Result
3:1
20/08/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- J1 League - Round 30
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 China | K-Ball |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.05 | 1.24 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 49% | 51% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (315/403) | 78% (336/433) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.05 | 1.24 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.32 | 1.55 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 20 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (315/403) | 78% (336/433) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 36% (23/64) | 37% (21/57) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (83/136) | 67% (82/122) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 26% (5/19) | 33% (4/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.95 | 0.81 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 23 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 55% (6/11) | 60% (9/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 54 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 24 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 15 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.55 | 3.32 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.55 | 0.32 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 17', 1 - 0, Shoji G. ⚽, Na Sang-Ho (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Fujio S. 🟨,
- 56', Okunuki K. ↓, Welton ↑,
- 59', Fujio S. ↓, Oh Se-Hun ↑,
- 59', Na Sang-Ho ↓, Sento K. ↑,
- 61', 1 - 1, Hummet D. ⚽, Welton (A),
- 75', Juan Alano ↓, Meshino R. ↑,
- 78', 2 - 1, Hayashi K. ⚽,
- 79', Mae H. ↓, Lavi N. ↑,
- 81', Fukuoka S. ↓, Kurokawa K. ↑,
- 82', Suzuki T. ↓, Mito R. ↑,
- 90', 3 - 1, Nishimura T. (Pen),
- 90+5', Nakayama Y. ↓, Shimoda H. ↑,
- 90+5', Nishimura T. ↓, Numata T. ↑,
Chances of winning
Machida Zelvia
52.7% | Draw
26.8% | Gamba Osaka
20.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Machida Zelvia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)Gamba Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (+5.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Machida Zelvia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (-1.9%)
Machida Zelvia - Gamba Osaka Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.79 ↑
(1.71) |
3.51 ↓
(3.74) |
4.6 ↓
(4.81) |
6.2%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Machida Zelvia - Gamba Osaka?
Users Predictions:
27 users predict this event. Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 17 - 63%). Gamba Osaka will win (votes: 7 - 25.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Machida Zelvia: 44.8% – 81.2%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Machida Zelvia (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Gamba Osaka (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 and 12).
- Machida Zelvia is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Gamba Osaka is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Machida Zelvia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.
- In this match, Machida Zelvia is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in Machida Zelvia: Soma Y.
(Yellow Cards)
- There will not play in Gamba Osaka: Abe S.
(Red Card)
Higashiguchi M.
(Health problems)
Jebali I.
(Yellow Cards)
Yamashita R.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Machida Zelvia: Narasaka T.
(Knee Injury)
Nishimura T.
(Inactive)
- We predict that Machida Zelvia will win today's game, with odds of 1.73.
- In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Machida Zelvia won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).
- Including home match between the teams, Machida Zelvia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.
How many head-to-head matches has Machida Zelvia won against Gamba Osaka?
Machida Zelvia has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Gamba Osaka won against Machida Zelvia?
Gamba Osaka has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Machida Zelvia - Gamba Osaka were as follows:
02.04.2025
Gamba Osaka
-
Machida Zelvia
0:1
30.06.2024
Gamba Osaka
-
Machida Zelvia
1:3
24.02.2024
Machida Zelvia
-
Gamba Osaka
1:1
Latest results of Machida Zelvia
Latest results of Gamba Osaka
Japan J1 League Table
2026East | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 13 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 21:9 | 32 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 13 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 27:13 | 29 |
| 3 | Machida | 12 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 20:18 | 24 |
| 4 | Verdy | 12 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 19:16 | 21 |
| 5 | Kawasaki Frontale | 13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 20:23 | 20 |
| 6 | Mito | 13 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 19:27 | 16 |
| 7 | Urawa Reds | 13 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 18:19 | 15 |
| 8 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 20:24 | 15 |
| 9 | Kashiwa Reysol | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 10 | Chiba | 13 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 13:24 | 9 |
West | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 12 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 23:13 | 26 |
| 2 | Nagoya Grampus | 13 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23:19 | 22 |
| 3 | Gamba Osaka | 14 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 23:21 | 22 |
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 21:18 | 20 |
| 5 | Kyoto | 12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 19:16 | 19 |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 13 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15:13 | 19 |
| 7 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 13 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16:18 | 17 |
| 8 | Okayama | 13 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 17:24 | 17 |
| 9 | Avispa Fukuoka | 14 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 17:25 | 17 |
| 10 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 13:20 | 16 |
Promotion ~ J1 League (Play Offs: )
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
