Result
1:0
14/07/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 20
- Referee: Andrade Arreaga J. C. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.15 | 0.99 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 57% | 43% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (317/408) | 70% (215/306) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.15 | 0.99 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.54 | 0.29 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 21 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (317/408) | 70% (215/306) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 54% (34/63) | 42% (24/57) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (48/79) | 51% (37/73) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 24% (5/21) | 31% (4/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.80 | 0.88 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 31 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 53% (8/15) | 56% (9/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 61 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 29 | 32 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 16 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.29 | 0.54 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.29 | -0.46 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 39', Borja J. 🟨,
- 44', Ontaneda J. 🟨,
- 45', Spina A. L. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 67', Mina A. ↓, Gruezo E. ↑,
- 67', Montenegro B. ↓, Carcelen Carabali M. A. ↑,
- 68', Pazmino D. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
- 73', Reasco D. ↓, Cifuentes J. ↑,
- 73', Cela A. ↓, Branda V. ↑,
- 74', Jaramilo R. 🟨,
- 78', Carcelen Carabali M. A. 🟨,
- 79', Zambrano C. ↓, Miranda B. ↑,
- 80', Borja J. ↓, Hernandez B. ↑,
- 80', Chala J. ↓, Borja F. ↑,
- 80', Caicedo E. 🟨,
- 90', Branda V. 🟨,
- 90+1', 1 - 0, Miranda B. ⚽, Gruezo E. (A),
- 90+3', Gruezo E. ↓, Rolon C. ↑,
- 90+7', Carcelen Carabali M. A. 🟨,
Chances of winning
SD Aucas
51.4% | Draw
26% | El Nacional
22.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
SD Aucas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (+3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-1.8%)
SD Aucas - El Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.79 ↑
(1.74) |
3.61 ↓
(3.7) |
4.16 ↓
(4.4) |
7.8%
(7.4%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for SD Aucas - El Nacional?
Users Predictions:
17 users predict this event. Aucas will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). El Nacional will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for El Nacional: 42% – 87.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): El Nacional will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 1.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- El Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Aucas is seen as the favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 8 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 28:20. (average 1.4:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Aucas won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:8. (average 1.3:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has SD Aucas won against El Nacional?
SD Aucas has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has El Nacional won against SD Aucas?
El Nacional has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between SD Aucas - El Nacional were as follows:
24.08.2024
El Nacional
-
SD Aucas
0:0
20.03.2024
SD Aucas
-
El Nacional
3:4
05.08.2023
El Nacional
-
SD Aucas
2:2
26.02.2023
SD Aucas
-
El Nacional
0:2
Latest results of SD Aucas
Latest results of El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. del Valle | 25 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 45:20 | 25 | 53 |
| 2 | LDU Quito | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 41:24 | 17 | 44 |
| 3 | Barcelona SC | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 37:29 | 8 | 44 |
| 4 | Libertad | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 40:34 | 6 | 41 |
| 5 | Dep. Cuenca | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 30:25 | 5 | 39 |
| 6 | Aucas | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 35:37 | -2 | 38 |
| 7 | Orense | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 27:29 | -2 | 38 |
| 8 | U. Catolica | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 46:33 | 13 | 36 |
| 9 | Emelec | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 24:28 | -4 | 35 |
| 10 | EL Nacional | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 30:35 | -5 | 28 |
| 11 | Delfin | 25 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 24:37 | -13 | 28 |
| 12 | Macara | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 23:26 | -3 | 27 |
| 13 | Manta | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 31:42 | -11 | 25 |
| 14 | Tecnico U | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 24:35 | -11 | 25 |
| 15 | Vinotinto | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 29:36 | -7 | 24 |
| 16 | Mushuc Runa ✔ | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 27:43 | -16 | 20 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
