Result
3:2 penalties
19/04/2026 at 02:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- J1 League - Round 11
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 China | K-Ball |
 Japan | AbemaTV, DAZN Japan |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.46 | 1.31 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 73% | 27% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (535/622) | 61% (136/224) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.46 | 1.31 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.54 | 0.26 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 33 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (535/622) | 61% (136/224) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 48% (28/58) | 42% (24/57) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 83% (218/262) | 46% (39/85) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (10/35) | 18% (3/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.66 | 1.17 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 23 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 38% (5/13) | 53% (8/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 54 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 22 | 39 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 2 | 14 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.26 | 1.54 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.74 | -0.46 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 5', 0 - 1, Higashiguchi M. (Own goal),
- 26', 1 - 1, Kishimoto T. ⚽, Miura G. (A),
- 42', Browne N. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 56', Motoyama H. ↓, Matsumoto M. ↑,
- 57', Browne N. ↓, Shirai K. ↑,
- 60', Suzuki T. ↓, Mito R. ↑,
- 61', Hummet D. ↓, Usami T. ↑,
- 61', Yamashita R. ↓, Okunuki K. ↑,
- 65', 2 - 1, Jebali I. ⚽, Usami T. (A),
- 67', Ichimi K. ↓, Werik Popo ↑,
- 67', Kimura T. ↓, Kawano K. ↑,
- 68', Welton ↓, Meshino R. ↑,
- 72', 2 - 2, Esaka A. ⚽, Werik Popo (A),
- 74', Miura G. 🟨,
- 85', Ogura K. ↓, Nishikawa J. ↑,
- 88', Hatsuse R. ↓, Nakano S. ↑,
- Penalties (5 - 3)
- 1, Usami T. (Penalty Awarded),
- 1, Esaka A. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Abe S. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Tagami D. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Meshino R. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Kawano K. (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Okunuki K. (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Werik Popo (Penalty Awarded),
- 5, Miura G. (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Gamba Osaka
54.9% | Draw
25.8% | Fagiano Okayama
19.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Gamba Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)Fagiano Okayama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (-10.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gamba Osaka that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (+6.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fagiano Okayama could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Gamba Osaka - Fagiano Okayama Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.73 ↓
(1.81) |
3.6 ↑
(3.58) |
4.83 ↑
(4.14) |
6.4%
(7.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Gamba Osaka - Fagiano Okayama?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH 0 - Gamba Osaka (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DNB - Gamba Osaka (1.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Gamba Osaka will win
(8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Gamba Osaka (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)).
- Gamba Osaka has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Okayama's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Gamba Osaka may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Gamba Osaka could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Gamba Osaka: Fukuoka S.
(Hamstring Injury)
Ichimori J.
(Finger Injury)
Sasaki S.
(Hamstring Injury)
Uenaka A.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Okayama: Tabei R.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Okayama: Fujita I.
(Injury)
Kudo K.
(Injury)
- In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Gamba Osaka won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 1.3:2).
- Including home match between the teams, Gamba Osaka won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.
How many head-to-head matches has Gamba Osaka won against Fagiano Okayama?
Gamba Osaka has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Fagiano Okayama won against Gamba Osaka?
Fagiano Okayama has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Gamba Osaka - Fagiano Okayama were as follows:
22.02.2026
Fagiano Okayama
-
Gamba Osaka
1:2
10.08.2025
Gamba Osaka
-
Fagiano Okayama
0:3
26.02.2025
Fagiano Okayama
-
Gamba Osaka
2:0
Latest results of Gamba Osaka
Latest results of Fagiano Okayama
Japan J1 League Table
2026East | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 13 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 21:9 | 32 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 13 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 27:13 | 29 |
| 3 | Machida | 12 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 20:18 | 24 |
| 4 | Verdy | 12 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 19:16 | 21 |
| 5 | Kawasaki Frontale | 13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 20:23 | 20 |
| 6 | Mito | 13 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 19:27 | 16 |
| 7 | Urawa Reds | 13 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 18:19 | 15 |
| 8 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 20:24 | 15 |
| 9 | Kashiwa Reysol | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 10 | Chiba | 13 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 13:24 | 9 |
West | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 12 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 23:13 | 26 |
| 2 | Nagoya Grampus | 13 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23:19 | 22 |
| 3 | Gamba Osaka | 14 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 23:21 | 22 |
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 21:18 | 20 |
| 5 | Kyoto | 12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 19:16 | 19 |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 13 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15:13 | 19 |
| 7 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 13 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16:18 | 17 |
| 8 | Okayama | 13 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 17:24 | 17 |
| 9 | Avispa Fukuoka | 14 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 17:25 | 17 |
| 10 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 13:20 | 16 |
Promotion ~ J1 League (Play Offs: )
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
