SD Aucas vs El Nacional – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Ecuadorian Liga Pro SD Aucas - El Nacional
Result
1:0
14/07/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Liga Pro - Round 20
  • Referee: Andrade Arreaga J. C. (Ecu)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
ecuadorEcuadorCanal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
peruPeruZapping Sports
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.150.99
Ball Possession
57%43%
Total shots
1914
Shots on target
74
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
52
Passes
78% (317/408)70% (215/306)
Yellow Cards
53
Red Cards
10
Expected Goals (xG)
1.150.99
xG on target (xGOT)
0.540.29
Total shots
1914
Shots on target
74
Shots off target
96
Blocked Shots
34
Shots inside the Box
127
Shots outside the Box
77
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
52
Touches in opposition box
2117
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
913
Passes
78% (317/408)70% (215/306)
Long passes
54% (34/63)42% (24/57)
Passes in final third
61% (48/79)51% (37/73)
Crosses
24% (5/21)31% (4/13)
Expected assists (xA)
0.800.88
Throw-ins
3119
Fouls
139
Tackles
53% (8/15)56% (9/16)
Duels won
6150
Clearances
2932
Interceptions
1216
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
46
xGOT faced
0.290.54
Goals prevented
0.29-0.46

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 39', Borja J. 🟨,
  • 44', Ontaneda J. 🟨,
  • 45', Spina A. L. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 67', Mina A. , Gruezo E. ,
  • 67', Montenegro B. , Carcelen Carabali M. A. ,
  • 68', Pazmino D. , Guisamano J. ,
  • 73', Reasco D. , Cifuentes J. ,
  • 73', Cela A. , Branda V. ,
  • 74', Jaramilo R. 🟨,
  • 78', Carcelen Carabali M. A. 🟨,
  • 79', Zambrano C. , Miranda B. ,
  • 80', Borja J. , Hernandez B. ,
  • 80', Chala J. , Borja F. ,
  • 80', Caicedo E. 🟨,
  • 90', Branda V. 🟨,
  • 90+1', 1 - 0, Miranda B. , Gruezo E. (A),
  • 90+3', Gruezo E. , Rolon C. ,
  • 90+7', Carcelen Carabali M. A. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


SD Aucas
51.4%
Draw
26%
El Nacional
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
53.7% 25.2% 21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4% 24.9% 20.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • SD Aucas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)
  • El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (+3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-1.8%)
  • SD Aucas - El Nacional Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.79
    (1.74)
    3.61
    (3.7)
    4.16
    (4.4)
    7.8%
    (7.4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • What is the prediction for SD Aucas - El Nacional?
  • Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Aucas will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). El Nacional will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for El Nacional: 42%87.4%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): El Nacional will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 1.
    • The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
    • El Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Aucas is seen as the favorite.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 8 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 28:20. (average 1.4:1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Aucas won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:8. (average 1.3:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between SD Aucas - El Nacional were as follows:
    24.08.2024 El Nacional - SD Aucas 0:0
    20.03.2024 SD Aucas - El Nacional 3:4
    05.08.2023 El Nacional - SD Aucas 2:2
    26.02.2023 SD Aucas - El Nacional 0:2
    Latest results of SD Aucas
    Latest results of El Nacional
    Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Ind. del Valle23147243:192449
    2Barcelona SC23125635:26941
    3LDU Quito22117438:211740
    4Orense23114825:26-137
    5Aucas22105730:27335
    6Dep. Cuenca23105827:24335
    7Libertad2297633:28534
    8U. Catolica2287738:29931
    9Emelec2277820:26-628
    10Delfin2268821:31-1026
    11EL Nacional23671026:33-725
    12Vinotinto22651126:30-423
    13Macara23581021:26-523
    14Manta2258929:38-923
    15Tecnico U22471120:33-1319
    16Mushuc Runa22451324:39-1517

          Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
          Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
          Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )