Result
0:2
11/01/2026 at 08:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie D - Group I - Round 19
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 16', 0 - 1, ⚽,
- 42', 0 - 2, ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
Chances of winning
Castrumfavara
24.9% | Draw
30.7% | Sambiase
44.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Castrumfavara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Castrumfavara's form might have worsened.Sambiase has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sambiase's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castrumfavara than the current prediction. (+11.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Castrumfavara, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sambiase than the current prediction. (-7.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sambiase, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Castrumfavara - Sambiase Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.62 ↑
(2.52) |
2.94 ↓
(3.4) |
2.03 ↓
(2.38) |
10.8%
(11.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
Preview Facts
- The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 in the zone Serie D ~ Group I (Play Out: ) and 7).
- Castrumfavara is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- In recent matches, Sambiase has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Sambiase may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Sambiase has had a series of home games.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Castrumfavara won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).
- Including home match between the teams, Castrumfavara won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.
How many head-to-head matches has Castrumfavara won against Sambiase?
Castrumfavara has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Sambiase won against Castrumfavara?
Sambiase has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Castrumfavara - Sambiase were as follows:
14.09.2025
Sambiase
-
Castrumfavara
1:1
23.02.2025
Castrumfavara
-
Sambiase
1:2
23.10.2024
Sambiase
-
Castrumfavara
1:1
Latest results of Castrumfavara
Latest results of Sambiase
Italian Serie D - Group I Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Savoia | 31 | 17 | 9 | 5 | 54:28 | 26 | 60 |
| 2 | Nissa | 31 | 17 | 9 | 5 | 43:25 | 18 | 60 |
| 3 | Reggina | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 34:19 | 15 | 54 |
| 4 | Athletic Palermo | 31 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 53:41 | 12 | 54 |
| 5 | Gelbison | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 40:31 | 9 | 51 |
| 6 | Igea Virtus | 30 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 45:27 | 18 | 49 |
| 7 | Sambiase | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 34:25 | 9 | 49 |
| 8 | Milazzo | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 30:32 | -2 | 43 |
| 9 | Gela | 31 | 13 | 4 | 14 | 39:39 | 0 | 42 |
| 10 | Vigor Lamezia | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 37:32 | 5 | 36 |
| 11 | Enna | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 47:45 | 2 | 35 |
| 12 | USD Ragusa | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 22:32 | -10 | 32 |
| 13 | AS Acireale | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 36:47 | -11 | 31 |
| 14 | Castrumfavara | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 30:43 | -13 | 31 |
| 15 | Vibonese | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 27:41 | -14 | 31 |
| 16 | ACR Messina | 31 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 25:31 | -6 | 27 |
| 17 | Sancataldese | 31 | 7 | 6 | 18 | 30:45 | -15 | 27 |
| 18 | Paterno | 31 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 20:63 | -43 | 19 |
Promotion
Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group I (Play Offs: )
Serie D ~ Group I (Play Out: )
Relegation
