Result
0:1
04/10/2025 at 07:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- League Two - Round 11
- Referee: Bourne D. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.43 | 1.06 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 43% | 57% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 67% (196/291) | 77% (295/384) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.43 | 1.06 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.01 | 0.59 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 33 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 67% (196/291) | 77% (295/384) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 30% (21/70) | 42% (29/69) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 49% (49/100) | 62% (64/104) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 7% (1/15) | 25% (5/20) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.93 | 0.91 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 22 | 29 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 79% (19/24) | 48% (12/25) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 69 | 62 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 26 | 27 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.59 | 0.01 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.41 | 0.01 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 9', Jenkins L. 🟨,
- 10', 0 - 1, Palmer O. ⚽, Munroe F. (A),
- 17', Whitmore K. 🟨,
- 32', Evans C. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 53', Nichols T. 🟨,
- 57', Evans C. ↓, Antwi C. ↑,
- 57', Baker-Richardson C. ↓, Reindorf M. ↑,
- 59', Munroe F. 🟨,
- 65', Oldaker D. ↓, Butterworth D. ↑,
- 70', Clarke J. ↓, Kamwa B. ↑,
- 70', Opoku N. ↓, Spellman M. ↑,
- 73', Glatzel P. 🟨,
- 82', Glatzel P. ↓, Bodin B. ↑,
- 88', Nichols T. ↓, Murphy A. ↑,
- 88', Tafazolli R. ↓, Wilson-Brown T. ↑,
- 90+2', Murphy A. 🟨,
- 90+6', Spellman M. 🟨,
- 90+7', Butterworth D. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Newport County
18.6% | Draw
23.3% | Swindon Town
58.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Newport County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)Swindon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Swindon Town's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (+3.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (-4.4%)
Newport County - Swindon Town Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
5.29 ↑
(4.2) |
4.2 ↑
(3.69) |
1.65 ↓
(1.78) |
3.4%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Newport County - Swindon Town?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Newport will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Swindon will win (votes: 3 - 60%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 22 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newport won 2.
- Newport is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Swindon is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Swindon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Swindon is seen as the favorite.
- In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Newport won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 10 matches, and goals 17:22. (average 0.9:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Newport won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.3:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Newport County won against Swindon Town?
Newport County has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Swindon Town won against Newport County?
Swindon Town has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Newport County - Swindon Town were as follows:
24.01.2025
Newport County
-
Swindon Town
1:2
14.09.2024
Swindon Town
-
Newport County
4:0
03.02.2024
Newport County
-
Swindon Town
2:1
14.10.2023
Swindon Town
-
Newport County
2:0
04.02.2023
Newport County
-
Swindon Town
2:1
Latest results of Newport County
Latest results of Swindon Town
English League Two Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Walsall | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 19:12 | 7 | 26 |
| 2 | Swindon | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 24:19 | 5 | 25 |
| 3 | MK Dons | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 26:13 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Grimsby | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 25:15 | 10 | 24 |
| 5 | Gillingham | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 18:12 | 6 | 22 |
| 6 | Chesterfield | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 23:20 | 3 | 22 |
| 7 | Salford | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 18:17 | 1 | 22 |
| 8 | Notts Co | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 23:15 | 8 | 21 |
| 9 | Cambridge Utd | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 16:13 | 3 | 21 |
| 10 | Barnet | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 16:13 | 3 | 20 |
| 11 | Crewe | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 17:16 | 1 | 19 |
| 12 | Fleetwood | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 19:19 | 0 | 19 |
| 13 | Bromley | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 19:17 | 2 | 18 |
| 14 | Colchester | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 21:18 | 3 | 17 |
| 15 | Barrow | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 11:13 | -2 | 17 |
| 16 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 14:21 | -7 | 17 |
| 17 | Oldham | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 10:10 | 0 | 15 |
| 18 | Tranmere | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 20:18 | 2 | 14 |
| 19 | Harrogate | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 15:20 | -5 | 14 |
| 20 | Accrington | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11:14 | -3 | 12 |
| 21 | Shrewsbury | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 10:20 | -10 | 12 |
| 22 | Cheltenham | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9:25 | -16 | 11 |
| 23 | Crawley | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10:22 | -12 | 9 |
| 24 | Newport | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 11:23 | -12 | 8 |
Promotion ~ League One
Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ National League
