Alianza Lima vs São Paulo: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Copa Libertadores
Soccer Copa Libertadores Alianza Lima - São Paulo
Result
0:2
06/05/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4
Alianza Lima - São Paulo - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.241.02
Ball Possession
47%53%
Total shots
1013
Shots on target
13
Big Chances
03
Corner Kicks
43
Passes
81% (336/414)84% (394/467)
Yellow Cards
22
Red Cards
10
Expected Goals (xG)
0.241.02
xG on target (xGOT)
0.041.16
Total shots
1013
Shots on target
13
Shots off target
68
Blocked Shots
32
Shots inside the Box
38
Shots outside the Box
75
Hit the Woodwork
02
Big Chances
03
Corner Kicks
43
Touches in opposition box
1216
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
15
Free Kicks
1310
Passes
81% (336/414)84% (394/467)
Long passes
48% (21/44)50% (24/48)
Passes in final third
65% (77/118)73% (74/102)
Crosses
33% (5/15)27% (3/11)
Expected assists (xA)
0.740.55
Throw-ins
1411
Fouls
1013
Tackles
64% (9/14)50% (9/18)
Duels won
3850
Clearances
1624
Interceptions
75
Errors leading to shot
02
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
11
xGOT faced
1.160.04
Goals prevented
-0.840.04

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 35', 0 - 1, Andre Silva ⚽, Matheus Alves (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Lavandeira Hernandez P. ↓, Cari P. ↑,
  • 56', Paolo Guerrero ↓, Barcos H. ↑,
  • 61', Matheus Alves ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
  • 69', Garces R. 🟥,
  • 72', Soares C. ↓, Lucas Ferreira ↑,
  • 78', Castillo J. 🟨,
  • 81', Franco A. 🟨,
  • 82', Ferreira ↓, Luciano ↑,
  • 82', Marcos Antonio ↓, Bobadilla D. ↑,
  • 83', Quevedo K. ↓, Delgado J. ↑,
  • 83', Castillo J. ↓, Lagos R. ↑,
  • 89', 0 - 2, Andre Silva ⚽, Luciano (A),
  • 90+4', Ferraresi N. 🟨,
  • 90+4', Trauco M. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Alianza Lima
26.1%		Draw
32.8%		São Paulo
41.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
28.9% 32% 39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.8% 33.3% 40.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Alianza Lima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)
  • São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+1.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-0.5%)
    •

    Alianza Lima - São Paulo Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 3.62 ↑
    (3.3)    		 2.87 ↓
    (2.98)    		 2.29 ↓
    (2.43)    		 6%
    (5%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
    •
    What is the prediction for Alianza Lima - São Paulo?
  • Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Alianza Lima will win (votes: 1 - 5.9%). São Paulo will win (votes: 10 - 58.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 35.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 35.4% – 82.2%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): São Paulo will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.
    • Alianza Lima may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • São Paulo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Alianza Lima: Archimbaud J. (Injury) Cantero A. (Muscle Injury) Enrique G. (Yellow Cards) Zambrano C. (Red Card)
    • There will not play in São Paulo: Henrique Carmo (Inactive) Igor Vinicius (Injury) Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Oscar (Hamstring Injury) Pablo Maia (Ankle Injury) Robert Arboleda (Muscle Injury)
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Alianza Lima won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Alianza Lima - São Paulo were as follows:
    10.04.2025 São Paulo - Alianza Lima 2:2
    Latest results of Alianza Lima
    02.05.2025 Alianza Lima - Cienciano 0:1 ✺
    22.04.2025 Alianza Lima - Talleres de Córdoba 3:2 ✺
    18.04.2025 Alianza Lima - Los Chankas 1:0
    14.04.2025 Deportivo Garcilaso - Alianza Lima 0:1 ✺
    10.04.2025 São Paulo - Alianza Lima 2:2 ✺
    Latest results of São Paulo
    02.05.2025 São Paulo - Fortaleza 0:0 ✺
    29.04.2025 São Paulo - Náutico Capibaribe 2:1 ✺
    26.04.2025 Ceará - São Paulo 1:1 ✺
    23.04.2025 Libertad Asuncion - São Paulo 0:2 ✺
    20.04.2025 São Paulo - Santos 2:1 ✺
    Copa Libertadores Table
    Group Stage

    Group A
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Estudiantes L.P640211:5612
    2Botafogo RJ64028:5312
    3U. De Chile63128:6210
    4Carabobo60152:13-111


    Group B
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1River Plate633013:7612
    2U. de Deportes62224:408
    3Ind. del Valle62228:11-38
    4Barcelona SC61144:7-34


    Group C
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1LDU Quito63218:4411
    2Flamengo RJ63216:3311
    3Central Cordoba63217:7011
    4Dep. Tachira60064:11-70


    Group D
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Sao Paulo642010:4614
    2Libertad Asuncion62316:519
    3Alianza Lima61237:11-45
    4Talleres Cordoba61145:8-34


    Group E
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Racing Club641114:31113
    2Fortaleza62228:538
    3Bucaramanga61326:10-46
    4Colo Colo61235:15-105


    Group F
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Internacional632112:8411
    2Atl. Nacional63037:619
    3Bahia62135:7-27
    4Nacional62137:10-37


    Group G
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Palmeiras660017:41318
    2Cerro Porteno62137:11-47
    3Bolivar620412:1116
    4Sporting Cristal61146:16-104


    Group H
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Velez Sarsfield632111:4711
    2Penarol63219:4511
    3SA Bulo Bulo62045:15-106
    4Olimpia Asuncion61239:11-25

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
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    Which TV channels are streaming of Alianza Lima - São Paulo?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    africaAfricaSporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium
    argentinaArgentinaDisney+, FOX Sports 3
    asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3
    australiaAustraliabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
    bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
    brazilBrazilClaro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
    bulgariaBulgariaMax Sport 4
    canadaCanadabeIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
    chileChileDisney+
    colombiaColombiaDisney+, ESPN 2
    croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
    georgiaGeorgiaSilk Universal
    germanyGermanySportdigital+
    greeceGreeceCOSMOTE Sport 3
    indonesiaIndonesiaMola TV
    israelIsraelSport 2
    italyItalyComo TV
    mexicoMexicoDisney+, ESPN 2
    peruPeruDisney+, ESPN
    portugalPortugalSport TV2
    russiaRussiaOkko Sport
    serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 3
    south-americaSouth-americaESPN 5 South, ESPN South, ViX Latin America
    uruguayUruguayDisney+
    usaUsabeIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV
    venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, Inter
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