Result
4:1
28/08/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Conference League - Qualification - Final
- Referee: van der Eijk S. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 China | ZhiBo8 |
 Croatia | SportKlub 2 |
 Germany | SWR Fernsehen |
 Norway | VG+ |
 Serbia | SportKlub 2 |
 Slovenia | SportKlub 1 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.80 | 0.55 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (287/365) | 71% (253/358) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.80 | 0.55 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.94 | 0.90 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 12 | 1 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 16 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 36 | 12 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (287/365) | 71% (253/358) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (40/75) | 40% (34/85) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 67% (101/151) | 52% (53/102) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 38% (13/34) | 22% (2/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.90 | 0.73 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 75% (15/20) | 73% (8/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 39 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.90 | 2.94 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.10 | -1.06 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (3 - 1)
- 28', 1 - 0, Bell S. ⚽,
- 33', 1 - 1, Islamovic D. ⚽,
- 43', 2 - 1, Lee Jae-Sung ⚽, Caci A. (A),
- 44', 3 - 1, Weiper N. ⚽, Amiri N. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Fossum I. ↓, Reitan-Sunde J. ↑,
- 54', Vaananen S. 🟨,
- 58', 4 - 1, Amiri N. ⚽,
- 61', Saeter O. ↓, Ceide E. K. ↑,
- 71', Weiper N. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
- 71', Mwene P. ↓, Widmer S. ↑,
- 73', Nebel P. 🟨,
- 80', Caci A. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
- 90', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
- 90', Amiri N. ↓, Kawasaki S. ↑,
Chances of winning
Mainz
70.5% | Draw
17.8% | Rosenborg
11.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)Rosenborg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-2.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rosenborg than the current prediction. (+2%)
Mainz - Rosenborg Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.34 ↓
(1.38) |
5.2 ↑
(4.6) |
7.98 ↑
(6.5) |
6.6%
(9.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Mainz - Rosenborg?
Users Predictions:
28 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 22 - 78.6%). Rosenborg will win (votes: 3 - 10.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 10.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 63.4% – 93.8%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- 1X2, 1st Half - Mainz (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Mainz will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 10 high ROI users predict this event. Mainz (votes: 9 - 90%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- 1st leg result: 1-2. 2nd leg.
- In recent matches, Mainz has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Rosenborg is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Rosenborg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Mainz is the obvious favorite.
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Mainz won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.
How many head-to-head matches has Mainz won against Rosenborg?
Mainz has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Rosenborg won against Mainz?
Rosenborg has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - Rosenborg were as follows:
21.08.2025
Rosenborg
-
Mainz
2:1
Latest results of Rosenborg
Draw
Play Offs1/16-finals| 1 | KuPS (21) | Lech Poznan (11) | 0 : 2 |
| 2 | Noah (19) | AZ Alkmaar (14) | 1 : 0 |
| 3 | Zrinjski (23) | Crystal Palace (10) | 1 : 1 |
| 4 | Jagiellonia (17) | Fiorentina (15) | 0 : 3 |
| 5 | Shkendija (22) | Samsunspor (12) | 0 : 1 |
| 6 | Drita (20) | Celje (13) | 2 : 3 |
| 7 | Sigma Olomouc (24) | Lausanne (9) | 1 : 1 |
| 8 | Omonia (18) | Rijeka (16) | 0 : 1 |
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano (5) | Bye | |
| 10 | Shakhtar Donetsk (6) | Bye | |
| 11 | AEK Athens (3) | Bye | |
| 12 | Sparta Prague (4) | Bye | |
| 13 | Mainz (7) | Bye | |
| 14 | AEK Larnaca (8) | Bye | |
| 15 | Strasbourg (1) | Bye | |
| 16 | Rakow (2) | Bye | |
