Sydney vs Melbourne Victory – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Australian A-League
Result
2:2
07/03/2026 at 03:35 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • A-League - Round 20
  • Referee: Keevers L. (Aus)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
asiaAsiaSPOTV 2 Asia
australiaAustralia10 Drama, Channel 10, Paramount+
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV
germanyGermanySportdigital FUSSBALL
hong-kongHong-kongM Plus Live, myTV SUPER
indiaIndiaFanCode, FanCode, Vision+
indonesiaIndonesiaSPOTV 2, Vidio
macaoMacaoMacau Cable TV 34 Football
malaysiaMalaysiaAstro Go
mongoliaMongoliaSPOTV 2
new-zealandNew-zealandSky Sport 4
philippinesPhilippinesSPOTV 2
singaporeSingaporeSPOTV 2
switzerlandSwitzerlandSunrise TV, Sunrise TV
thailandThailandSPOTV 2, True ID, True Premier Football 4
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomDiscovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 3
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
vietnamVietnamSPOTV 2
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
2.591.34
Ball possession
56%44%
Total shots
1817
Shots on target
66
Big chances
71
Corner kicks
127
Passes
84% (374/446)80% (289/360)
Yellow cards
22
Expected goals (xG)
2.591.34
xG on target (xGOT)
2.571.00
Total shots
1817
Shots on target
66
Shots off target
55
Blocked shots
76
Shots inside the box
1311
Shots outside the box
56
Hit the woodwork
10
Headed goals
10
Big chances
71
Corner kicks
127
Touches in opposition box
4323
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
01
Free kicks
69
Passes
84% (374/446)80% (289/360)
Long passes
64% (27/42)35% (14/40)
Passes in final third
69% (105/152)72% (99/138)
Crosses
17% (6/35)36% (5/14)
Expected assists (xA)
1.291.26
Throw ins
2019
Fouls
96
Tackles
67% (10/15)69% (9/13)
Duels won
4743
Clearances
1750
Interceptions
89
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
34
xGOT faced
1.002.57
Goals prevented
-1.000.57

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 15', Rawlins J. 🟨,
  • 34', 0 - 1, Mata J. ⚽,
  • 44', Grant R. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 57', Campuzano V. 🟨,
  • 58', Mata J. 🟨,
  • 68', Velupillay N. ↓, Grimaldi M. ↑,
  • 68', Vergos N. ↓, Nduka C. ↑,
  • 69', 0 - 2, Nduka C. ⚽, Valadon J. (A),
  • 70', Quintal T. ↓, Toure A. ↑,
  • 73', 1 - 2, Stamatelopoulos A. ⚽, Garuccio B. (A),
  • 75', 2 - 2, Arslan A. ⚽,
  • 83', Stella X. ↓, Genreau D. ↑,
  • 83', Jelacic K. ↓, Piscopo R. ↑,
  • 85', Roderick ↓, Inserra J. ↑,
  • 90+2', Stamatelopoulos A. ↓, Macallister M. ↑,
  • 90+2', Campuzano V. ↓, Walatee A. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Sydney
37.6%		Draw
26%		Melbourne Victory
36.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
38.2% 27.1% 34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9% 26.9% 35%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Sydney has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)
  • Melbourne Victory has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sydney than the current prediction. (+0.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Victory than the current prediction. (-1.4%)
    •

    Sydney - Melbourne Victory Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.51 ↑
    (2.41)    		 3.63 ↑
    (3.4)    		 2.59 ↓
    (2.65)    		 6%
    (8.6%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
    What is the prediction for Sydney - Melbourne Victory?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Sydney (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH 0 - Sydney (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Sydney will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Sydney (votes: 3 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals))
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sydney won 2.
    • Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
    • Melbourne Victory may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sydney won 12 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 38:26. (average 1.9:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Sydney won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 23:12. (average 2.1:1.1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Sydney - Melbourne Victory were as follows:
    26.01.2026 Melbourne Victory - Sydney 4:0
    22.11.2025 Sydney - Melbourne Victory 3:0
    24.01.2025 Melbourne Victory - Sydney 2:0
    28.12.2024 Sydney - Melbourne Victory 3:0
    26.01.2024 Melbourne Victory - Sydney 1:1
    Latest results of Sydney
    28.02.2026 Wellington Phoenix - Sydney 0:1 ✺
    21.02.2026 Sydney - Brisbane Roar 1:0 ✺
    17.02.2026 Sydney - Auckland FC 1:1 ✺
    14.02.2026 Sydney - Adelaide United 1:2 ✺
    06.02.2026 Auckland FC - Sydney 1:0 ✺
    Latest results of Melbourne Victory
    27.02.2026 Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United 1:1 ✺
    21.02.2026 Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory 1:3 ✺
    14.02.2026 Melbourne Victory - Brisbane Roar 1:1 ✺
    06.02.2026 Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory 2:3 ✺
    01.02.2026 Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne Victory 1:0 ✺
    Australian A-League Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Newcastle Jets22141746:331343
    2Auckland FC22116537:231439
    3Melbourne Victory22105738:281035
    4Adelaide United22105739:32735
    5Sydney FC22103929:23633
    6Macarthur FC2277828:36-828
    7Central Coast Mariners2176829:32-327
    8Wellington Phoenix2276933:41-827
    9Melbourne City2168722:28-626
    10Brisbane Roar22661022:29-724
    11Perth Glory22651125:35-1023
    12WS Wanderers22561126:34-821

          Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
          Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)

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