Result
1:1
14/09/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 23
- Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Israel | Sport 3 |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.31 | 1.28 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 53% | 47% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (398/467) | 84% (356/426) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.31 | 1.28 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.80 | 1.93 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 13 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 26 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (398/467) | 84% (356/426) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 36% (16/44) | 41% (18/44) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 80% (98/123) | 71% (79/111) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 26% (7/27) | 29% (2/7) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.23 | 0.65 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 21 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 71% (20/28) | 61% (11/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 59 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 14 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.93 | 0.80 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.93 | -0.20 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 32', Ze Ivaldo 🟨,
- 45+4', Hulk 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Fausto Vera ↓, Alexsander ↑,
- 46', Rony ↓, Igor Gomes ↑,
- 55', Ze Ivaldo 🟨,
- 59', Guilherme ↓, Frias A. ↑,
- 59', 1 - 0, Igor Gomes ⚽, Gustavo Scarpa (A),
- 64', Escobar G. 🟨,
- 68', Gabriel Brazao ↓, Diogenes ↑,
- 70', Victor Hugo ↓, Caballero G. ↑,
- 75', Igor Gomes 🟨,
- 77', Gustavo Scarpa ↓, Reinier ↑,
- 81', Joao Schmidt ↓, Thaciano ↑,
- 81', Neymar ↓, Robson Junior ↑,
- 81', Diaz L. ↓, Tiquinho Soares ↑,
- 87', 1 - 1, Tiquinho Soares (Pen),
- 90+4', Cuello ↓, Dudu ↑,
Chances of winning
Atlético Mineiro
61.8% | Draw
26.4% | Santos
11.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético Mineiro's performance.Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Santos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-4.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+7.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Santos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Atlético Mineiro - Santos Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.76 ↓
(1.83) |
4.34 ↑
(3.49) |
10.19 ↑
(4.42) |
-10.3%
(5.8%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Atlético Mineiro - Santos?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 3 - 60%). Santos (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).
Users Predictions:
Atlético Mineiro will win
(15 of 18 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.11% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 14 and 16)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 2.
- Atlético MG is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Santos has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Atlético MG may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Atlético MG has had a series of away games.
- In this match, Atlético MG is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Atlético MG: Alonso J.
(Yellow Cards)
Cadu
(Knee Injury)
Caio Maia
(Knee Injury)
Patrick Silva
(Broken tailbone)
Renzo Saravia
(Muscle Injury)
Ruan Tressoldi
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Santos: Arao W.
(Muscle Injury)
Joao Basso
(Muscle Injury)
Rollheiser B.
(Yellow Cards)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 23:29. (average 1.2:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Atlético MG won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:4. (average 1.6:0.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Mineiro won against Santos?
Atlético Mineiro has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Santos won against Atlético Mineiro?
Santos has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético Mineiro - Santos were as follows:
16.04.2025
Santos
-
Atlético Mineiro
2:0
27.08.2023
Atlético Mineiro
-
Santos
2:0
23.04.2023
Santos
-
Atlético Mineiro
0:0
05.10.2022
Santos
-
Atlético Mineiro
1:2
Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 25 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 50:12 | 38 | 55 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 24 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 39:19 | 20 | 52 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 39:19 | 20 | 51 |
| 4 | Botafogo RJ | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 37:21 | 16 | 43 |
| 5 | Mirassol | 25 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 42:25 | 17 | 43 |
| 6 | Bahia | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 33:30 | 3 | 40 |
| 7 | Sao Paulo | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 29:25 | 4 | 38 |
| 8 | Fluminense | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 30:31 | -1 | 35 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 32:38 | -6 | 33 |
| 10 | Gremio | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 28:32 | -4 | 33 |
| 11 | Ceara | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 23:24 | -1 | 31 |
| 12 | Vasco | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 38:38 | 0 | 30 |
| 13 | Corinthians | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 26:32 | -6 | 30 |
| 14 | Atletico-MG | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 22:26 | -4 | 29 |
| 15 | Internacional | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 30:38 | -8 | 29 |
| 16 | Santos | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 25:35 | -10 | 28 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 21:38 | -17 | 25 |
| 18 | Juventude | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 20:46 | -26 | 23 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 24:40 | -16 | 21 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 24 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 18:37 | -19 | 15 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
