Result
1:0
14/07/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 20
- Referee: Andrade Arreaga J. C. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
---|
Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping |
Peru | Zapping Sports |
Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
1.15 | 0.99 |
Ball Possession |
---|
57% | 43% |
Total shots |
---|
19 | 14 |
Shots on target |
---|
7 | 4 |
Big Chances |
---|
2 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
5 | 2 |
Passes |
---|
78% (317/408) | 70% (215/306) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
5 | 3 |
Red Cards |
---|
1 | 0 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
1.15 | 0.99 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
0.54 | 0.29 |
Total shots |
---|
19 | 14 |
Shots on target |
---|
7 | 4 |
Shots off target |
---|
9 | 6 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
3 | 4 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
12 | 7 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
7 | 7 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 0 |
Big Chances |
---|
2 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
5 | 2 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
21 | 17 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
1 | 0 |
Offsides |
---|
1 | 1 |
Free Kicks |
---|
9 | 13 |
Passes |
---|
78% (317/408) | 70% (215/306) |
Long passes |
---|
54% (34/63) | 42% (24/57) |
Passes in final third |
---|
61% (48/79) | 51% (37/73) |
Crosses |
---|
24% (5/21) | 31% (4/13) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
0.80 | 0.88 |
Throw-ins |
---|
31 | 19 |
Fouls |
---|
13 | 9 |
Tackles |
---|
53% (8/15) | 56% (9/16) |
Duels won |
---|
61 | 50 |
Clearances |
---|
29 | 32 |
Interceptions |
---|
12 | 16 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
4 | 6 |
xGOT faced |
---|
0.29 | 0.54 |
Goals prevented |
---|
0.29 | -0.46 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 39', Borja J. 🟨,
- 44', Ontaneda J. 🟨,
- 45', Spina A. L. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 67', Mina A. ↓, Gruezo E. ↑,
- 67', Montenegro B. ↓, Carcelen Carabali M. A. ↑,
- 68', Pazmino D. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
- 73', Reasco D. ↓, Cifuentes J. ↑,
- 73', Cela A. ↓, Branda V. ↑,
- 74', Jaramilo R. 🟨,
- 78', Carcelen Carabali M. A. 🟨,
- 79', Zambrano C. ↓, Miranda B. ↑,
- 80', Borja J. ↓, Hernandez B. ↑,
- 80', Chala J. ↓, Borja F. ↑,
- 80', Caicedo E. 🟨,
- 90', Branda V. 🟨,
- 90+1', 1 - 0, Miranda B. ⚽, Gruezo E. (A),
- 90+3', Gruezo E. ↓, Rolon C. ↑,
- 90+7', Carcelen Carabali M. A. 🟨,
Chances of winning
SD Aucas 51.4% | Draw 26% | El Nacional 22.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
SD Aucas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (+3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-1.8%)
SD Aucas - El Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
1.79 ↑ (1.74) |
3.61 ↓ (3.7) |
4.16 ↓ (4.4) |
7.8% (7.4%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for SD Aucas - El Nacional?
Users Predictions:
17 users predict this event. Aucas will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). El Nacional will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for El Nacional: 42% – 87.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): El Nacional will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 1.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- El Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Aucas is seen as the favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 8 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 28:20. (average 1.4:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Aucas won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:8. (average 1.3:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has SD Aucas won against El Nacional?
SD Aucas has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has El Nacional won against SD Aucas?
El Nacional has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between SD Aucas - El Nacional were as follows:
24.08.2024
El Nacional
-
SD Aucas
0:0
20.03.2024
SD Aucas
-
El Nacional
3:4
05.08.2023
El Nacional
-
SD Aucas
2:2
26.02.2023
SD Aucas
-
El Nacional
0:2
Latest results of SD Aucas
Latest results of El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Ind. del Valle | 23 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 43:19 | 24 | 49 |
2 | Barcelona SC | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 35:26 | 9 | 41 |
3 | LDU Quito | 22 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 38:21 | 17 | 40 |
4 | Orense | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 25:26 | -1 | 37 |
5 | Aucas | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 30:27 | 3 | 35 |
6 | Dep. Cuenca | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 27:24 | 3 | 35 |
7 | Libertad | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 33:28 | 5 | 34 |
8 | U. Catolica | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 38:29 | 9 | 31 |
9 | Emelec | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 20:26 | -6 | 28 |
10 | Delfin | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 21:31 | -10 | 26 |
11 | EL Nacional | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 26:33 | -7 | 25 |
12 | Vinotinto | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 26:30 | -4 | 23 |
13 | Macara | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 21:26 | -5 | 23 |
14 | Manta | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 29:38 | -9 | 23 |
15 | Tecnico U | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 20:33 | -13 | 19 |
16 | Mushuc Runa | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 24:39 | -15 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )