Result
2:0
11/02/2026 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- League Two - Round 26
- Referee: Drysdale D. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 4 |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Viaplay |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 Norway | Viaplay |
 Slovakia | Nova Sport 4, Voyo |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 Turkey | Exxen |
 United-kingdom | Sky Go, Sky Sports UHD, Sky Sports+ |
 Usa | Paramount+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.65 | 0.46 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 49% | 51% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 0 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (289/400) | 76% (330/434) |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.65 | 0.46 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.68 | 0.36 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 0 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 21 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (289/400) | 76% (330/434) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 36% (26/73) | 40% (25/63) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 58% (70/121) | 66% (85/129) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 12% (3/26) | 38% (3/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.21 | 0.92 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 29 | 45 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 75% (24/32) | 60% (9/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 66 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 25 | 32 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.36 | 0.68 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.36 | -0.32 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 37', Tafazolli R. ↓, Batty J. ↑,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Scanlon J. ↓, Holman F. ↑,
- 46', Snowdon J. ↓, Palmer O. ↑,
- 60', Jamieson L. ↓, Nyakuhwa T. ↑,
- 60', Opoku N. ↓, Crole J. ↑,
- 63', 1 - 0, Holman F. ⚽, Hoilett J. (A),
- 66', 2 - 0, Thomas J. (Own goal),
- 67', Hoilett J. ↓, Knight-Lebel J. ↑,
- 77', Nichols T. ↓, Borland A. ↑,
- 78', Biggins H. ↓, Jarvis C. ↑,
- 88', Garner G. ↓, Lloyd B. ↑,
- 88', Spellman M. ↓, Driscoll-Glennon A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Swindon Town
62% | Draw
22.2% | Newport County
15.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Swindon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)Newport County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (-13.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Swindon Town that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (+3.5%)
Swindon Town - Newport County Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.51 ↑
(1.44) |
4.23 ↓
(4.32) |
5.8 ↓
(6.18) |
7.2%
(9.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Swindon Town - Newport County?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Swindon will win (votes: 11 - 84.6%). Newport will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Swindon: 65% – 100%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Swindon Town will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ National League).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 4.
- Recent performances by Swindon have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Newport is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Swindon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Swindon is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Swindon: Bodin B.
(Inactive)
Butterworth D.
(Inactive)
Glatzel P.
(Inactive)
Knight-Lebel J.
(Inactive)
Minturn H.
(Groin Injury)
Smith H.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Newport: Baker-Richardson C.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Newport: Kamwa B.
(Inactive)
Smith M.
(Inactive)
- In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 11 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:17. (average 1.2:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Swindon won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:5. (average 1.2:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Swindon Town won against Newport County?
Swindon Town has won 5 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Newport County won against Swindon Town?
Newport County has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Swindon Town - Newport County were as follows:
04.10.2025
Newport County
-
Swindon Town
0:1
24.01.2025
Newport County
-
Swindon Town
1:2
14.09.2024
Swindon Town
-
Newport County
4:0
03.02.2024
Newport County
-
Swindon Town
2:1
14.10.2023
Swindon Town
-
Newport County
2:0
Latest results of Swindon Town
Latest results of Newport County
English League Two Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bromley | 34 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 58:35 | 23 | 68 |
| 2 | Cambridge Utd | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 49:27 | 22 | 64 |
| 3 | MK Dons | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 63:34 | 29 | 62 |
| 4 | Swindon | 35 | 19 | 5 | 11 | 57:41 | 16 | 62 |
| 5 | Notts Co | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 52:33 | 19 | 61 |
| 6 | Crewe | 35 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 52:41 | 11 | 56 |
| 7 | Salford | 33 | 17 | 4 | 12 | 46:43 | 3 | 55 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 34 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 52:44 | 8 | 53 |
| 9 | Barnet | 35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 44:37 | 7 | 53 |
| 10 | Walsall | 33 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 42:36 | 6 | 53 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 33 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 46:37 | 9 | 52 |
| 12 | Colchester | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 48:35 | 13 | 49 |
| 13 | Accrington | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 37:36 | 1 | 46 |
| 14 | Oldham | 32 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 36:30 | 6 | 45 |
| 15 | Fleetwood | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 43:42 | 1 | 45 |
| 16 | Gillingham | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 41:41 | 0 | 44 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury | 35 | 10 | 8 | 17 | 34:54 | -20 | 38 |
| 18 | Cheltenham | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | 34:55 | -21 | 36 |
| 19 | Tranmere | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 46:59 | -13 | 35 |
| 20 | Bristol Rovers | 34 | 9 | 4 | 21 | 33:57 | -24 | 31 |
| 21 | Crawley | 35 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 33:56 | -23 | 28 |
| 22 | Barrow | 33 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 33:51 | -18 | 27 |
| 23 | Harrogate | 35 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 25:52 | -27 | 27 |
| 24 | Newport | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 32:60 | -28 | 25 |
Promotion ~ League One
Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ National League
