Burton Albion vs Rotherham United – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

17/02/2026 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Pirelli Stadium (Burton upon Trent).

League One - Round 33
Referee: Byrne A. (Eng)

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
0.77	0.62
Ball possession
49%	51%
Total shots
11	13
Shots on target
3	4
Big chances
1	2
Corner kicks
10	3
Passes
55% (180/328)	57% (199/347)
Yellow cards
1	2
Expected goals (xG)
0.77	0.62
xG on target (xGOT)
0.36	0.28
Total shots
11	13
Shots on target
3	4
Shots off target
4	4
Blocked shots
4	5
Shots inside the box
8	8
Shots outside the box
3	5
Hit the woodwork
0	0
Big chances
1	2
Corner kicks
10	3
Touches in opposition box
27	19
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
3	1
Free kicks
7	12
Passes
55% (180/328)	57% (199/347)
Long passes
27% (23/85)	29% (30/103)
Passes in final third
45% (67/149)	44% (55/125)
Crosses
16% (3/19)	16% (3/19)
Expected assists (xA)
1.11	0.66
Throw ins
26	35
Fouls
12	7
Tackles
63% (5/8)	76% (16/21)
Duels won
59	59
Clearances
23	38
Interceptions
9	9
Errors leading to shot
2	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
4	2
xGOT faced
0.28	0.36
Goals prevented
0.28	-0.64

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', Douglas H. ↓, Rafferty J. ↑,
23', 1 - 0, Shade T. ⚽, Lofthouse K. (A),
36', Yearwood D. 🟨,
45+1', Jules Z. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Yearwood D. ↓, Kaleta M. ↑,
54', Vancooten T. 🟨,
69', Larsson J. ↓, Cannon A. ↑,
69', Cover B. ↓, Watmore D. ↑,
81', Vancooten T. ↓, Moon J. ↑,
85', Kaleta M. ↓, Sousa L. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Burton Albion
43.3%

Draw
28.3%

Rotherham United
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

29.1%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5%

28.6%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burton Albion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Rotherham United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burton Albion than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rotherham United than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Burton Albion - Rotherham United Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (2.21)	3.31 ↑ (3.2)	3.28 ↑ (3.24)	6.8% (7.5%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Burton Albion - Rotherham United?

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Burton (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Burton Albion will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Burton Albion will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Burton (votes: 3 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burton won 2.
Burton is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Rotherham has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Burton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Burton won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:15. (average 1.6:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Burton won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:4. (average 1.7:0.7).

How many head-to-head matches has Burton Albion won against Rotherham United?

Burton Albion has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Rotherham United won against Burton Albion?

Rotherham United has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Burton Albion - Rotherham United were as follows:

04.11.2025 Rotherham United - Burton Albion 2:2

25.01.2025 Burton Albion - Rotherham United 4:2

14.09.2024 Rotherham United - Burton Albion 2:2

Latest results of Burton Albion

14.02.2026 Burton Albion - West Ham United 0:1 ✺

07.02.2026 Port Vale - Burton Albion 2:2 ✺

03.02.2026 Burton Albion - Doncaster Rovers 1:2 ✺

31.01.2026 Burton Albion - Cardiff City 2:2 ✺

27.01.2026 Bolton Wanderers - Burton Albion 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Rotherham United

07.02.2026 Rotherham United - Cardiff City 0:3 ✺

31.01.2026 Exeter City - Rotherham United 0:4 ✺

27.01.2026 Rotherham United - Northampton Town 2:1 ✺

24.01.2026 Rotherham United - AFC Wimbledon 1:1 ✺

17.01.2026 Stockport County - Rotherham United 3:2 ✺

English League One Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lincoln	39	25	9	5	74:34	40	84
2	Cardiff	39	23	8	8	73:41	32	77
3	Bolton	39	17	15	7	55:39	16	66
4	Bradford City	39	19	8	12	49:44	5	65
5	Stockport County	37	17	9	11	51:48	3	60
6	Stevenage	38	17	9	12	41:38	3	60
7	Plymouth	39	18	5	16	60:54	6	59
8	Reading	39	15	13	11	57:51	6	58
9	Huddersfield	39	16	9	14	59:51	8	57
10	Wycombe	39	15	11	13	55:43	12	56
11	Luton	39	15	10	14	52:49	3	55
12	Peterborough	38	15	5	18	57:52	5	50
13	Barnsley	37	13	11	13	59:60	-1	50
14	AFC Wimbledon	38	14	8	16	49:55	-6	50
15	Mansfield	37	12	13	12	47:41	6	49
16	Leyton Orient	38	14	6	18	55:62	-7	48
17	Doncaster	38	13	8	17	41:59	-18	47
18	Burton	39	12	10	17	44:54	-10	46
19	Wigan	38	11	12	15	41:51	-10	45
20	Exeter	39	11	9	19	42:52	-10	42
21	Blackpool	39	11	9	19	46:63	-17	42
22	Rotherham	38	9	9	20	35:58	-23	36
23	Northampton	39	9	8	22	33:56	-23	35
24	Port Vale	36	7	10	19	29:49	-20	31

      Promotion ~ Championship
      Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: )
      Relegation ~ League Two