Result
2:3
28/01/2026 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Champions League - League phase - Round 8
- Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | SuperSport Maximo 360, SuperSport Motorsport |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Armenia | Fast Sports |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 6 |
 Australia | Stan Sport |
 Austria | Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1 |
 Brazil | HBO Max |
 Canada | DAZN Canada |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 China | iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8 |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Europe | Go3 Extra Sports Baltic |
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
 France | Canal+ Live 14 |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 4, WOW |
 Hong-kong | beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Hungary | RTL+ |
 Iceland | Viaplay |
 India | JioTV app, Sony LIV |
 Indonesia | beIN Connect, Vidio |
 Laos | beIN Connect |
 Malaysia | beIN Connect |
 Mexico | FOX One |
 New-zealand | DAZN New Zealand |
 Nigeria | SuperSport Motorsport |
 Norway | TV2 Play |
 Pakistan | Tapmad |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Philippines | beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Singapore | beIN Connect |
 South-africa | SuperSport Motorsport |
 South-korea | SPOTV Now |
 Spain | M+ Liga de Campeones 4 |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 Switzerland | Blue Sport 9, Blue Sport 9 |
 Thailand | beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Turkey | Tabii |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 16 |
 United-kingdom | Discovery+ App, Discovery+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Paramount+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 Vietnam | ON Plus, TV 360, VTV Prime |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.59 | 1.49 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 35% | 65% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (227/307) | 87% (516/590) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.59 | 1.49 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.20 | 2.20 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 13 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 22 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (227/307) | 87% (516/590) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 32% (16/50) | 46% (13/28) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 60% (71/118) | 72% (63/87) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 5% (1/22) | 24% (4/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.33 | 0.54 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 17 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 22 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 69% (11/16) | 65% (15/23) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 40 | 68 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 13 | 30 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.80 | -0.80 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 3', 1 - 0, Sancet O. ⚽,
- 12', 1 - 1, Diomande O. ⚽, Araujo M. (A),
- 26', Inacio G. ↓, Matheus Reis ↑,
- 28', 2 - 1, Guruzeta G. ⚽,
- 29', Matheus Reis 🟨,
- 35', Gomez U. 🟨,
- 39', Araujo M. 🟨,
- 44', Guruzeta G. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 49', Simoes J. 🟨,
- 50', Sancet O. ↓, Berenguer A. ↑,
- 54', Braganca D. ↓, Goncalves P. ↑,
- 54', Diomande O. ↓, Quaresma E. ↑,
- 54', Simoes J. ↓, Morita H. ↑,
- 55', Goncalves P. 🟨,
- 62', 2 - 2, Trincao ⚽,
- 66', Gomez U. ↓, Sanchez S. ↑,
- 66', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Vesga M. ↑,
- 75', Paredes A. 🟨,
- 81', Navarro R. ↓, Serrano N. ↑,
- 81', Guruzeta G. ↓, Hierro A. ↑,
- 82', Vesga M. 🟨,
- 86', Quaresma E. 🟨,
- 87', Trincao ↓, Alisson Santos ↑,
- 90+4', 2 - 3, Alisson Santos ⚽,
Chances of winning
Athletic Bilbao
33.8% | Draw
28.5% | Sporting Lisbon
37.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.9%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Athletic Bilbao's form might have worsened.Sporting Lisbon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sporting Lisbon's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+15.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Athletic Bilbao, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (-12.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sporting Lisbon, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Athletic Bilbao - Sporting Lisbon Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.83 ↑
(1.99) |
3.38 ↓
(3.74) |
2.57 ↓
(3.79) |
3.9%
(3.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Athletic Bilbao - Sporting Lisbon?
Users Predictions:
76 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 21 - 27.6%). Sporting will win (votes: 48 - 63.2%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 9.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sporting: 52.4% – 74%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 29 high ROI users predict this event. Athletic (votes: 10 - 34.5%). Sporting (votes: 15 - 51.7%). Tie (votes: 4 - 13.8%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
- AH -0.25 - Sporting (1.93) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH -0.5 - Sporting (1.48) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 13 - 68.4%) .
- DC - Sporting (1.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- 1X2, 1st Half - draw (votes: 0 - 0%) .
- AH 0 - Sporting (1.80) (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- DNB - Sporting (1.75) (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH -1 - Athletic (4.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 44 high ROI users predict this event. Athletic (votes: 13 - 29.5%). Sporting (votes: 27 - 61.4%). Tie (votes: 4 - 9.1%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Athletic has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Sporting is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Sporting may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Athletic has had a series of away games.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y.
(Doping)
Egiluz U.
(Knee Injury)
Izeta
(Inactive)
Jauregizar M.
(Yellow Cards)
Prados Diaz B.
(Knee Injury)
Sannadi M.
(Knee Injury)
Williams I.
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Sporting: Blopa S.
(Inactive)
Ioannidis F.
(Knee Injury)
Luis Guilherme
(Inactive)
Quaresma E.
(Injury)
Quenda G.
(Foot Injury)
Santos N.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Athletic: Laporte A.
(Muscle Injury)
Williams N.
(Groin Injury)
- In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 1.3:2).
- Including home match between the teams, Athletic won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.
How many head-to-head matches has Athletic Bilbao won against Sporting Lisbon?
Athletic Bilbao has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Sporting Lisbon won against Athletic Bilbao?
Sporting Lisbon has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Athletic Bilbao - Sporting Lisbon were as follows:
27.07.2024
Sporting Lisbon
-
Athletic Bilbao
3:0
Latest results of Athletic Bilbao
Latest results of Sporting Lisbon
Draw
Play Offs1/16-finals| 1 | Monaco (21) | PSG (11) | 2 : 2, 2 : 3 |
| 2 | Chelsea (6) | Bye | |
| 3 | Galatasaray (20) | Juventus (13) | 2 : 3, 5 : 2 |
| 4 | Liverpool (3) | Bye | |
| 5 | Benfica (24) | Real Madrid (9) | 1 : 2, 0 : 1 |
| 6 | Manchester City (8) | Bye | |
| 7 | Dortmund (17) | Atalanta (15) | 1 : 4, 2 : 0 |
| 8 | Bayern Munich (2) | Bye | |
| 9 | Qarabag (22) | Newcastle (12) | 2 : 3, 1 : 6 |
| 10 | Barcelona (5) | Bye | |
| 11 | Club Brugge KV (19) | Atl. Madrid (14) | 1 : 4, 3 : 3 |
| 12 | Tottenham (4) | Bye | |
| 13 | Bodo/Glimt (23) | Inter (10) | 2 : 1, 3 : 1 |
| 14 | Sporting CP (7) | Bye | |
| 15 | Olympiacos Piraeus (18) | Bayer Leverkusen (16) | 0 : 0, 0 : 2 |
| 16 | Arsenal (1) | Bye | |
1/8-finals| 1 | PSG (11) | Chelsea (6) | |
| 2 | Galatasaray (20) | Liverpool (3) | |
| 3 | Real Madrid (9) | Manchester City (8) | |
| 4 | Atalanta (15) | Bayern Munich (2) | |
| 5 | Newcastle (12) | Barcelona (5) | |
| 6 | Atl. Madrid (14) | Tottenham (4) | |
| 7 | Bodo/Glimt (23) | Sporting CP (7) | |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen (16) | Arsenal (1) | |
Quarter-finalsSemi-finalsFinal
