europa Conference League Table

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Samsunspor	4	3	1	0	9:2	7	10
2	Strasbourg	4	3	1	0	7:4	3	10
3	Celje	4	3	0	1	8:4	4	9
4	Shakhtar Donetsk	4	3	0	1	8:5	3	9
5	Mainz	4	3	0	1	4:2	2	9
6	Rakow	4	2	2	0	7:2	5	8
7	AEK Larnaca	4	2	2	0	5:0	5	8
8	Drita	4	2	2	0	4:2	2	8
9	Jagiellonia	4	2	2	0	4:2	2	8
10	AEK Athens	4	2	1	1	9:4	5	7
11	Sparta Prague	4	2	1	1	5:2	3	7
12	Rayo Vallecano	4	2	1	1	8:6	2	7
13	Lausanne	4	2	1	1	5:3	2	7
14	Sigma Olomouc	4	2	1	1	5:5	0	7
15	Univ. Craiova	4	2	1	1	3:3	0	7
16	Lech Poznan	4	2	0	2	9:6	3	6
17	Fiorentina	4	2	0	2	6:3	3	6
18	Crystal Palace	4	2	0	2	6:4	2	6
19	Zrinjski	4	2	0	2	7:8	-1	6
20	AZ Alkmaar	4	2	0	2	4:7	-3	6
21	Omonia	4	1	2	1	4:3	1	5
22	KuPS	4	1	2	1	4:3	1	5
23	Noah	4	1	2	1	4:4	0	5
24	Rijeka	4	1	2	1	2:2	0	5
25	Shkendija	4	1	1	2	2:4	-2	4
26	Lincoln Red Imps	4	1	1	2	4:10	-6	4
27	Dyn. Kyiv	4	1	0	3	6:7	-1	3
28	Legia	4	1	0	3	3:5	-2	3
29	Slovan Bratislava	4	1	0	3	4:7	-3	3
30	Hamrun	4	1	0	3	3:6	-3	3
31	Hacken	4	0	2	2	4:6	-2	2
32	Breidablik	4	0	2	2	2:7	-5	2
33	Aberdeen	4	0	2	2	3:10	-7	2
34	Shelbourne	4	0	1	3	0:4	-4	1
35	Shamrock Rovers	4	0	1	3	3:9	-6	1
36	SK Rapid	4	0	0	4	2:12	-10	0

Promotion ~ Conference League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Promotion ~ Conference League (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)