Atlético Mineiro vs Santos – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Atlético Mineiro - Santos
Result
1:1
14/09/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 23
  • Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
israelIsraelSport 3
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.311.28
Ball Possession
53%47%
Total shots
1712
Shots on target
55
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
73
Passes
85% (398/467)84% (356/426)
Yellow Cards
23
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.311.28
xG on target (xGOT)
0.801.93
Total shots
1712
Shots on target
55
Shots off target
84
Blocked Shots
43
Shots inside the Box
135
Shots outside the Box
47
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
73
Touches in opposition box
2616
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
1412
Passes
85% (398/467)84% (356/426)
Long passes
36% (16/44)41% (18/44)
Passes in final third
80% (98/123)71% (79/111)
Crosses
26% (7/27)29% (2/7)
Expected assists (xA)
1.230.65
Throw-ins
2123
Fouls
1215
Tackles
71% (20/28)61% (11/18)
Duels won
5946
Clearances
1426
Interceptions
59
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
44
xGOT faced
1.930.80
Goals prevented
0.93-0.20

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 32', Ze Ivaldo 🟨,
  • 45+4', Hulk 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Fausto Vera , Alexsander ,
  • 46', Rony , Igor Gomes ,
  • 55', Ze Ivaldo 🟨,
  • 59', Guilherme , Frias A. ,
  • 59', 1 - 0, Igor Gomes , Gustavo Scarpa (A),
  • 64', Escobar G. 🟨,
  • 68', Gabriel Brazao , Diogenes ,
  • 70', Victor Hugo , Caballero G. ,
  • 75', Igor Gomes 🟨,
  • 77', Gustavo Scarpa , Reinier ,
  • 81', Joao Schmidt , Thaciano ,
  • 81', Neymar , Robson Junior ,
  • 81', Diaz L. , Tiquinho Soares ,
  • 87', 1 - 1, Tiquinho Soares (Pen),
  • 90+4', Cuello , Dudu ,

Chances of winning


Atlético Mineiro
61.8%
Draw
26.4%
Santos
11.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
51.5% 27.1% 21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.7% 30.4% 19.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético Mineiro's performance.
  • Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Santos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-4.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+7.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Santos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Atlético Mineiro - Santos Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.76
    (1.83)
    4.34
    (3.49)
    10.19
    (4.42)
    -10.3%
    (5.8%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    What is the prediction for Atlético Mineiro - Santos?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 3 - 60%). Santos (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).
  • Users Predictions: Atlético Mineiro will win (15 of 18 users predict this - 83.33%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 66.11%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 14 and 16)
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 2.
    • Atlético MG is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Santos has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Atlético MG may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Atlético MG has had a series of away games.
    • In this match, Atlético MG is a strong favorite.
    • There will not play in Atlético MG: Alonso J. (Yellow Cards) Cadu (Knee Injury) Caio Maia (Knee Injury) Patrick Silva (Broken tailbone) Renzo Saravia (Muscle Injury) Ruan Tressoldi (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Santos: Arao W. (Muscle Injury) Joao Basso (Muscle Injury) Rollheiser B. (Yellow Cards)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 23:29. (average 1.2:1.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Atlético MG won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:4. (average 1.6:0.4).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético Mineiro - Santos were as follows:
    16.04.2025 Santos - Atlético Mineiro 2:0
    27.08.2023 Atlético Mineiro - Santos 2:0
    23.04.2023 Santos - Atlético Mineiro 0:0
    05.10.2022 Santos - Atlético Mineiro 1:2
    Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
    Latest results of Santos
    31.08.2025 Santos - Fluminense 0:0
    24.08.2025 Bahia - Santos 2:0
    17.08.2025 Santos - Vasco da Gama 0:6
    10.08.2025 Cruzeiro - Santos 1:2
    04.08.2025 Santos - Juventude 3:1
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Palmeiras28194553:262761
    2Flamengo RJ28187356:154161
    3Cruzeiro29168542:212156
    4Mirassol301510552:312155
    5Bahia30147940:34649
    6Botafogo RJ29137939:261346
    7Fluminense291351136:35144
    8Sao Paulo301181133:33041
    9Vasco291161246:41539
    10Corinthians301091132:35-339
    11Bragantino291061334:44-1036
    12Atletico-MG29991127:32-536
    13Gremio29991130:37-736
    14Ceara29981227:28-135
    15Internacional30981335:43-835
    16Santos28871328:40-1231
    17Vitoria307101327:44-1731
    18Juventude29751723:53-3026
    19Fortaleza28661626:44-1824
    20Sport Recife292111622:46-2417

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