Result
4:3
11/02/2026 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Premiership - Round 26
- Referee: Irvine G. (Sco)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 United-kingdom | Kilmarnock TV, St Mirren TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.74 | 1.78 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 57% | 43% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (348/430) | 71% (232/329) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.74 | 1.78 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.59 | 2.69 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 11 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 37 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 19 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (348/430) | 71% (232/329) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (22/55) | 44% (36/82) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 65% (77/118) | 60% (72/120) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (5/29) | 21% (3/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.54 | 0.81 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 15 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 19 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 83% (10/12) | 50% (6/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 52 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 34 | 25 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.69 | 3.59 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.31 | -0.41 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 8', 0 - 1, Phillips K. ⚽, Mandron M. (A),
- 11', Watson D. 🟨,
- 40', King R. 🟨,
- 43', 1 - 1, Kiltie G. ⚽, Curtis F. (A),
- 45+1', 2 - 1, John-Jules T. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 2)
- 46', Richardson J. ↓, N'Lundulu D. ↑,
- 47', 2 - 2, Phillips K. ⚽,
- 65', Anderson B. ↓, Hugill J. ↑,
- 65', Lyons B. ↓, Tshibola A. ↑,
- 74', Gogic A. 🟨,
- 76', 3 - 2, John-Jules T. ⚽,
- 79', Curtis F. ↓, Brandon J. ↑,
- 80', Watson D. ↓, Thompson J. ↑,
- 82', 4 - 2, John-Jules T. ⚽, Deas R. (A),
- 84', Idowu R. ↓, McMenamin C. ↑,
- 84', Phillips K. ↓, Calvin J. ↑,
- 84', John D. ↓, Tanser S. ↑,
- 84', Polworth L. ↓, McKenzie R. ↑,
- 86', Freckleton M. 🟨,
- 90+3', 4 - 3, Tanser S. ⚽, Gogic A. (A),
Chances of winning
Kilmarnock
32.4% | Draw
29% | St. Mirren
38.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Kilmarnock has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)St. Mirren has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kilmarnock than the current prediction. (+0.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Mirren than the current prediction. (-1.5%)
Kilmarnock - St. Mirren Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.91 ↑
(2.89) |
3.21 ↑
(3.08) |
2.45 ↑
(2.38) |
6.3%
(9.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Kilmarnock - St. Mirren?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Kilmarnock will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). St. Mirren will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DNB - Kilmarnock (2.00) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Kilmarnock (votes: 1 - 50%). St. Mirren (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 11 in the zone Premiership (Relegation Group: ) and 9 in the zone Premiership (Relegation Group: ))
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kilmarnock won 2.
- Kilmarnock is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- St. Mirren is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- St. Mirren may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Kilmarnock: Daniels D.
(Knee Injury)
Kennedy M.
(Hip Injury)
Magennis K.
(Knee Injury)
Thompson D.
(Red Card)
- There will not play in St. Mirren: Ayunga J.
(Tendon Injury)
Baccus K.
(Hamstring Injury)
O'Hara M.
(Ankle Injury)
- There are questionable in Kilmarnock: Brandon J.
(Ankle Injury)
- There are questionable in St. Mirren: Young J.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kilmarnock won 7 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 27:24. (average 1.4:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Kilmarnock won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:14. (average 1.9:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Kilmarnock won against St. Mirren?
Kilmarnock has won 6 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has St. Mirren won against Kilmarnock?
St. Mirren has won 2 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Kilmarnock - St. Mirren were as follows:
27.12.2025
St. Mirren
-
Kilmarnock
0:0
04.10.2025
Kilmarnock
-
St. Mirren
2:0
19.09.2025
Kilmarnock
-
St. Mirren
2:3
29.03.2025
St. Mirren
-
Kilmarnock
5:1
02.01.2025
Kilmarnock
-
St. Mirren
2:0
Latest results of Kilmarnock
Latest results of St. Mirren
Scottish Premier League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Hearts ✔ | 29 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 52:24 | 28 | 63 |
| 2 | Rangers ✔ | 29 | 15 | 12 | 2 | 51:25 | 26 | 57 |
| 3 | Celtic ✔ | 28 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 51:30 | 21 | 55 |
| 4 | Motherwell ✔ | 28 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 47:18 | 29 | 53 |
| 5 | Hibernian ✔ | 29 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 48:35 | 13 | 46 |
| 6 | Falkirk | 29 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 37:37 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Dundee Utd | 28 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 34:45 | -11 | 30 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 28:39 | -11 | 29 |
| 9 | Dundee FC | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 27:45 | -18 | 28 |
| 10 | St. Mirren ✔ | 28 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 22:43 | -21 | 24 |
| 11 | Kilmarnock ✔ | 29 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 32:60 | -28 | 21 |
| 12 | Livingston ✔ | 29 | 1 | 11 | 17 | 31:59 | -28 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Premiership (Championship Group: )
Premiership (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Hearts is Qualified for Premiership (Championship Group )
Rangers is Qualified for Premiership (Championship Group )
Celtic is Qualified for Premiership (Championship Group )
Motherwell is Qualified for Premiership (Championship Group )
Hibernian is Qualified for Premiership (Championship Group )
St. Mirren is Premiership (Relegation Group )
Kilmarnock is Premiership (Relegation Group )
Livingston is Premiership (Relegation Group )
