Result
3:1
14/03/2026 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Championship - Round 38
- Referee: Doughty L. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Viaplay |
 Iceland | Viaplay |
 Norway | Viaplay |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 Usa | Paramount+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.53 | 1.83 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 44% | 56% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 12 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (226/315) | 78% (306/390) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.53 | 1.83 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.31 | 0.34 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 12 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 35 | 25 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (226/315) | 78% (306/390) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 38% (18/48) | 43% (26/60) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (46/76) | 75% (131/174) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 35% (7/20) | 11% (3/27) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.36 | 1.05 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 20 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (8/12) | 46% (6/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 52 | 43 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 29 | 34 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.34 | 3.31 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.66 | 0.31 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 17', Rigo T. 🟨,
- 28', 1 - 0, Manhoef M. ⚽, Smit M. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 50', Thomas S. 🟨,
- 51', Mendy N. 🟨,
- 60', Talovierov M. 🟨,
- 62', Semedo V. ↓, Irankunda N. ↑,
- 70', Bocat E. ↓, Gibson B. ↑,
- 71', Smit M. ↓, Gallagher S. ↑,
- 71', Ince T. ↓, Lawson J. ↑,
- 71', Mendy N. ↓, Ekwah P. ↑,
- 72', Simkin T. 🟨,
- 77', 2 - 0, Manhoef M. ⚽,
- 79', Manhoef M. ↓, Rak-Sakyi J. ↑,
- 79', Bae J. ↓, Pearson B. ↑,
- 81', 2 - 1, Irankunda N. ⚽, Chakvetadze G. (A),
- 83', N'Zonzi S. ↓, Seko T. ↑,
- 85', 3 - 1, Gallagher S. ⚽, Thomas S. (A),
- 86', Mfuni S. ↓, Bove E. ↑,
- 86', Louza I. ↓, Kjerrumgaard L. ↑,
- 90+3', Irankunda N. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Stoke City
34.6% | Draw
28.8% | Watford
36.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)Watford has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (+5.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Stoke City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Watford than the current prediction. (-4.7%)
Stoke City - Watford Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.75 ↑
(2.43) |
3.28 ↓
(3.36) |
2.62 ↓
(2.92) |
5%
(5.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Stoke City - Watford?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Stoke will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Watford will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.8% – 76.2%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Stoke (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Watford (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH 0 - Stoke (1.98) (votes: 2 - 50%) .
- AH -0.25 - Stoke (2.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Stoke (votes: 4 - 50%). Watford (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 16 and 9).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stoke won 1.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Watford may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Stoke: Ampah A.
(Injury)
Baker L.
(Inactive)
Bazunu G.
(Thigh Injury)
Bozenik R.
(Shoulder Injury)
Cresswell A.
(Calf Injury)
Gallagher S.
(Hamstring Injury)
Johansson V.
(Shoulder Injury)
Lawal B.
(Inactive)
Mubama D.
(Ankle Injury)
Wilmot B.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Watford: Baah K.
(Injury)
Kyprianou H.
(Ankle Injury)
Maamma O.
(Injury)
Vata R.
(Hamstring Injury)
- There are questionable in Stoke: Bocat E.
(Injury)
Tchamadeu J.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Watford: Pollock M.
(Inactive)
- In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Stoke won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 14:20. (average 0.9:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Stoke won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 0.6:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Stoke City won against Watford?
Stoke City has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Watford won against Stoke City?
Watford has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Stoke City - Watford were as follows:
20.12.2025
Watford
-
Stoke City
1:0
01.03.2025
Stoke City
-
Watford
0:0
17.08.2024
Watford
-
Stoke City
3:0
29.12.2023
Watford
-
Stoke City
1:1
19.08.2023
Stoke City
-
Watford
1:0
Latest results of Stoke City
Latest results of Watford
English League Championship Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Coventry | 42 | 25 | 10 | 7 | 84:42 | 42 | 85 |
| 2 | Ipswich | 40 | 21 | 12 | 7 | 71:40 | 31 | 75 |
| 3 | Millwall | 42 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 56:47 | 9 | 73 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 42 | 20 | 12 | 10 | 62:42 | 20 | 72 |
| 5 | Southampton | 41 | 19 | 12 | 10 | 70:50 | 20 | 69 |
| 6 | Hull | 42 | 20 | 8 | 14 | 64:60 | 4 | 68 |
| 7 | Wrexham | 42 | 17 | 13 | 12 | 63:60 | 3 | 64 |
| 8 | Derby | 42 | 18 | 9 | 15 | 61:53 | 8 | 63 |
| 9 | Norwich | 42 | 17 | 7 | 18 | 55:50 | 5 | 58 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 42 | 16 | 10 | 16 | 52:51 | 1 | 58 |
| 11 | QPR | 42 | 16 | 10 | 16 | 58:63 | -5 | 58 |
| 12 | Watford | 42 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 52:51 | 1 | 57 |
| 13 | Preston | 42 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 50:53 | -3 | 57 |
| 14 | Swansea | 42 | 16 | 9 | 17 | 50:54 | -4 | 57 |
| 15 | Birmingham | 42 | 15 | 11 | 16 | 51:52 | -1 | 56 |
| 16 | Stoke | 42 | 15 | 10 | 17 | 49:46 | 3 | 55 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 42 | 16 | 6 | 20 | 59:59 | 0 | 54 |
| 18 | Charlton | 42 | 12 | 13 | 17 | 39:51 | -12 | 49 |
| 19 | Blackburn | 42 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 38:50 | -12 | 48 |
| 20 | West Brom | 42 | 11 | 13 | 18 | 42:56 | -14 | 46 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 41 | 11 | 12 | 18 | 41:57 | -16 | 45 |
| 22 | Oxford Utd | 42 | 10 | 14 | 18 | 41:54 | -13 | 44 |
| 23 | Leicester | 42 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 54:64 | -10 | 41 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wed ✔ | 42 | 1 | 11 | 30 | 25:82 | -57 | -4 |
Promotion ~ Premier League
Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ League One
Clinched Spots for Teams
Sheffield Wed is Relegated to League One
