Result
4:5
31/08/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- J1 League - Round 28
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 China | K-Ball |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.99 | 4.48 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 32% | 68% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 25 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 14 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (198/265) | 86% (482/563) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.99 | 4.48 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.55 | 4.66 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 25 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 14 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 20 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 9 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 39 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (198/265) | 86% (482/563) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 41% (22/54) | 52% (27/52) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 64% (58/91) | 75% (153/203) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 21% (3/14) | 33% (12/36) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.39 | 1.83 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 56% (5/9) | 75% (9/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 31 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 43 | 16 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 4.66 | 1.55 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.34 | -2.45 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (3 - 1)
- 13', 1 - 0, Nitta R. ⚽, Onose K. (A),
- 38', 2 - 0, Hiraoka T. ⚽,
- 39', Tachi K. 🟨,
- 40', 2 - 1, Fukuoka S. ⚽, Hatsuse R. (A),
- 45', Tachi K. 🟥,
- 45+4', 3 - 1, Oda Y. ⚽, Hiraoka T. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 4)
- 46', Kurokawa K. ↓, Usami T. ↑,
- 49', 3 - 2, Mito R. ⚽,
- 53', 3 - 3, Nakatani S. ⚽, Hatsuse R. (A),
- 62', Nitta R. ↓, Oiwa K. ↑,
- 72', Ishibashi S. ↓, Okuno H. ↑,
- 72', Ze Ricardo ↓, Barada A. ↑,
- 72', Mito R. ↓, Jebali I. ↑,
- 81', Hiraoka T. ↓, Ishii H. ↑,
- 82', Oda Y. ↓, Luiz Phellype ↑,
- 82', Abe S. ↓, Suzuki T. ↑,
- 82', Mitsuta M. ↓, Yamashita R. ↑,
- 88', 3 - 4, Juan Alano ⚽, Jebali I. (A),
- 90', Hatsuse R. ↓, Miura G. ↑,
- 90+7', 3 - 5, Yamashita R. ⚽,
- 90+10', 4 - 5, Oiwa K. ⚽, Onose K. (A),
- 90+11', Juan Alano 🟨,
- 90+11', Suzuki Y. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Shonan Bellmare
25.8% | Draw
27.2% | Gamba Osaka
47% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Shonan Bellmare has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)Gamba Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shonan Bellmare than the current prediction. (+2.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (-4.3%)
Shonan Bellmare - Gamba Osaka Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.65 ↑
(3.35) |
3.46 ↑
(3.33) |
2.02 ↓
(2.18) |
5.8%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Shonan Bellmare - Gamba Osaka?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Shonan Bellmare will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Gamba Osaka will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gamba Osaka: 44.1% – 94.3%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Gamba Osaka will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League and 12).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shonan Bellmare won 1.
- Both teams are currently in poor form.
- Shonan Bellmare may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Gamba Osaka could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Shonan Bellmare: Kamifukumoto N.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Nagai T.
(Calf Injury)
Suzuki A.
(Yellow Cards)
Takahashi N.
(Shoulder Injury)
Tamura S.
(Thigh Injury)
- There are questionable in Gamba Osaka: Mitsuta M.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Shonan Bellmare won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 20:30. (average 1:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Shonan Bellmare won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:12. (average 1.1:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Shonan Bellmare won against Gamba Osaka?
Shonan Bellmare has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Gamba Osaka won against Shonan Bellmare?
Gamba Osaka has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Shonan Bellmare - Gamba Osaka were as follows:
03.05.2025
Gamba Osaka
-
Shonan Bellmare
4:0
21.08.2024
Gamba Osaka
-
Shonan Bellmare
3:2
20.07.2024
Gamba Osaka
-
Shonan Bellmare
0:1
01.06.2024
Shonan Bellmare
-
Gamba Osaka
1:2
19.08.2023
Gamba Osaka
-
Shonan Bellmare
2:1
Latest results of Shonan Bellmare
Latest results of Gamba Osaka
Japan J1 League Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 35 | 20 | 7 | 8 | 53:29 | 24 | 67 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 35 | 18 | 12 | 5 | 55:33 | 22 | 66 |
| 3 | Kyoto | 35 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 59:37 | 22 | 62 |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 45:30 | 15 | 62 |
| 5 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 35 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 39:26 | 13 | 59 |
| 6 | Machida | 35 | 16 | 9 | 10 | 49:35 | 14 | 57 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 35 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 65:50 | 15 | 56 |
| 8 | Urawa Reds | 35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 40:36 | 4 | 53 |
| 9 | Gamba Osaka | 35 | 16 | 5 | 14 | 48:52 | -4 | 53 |
| 10 | Cerezo Osaka | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 54:50 | 4 | 49 |
| 11 | FC Tokyo | 35 | 12 | 9 | 14 | 39:47 | -8 | 45 |
| 12 | Avispa Fukuoka | 35 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 33:37 | -4 | 44 |
| 13 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 35 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 39:44 | -5 | 44 |
| 14 | Verdy | 35 | 11 | 9 | 15 | 22:36 | -14 | 42 |
| 15 | Okayama | 35 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 31:40 | -9 | 41 |
| 16 | Nagoya Grampus | 35 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 42:52 | -10 | 40 |
| 17 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 39:44 | -5 | 37 |
| 18 | Yokohama FC | 35 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 23:41 | -18 | 32 |
| 19 | Shonan Bellmare | 35 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 29:59 | -30 | 26 |
| 20 | Albirex Niigata ✔ | 35 | 4 | 11 | 20 | 32:58 | -26 | 23 |
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
Relegation ~ J2 League
Clinched Spots for Teams
Albirex Niigata is Relegated to J2 League
