Result
0:1
15/02/2026 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Paulista - Round 8
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Caze TV, Claro TV+, HBO Max, R7, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.49 | 1.12 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 37% | 63% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (282/343) | 89% (523/586) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.49 | 1.12 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.09 | 2.34 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 9 | 26 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (282/343) | 89% (523/586) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 56% (25/45) | 67% (35/52) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (56/75) | 74% (130/175) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 36% (5/14) | 27% (4/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.45 | 1.12 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 20 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 79% (11/14) | 65% (13/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 35 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 22 | 15 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.34 | 0.09 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.34 | 0.09 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 3', Pedro Vitor 🟨,
- 6', Augusto 🟨,
- 45+3', Marcao Silva 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 62', Marcao Silva ↓, Junior Urso ↑,
- 62', Pedro Vitor ↓, Pablo Dyego ↑,
- 62', Gui Negao ↓, Yuri Alberto ↑,
- 63', Allan 🟨,
- 67', 0 - 1, Andre ⚽, Yuri Alberto (A),
- 71', Augusto ↓, Lucas Rian ↑,
- 72', Vitinho ↓, Kayke ↑,
- 72', Allan ↓, Raniele ↑,
- 78', Romisson ↓, Rodrigo Andrade ↑,
- 79', Hugo Sanches ↓, Rodrigo Ferreira ↑,
- 90', Yuri Alberto ↓, Gabriel Paulista ↑,
- 90', Milans P. ↓, Matheuzinho ↑,
Chances of winning
São Bernardo
22.4% | Draw
28.5% | Corinthians
49% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
São Bernardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that São Bernardo's form might have worsened.Corinthians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Corinthians's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+4.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (-4.6%)
São Bernardo - Corinthians Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.16 ↑
(3.3) |
3.28 ↑
(3.15) |
1.91 ↓
(2.15) |
6.9%
(8.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Bernardo won 2.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- Corinthians may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Corinthians has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Corinthians is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in São Bernardo: Foguinho
(Red Card)
Gonzaga W.
(Red Card)
- There will not play in Corinthians: Hugo
(Injury)
Kaio Cesar
(Injury)
Martinez J.
(Inactive)
Pereira M.
(Yellow Cards)
- In the last 9 head-to-head matches, São Bernardo won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 4:13. (average 0.4:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, São Bernardo won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 0.8:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has São Bernardo won against Corinthians?
São Bernardo has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Corinthians won against São Bernardo?
Corinthians has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between São Bernardo - Corinthians were as follows:
09.02.2025
Corinthians
-
São Bernardo
2:0
14.03.2024
São Bernardo
-
Corinthians
0:2
27.01.2024
São Bernardo
-
Corinthians
1:0
09.02.2023
São Bernardo
-
Corinthians
2:0
Latest results of São Bernardo
Latest results of Corinthians
Draw
Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Santos (8) | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Portuguesa (4) | Corinthians (5) | 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Palmeiras (2) | Capivariano (7) | 4 : 0 |
| 4 | Bragantino (3) | Sao Paulo (6) | 1 : 2 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Corinthians (5) | |
| 2 | Palmeiras (2) | Sao Paulo (6) | |
Final
