Result
0:2
06/05/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium |
 Argentina | Disney+, FOX Sports 3 |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3 |
 Australia | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2 |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2 |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Bulgaria | Max Sport 4 |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+, ESPN 2 |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go |
 Georgia | Silk Universal |
 Germany | Sportdigital+ |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3 |
 Indonesia | Mola TV |
 Israel | Sport 2 |
 Italy | Como TV |
 Mexico | Disney+, ESPN 2 |
 Peru | Disney+, ESPN |
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 3 |
 South-america | ESPN 5 South, ESPN South, ViX Latin America |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV |
 Venezuela | Disney+, Inter |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.24 | 1.02 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (336/414) | 84% (394/467) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.24 | 1.02 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.04 | 1.16 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 12 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (336/414) | 84% (394/467) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 48% (21/44) | 50% (24/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 65% (77/118) | 73% (74/102) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (5/15) | 27% (3/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.74 | 0.55 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 64% (9/14) | 50% (9/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 38 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.16 | 0.04 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.84 | 0.04 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 35', 0 - 1, Andre Silva ⚽, Matheus Alves (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Lavandeira Hernandez P. ↓, Cari P. ↑,
- 56', Paolo Guerrero ↓, Barcos H. ↑,
- 61', Matheus Alves ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
- 69', Garces R. 🟥,
- 72', Soares C. ↓, Lucas Ferreira ↑,
- 78', Castillo J. 🟨,
- 81', Franco A. 🟨,
- 82', Ferreira ↓, Luciano ↑,
- 82', Marcos Antonio ↓, Bobadilla D. ↑,
- 83', Quevedo K. ↓, Delgado J. ↑,
- 83', Castillo J. ↓, Lagos R. ↑,
- 89', 0 - 2, Andre Silva ⚽, Luciano (A),
- 90+4', Ferraresi N. 🟨,
- 90+4', Trauco M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Alianza Lima
26.1% | Draw
32.8% | São Paulo
41.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alianza Lima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+1.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-0.5%)
Alianza Lima - São Paulo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.62 ↑
(3.3) |
2.87 ↓
(2.98) |
2.29 ↓
(2.43) |
6%
(5%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
What is the prediction for Alianza Lima - São Paulo?
Users Predictions:
17 users predict this event. Alianza Lima will win (votes: 1 - 5.9%). São Paulo will win (votes: 10 - 58.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 35.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 35.4% – 82.2%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): São Paulo will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.
- Alianza Lima may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- São Paulo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Alianza Lima: Archimbaud J.
(Injury)
Cantero A.
(Muscle Injury)
Enrique G.
(Yellow Cards)
Zambrano C.
(Red Card)
- There will not play in São Paulo: Henrique Carmo
(Inactive)
Igor Vinicius
(Injury)
Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Luiz Gustavo
(Contusion)
Oscar
(Hamstring Injury)
Pablo Maia
(Ankle Injury)
Robert Arboleda
(Muscle Injury)
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Alianza Lima won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.
How many head-to-head matches has Alianza Lima won against São Paulo?
Alianza Lima has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Alianza Lima?
São Paulo has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Alianza Lima - São Paulo were as follows:
10.04.2025
São Paulo
-
Alianza Lima
2:2
Latest results of Alianza Lima
Latest results of São Paulo
Draw
Play Offs1/8-finals| 1 | Atl. Nacional | Sao Paulo | |
| 2 | Botafogo RJ | LDU Quito | |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | River Plate | |
| 4 | U. de Deportes | Palmeiras | |
| 5 | Fortaleza | Velez Sarsfield | 0 : 0 |
| 6 | Penarol | Racing Club | |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | Estudiantes L.P. | |
| 8 | Flamengo RJ | Internacional | |
Quarter-finalsSemi-finalsFinal
