Result
4:1
01/06/2025 at 08:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Virsliga - Round 16
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Latvia | Sportacentrs TV, TV4 |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.90 | 1.22 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (325/409) | 86% (393/459) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.90 | 1.22 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.65 | 1.28 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 28 | 19 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 21 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (325/409) | 86% (393/459) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (25/63) | 71% (41/58) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (72/115) | 75% (93/124) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 21% (3/14) | 32% (6/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.02 | 1.48 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 12 | 11 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 21 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 20% (2/10) | 38% (3/8) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 49 | 57 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 22 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.28 | 1.65 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.28 | -2.35 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (3 - 0)
- 13', 1 - 0, Minins J. ⚽, Sula D. (A),
- 20', Diakite T. 🟨,
- 34', 2 - 0, Sula D. ⚽, Minins J. (A),
- 34', Kone M. ↓, Kudelkins A. ↑,
- 35', Skrebels R. 🟨,
- 37', 3 - 0, Sula D. ⚽, Minins J. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Diallo B. ↓, Murakami S. ↑,
- 47', Tihonovics M. 🟨,
- 49', 3 - 1, Kudelkins A. ⚽,
- 51', 4 - 1, Oss M. ⚽,
- 66', Skrebels R. ↓, Kauselis K. ↑,
- 66', Taty C. ↓, Barkovskis N. ↑,
- 69', Sula D. 🟨,
- 70', Zengis R. ↓, Deklavs A. ↑,
- 70', Tihonovics M. ↓, Deruzinskis R. ↑,
- 70', Minins J. ↓, Sitjakovs R. ↑,
- 73', Deruzinskis R. 🟨,
- 74', Diedhiou B. ↓, Kopilovs M. ↑,
- 81', Sula D. ↓, Grikovs A. ↑,
- 90', Cudars K. ↓, Skadmanis K. ↑,
Chances of winning
Super Nova
38% | Draw
29.1% | BFC Daugavpils
32.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Super Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)BFC Daugavpils has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Super Nova than the current prediction. (+5.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Super Nova, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for BFC Daugavpils than the current prediction. (-3.8%)
Super Nova - BFC Daugavpils Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.41 ↑
(2.19) |
3.16 ↓
(3.21) |
2.8 ↓
(3.02) |
8.9%
(9.9%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Super Nova - BFC Daugavpils?
Users Predictions:
Super Nova will win
(4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 44.94% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 8 and 5).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Super Nova won 0.
- In recent matches, Super Nova has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Daugavpils is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Super Nova will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Super Nova won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 4:15. (average 0.4:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Super Nova won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.4:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Super Nova won against BFC Daugavpils?
Super Nova has won 0 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has BFC Daugavpils won against Super Nova?
BFC Daugavpils has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Super Nova - BFC Daugavpils were as follows:
15.04.2025
BFC Daugavpils
-
Super Nova
1:1
23.09.2023
Super Nova
-
BFC Daugavpils
0:1
05.07.2023
BFC Daugavpils
-
Super Nova
2:0
14.05.2023
Super Nova
-
BFC Daugavpils
0:4
01.04.2023
BFC Daugavpils
-
Super Nova
3:0
Latest results of Super Nova
Latest results of BFC Daugavpils
Latvian Virsliga Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Riga FC | 23 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 55:15 | 40 | 58 |
| 2 | RFS | 23 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 57:20 | 37 | 55 |
| 3 | Auda | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 34:26 | 8 | 37 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 38:36 | 2 | 35 |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 34:42 | -8 | 30 |
| 6 | Jelgava | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 20:25 | -5 | 27 |
| 7 | Super Nova | 23 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 26:32 | -6 | 21 |
| 8 | Tukums 2000 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 25:41 | -16 | 21 |
| 9 | Grobina | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 21:44 | -23 | 19 |
| 10 | Metta | 23 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 18:47 | -29 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Nakotnes liga
