Newport County vs Swindon Town – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football English League Two Newport County - Swindon Town
Result
0:1
04/10/2025 at 07:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • League Two - Round 11
  • Referee: Bourne D. (Eng)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomSky Sports+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.431.06
Ball Possession
43%57%
Total shots
911
Shots on target
13
Big Chances
01
Corner Kicks
56
Passes
67% (196/291)77% (295/384)
Yellow Cards
45
Expected Goals (xG)
0.431.06
xG on target (xGOT)
0.010.59
Total shots
911
Shots on target
13
Shots off target
57
Blocked Shots
31
Shots inside the Box
39
Shots outside the Box
62
Hit the Woodwork
01
Big Chances
01
Corner Kicks
56
Touches in opposition box
1833
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
1514
Passes
67% (196/291)77% (295/384)
Long passes
30% (21/70)42% (29/69)
Passes in final third
49% (49/100)62% (64/104)
Crosses
7% (1/15)25% (5/20)
Expected assists (xA)
0.930.91
Throw-ins
2229
Fouls
1415
Tackles
79% (19/24)48% (12/25)
Duels won
6962
Clearances
2627
Interceptions
58
Errors leading to shot
11
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
21
xGOT faced
0.590.01
Goals prevented
-0.410.01

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 9', Jenkins L. 🟨,
  • 10', 0 - 1, Palmer O. , Munroe F. (A),
  • 17', Whitmore K. 🟨,
  • 32', Evans C. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 53', Nichols T. 🟨,
  • 57', Evans C. , Antwi C. ,
  • 57', Baker-Richardson C. , Reindorf M. ,
  • 59', Munroe F. 🟨,
  • 65', Oldaker D. , Butterworth D. ,
  • 70', Clarke J. , Kamwa B. ,
  • 70', Opoku N. , Spellman M. ,
  • 73', Glatzel P. 🟨,
  • 82', Glatzel P. , Bodin B. ,
  • 88', Nichols T. , Murphy A. ,
  • 88', Tafazolli R. , Wilson-Brown T. ,
  • 90+2', Murphy A. 🟨,
  • 90+6', Spellman M. 🟨,
  • 90+7', Butterworth D. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Newport County
18.6%
Draw
23.3%
Swindon Town
58.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
22.2% 25.3% 52.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.7% 24.7% 53.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Newport County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)
  • Swindon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Swindon Town's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (+3.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (-4.4%)
  • Newport County - Swindon Town Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    5.29
    (4.2)
    4.2
    (3.69)
    1.65
    (1.78)
    3.4%
    (7.1%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    What is the prediction for Newport County - Swindon Town?
  • Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Newport will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Swindon will win (votes: 3 - 60%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 22 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newport won 2.
    • Newport is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).
    • Swindon is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • Swindon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Swindon is seen as the favorite.
    • In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Newport won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 10 matches, and goals 17:22. (average 0.9:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Newport won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.3:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Newport County - Swindon Town were as follows:
    24.01.2025 Newport County - Swindon Town 1:2
    14.09.2024 Swindon Town - Newport County 4:0
    03.02.2024 Newport County - Swindon Town 2:1
    14.10.2023 Swindon Town - Newport County 2:0
    04.02.2023 Newport County - Swindon Town 2:1
    Latest results of Newport County
    Latest results of Swindon Town
    27.09.2025 Swindon Town - Bromley 2:0
    06.09.2025 Barrow - Swindon Town 1:3
    02.09.2025 Swindon Town - Reading 3:2
    English League Two Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Walsall1382319:12726
    2Swindon1381424:19525
    3MK Dons1373326:131324
    4Grimsby1373325:151024
    5Gillingham1364318:12622
    6Chesterfield1364323:20322
    7Salford1371518:17122
    8Notts Co1363423:15821
    9Cambridge Utd1363416:13321
    10Barnet1362516:13320
    11Crewe1361617:16119
    12Fleetwood1354419:19019
    13Bromley1346319:17218
    14Colchester1345421:18317
    15Barrow1352611:13-217
    16Bristol Rovers1352614:21-717
    17Oldham1336410:10015
    18Tranmere1235420:18214
    19Harrogate1342715:20-514
    20Accrington1233611:14-312
    21Shrewsbury1333710:20-1012
    22Cheltenham133289:25-1611
    23Crawley1323810:22-129
    24Newport1322911:23-128

          Promotion ~ League One
          Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
          Relegation ~ National League