Result
0:3
25/02/2026 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Super League - Round 26
- Referee: Sanli H. (Tur)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.49 | 1.81 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 49% | 51% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 68% (226/332) | 68% (236/349) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.49 | 1.81 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 1.22 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 12 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 31 | 47 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 68% (226/332) | 68% (236/349) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 45% (42/94) | 34% (20/59) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 62% (71/115) | 61% (89/147) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (10/35) | 27% (9/33) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.90 | 1.97 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 24 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 7 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 69% (9/13) | 65% (13/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 63 | 74 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 62 | 30 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.22 | 1.01 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.78 | 1.01 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 24', Kryeziu M. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 3)
- 55', 0 - 1, Meichtry F. ⚽, Matoshi V. (A),
- 59', 0 - 2, Rastoder E. ⚽, Matoshi V. (A),
- 60', Jankewitz A. ↓, Golliard T. ↑,
- 60', Rohner F. ↓, Smith R. ↑,
- 65', Matoshi V. ↓, Reichmuth N. ↑,
- 65', Meichtry F. ↓, Imeri K. ↑,
- 76', Zuffi L. ↓, Schneider R. ↑,
- 76', Burkart N. ↓, Maluvunu E. ↑,
- 76', Labeau B. ↓, Dursun F. ↑,
- 76', Rastoder E. ↓, Ibayi C. ↑,
- 83', 0 - 3, Imeri K. ⚽, Dursun F. (A),
- 85', Montolio G. ↓, Heule M. ↑,
- 88', Sidler S. ↓, Essiam E. ↑,
Chances of winning
Winterthur
15.6% | Draw
19.3% | Thun
65% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Winterthur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Winterthur's form might have worsened.Thun has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Thun's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Winterthur than the current prediction. (+8.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Winterthur, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thun than the current prediction. (-12.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Thun, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Winterthur - Thun Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
5.96 ↑
(3.67) |
4.87 ↑
(3.78) |
1.45 ↓
(1.83) |
6.4%
(8.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Winterthur - Thun?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH +1 - Thun (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Winterthur (2.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Thun will win
(10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Thun will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Winterthur (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Thun (votes: 5 - 83.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 12 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )).
- Thun is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Winterthur won 2.
- Winterthur is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Thun is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Thun may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Thun is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Winterthur: Dansoko B.
(Inactive)
Diaby S.
(Inactive)
Luthi L.
(Thigh Injury)
Momoh F.
(Inactive)
Stillhart B.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Thun: Janjicic V.
(Inactive)
Ziswiler N.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Winterthur: Kasami P.
(Inactive)
Ulrich D.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Winterthur won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 19:19. (average 1.5:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Winterthur won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1.7:1.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Winterthur won against Thun?
Winterthur has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Thun won against Winterthur?
Thun has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Winterthur - Thun were as follows:
16.12.2025
Winterthur
-
Thun
1:4
28.10.2025
Thun
-
Winterthur
3:0
Latest results of Winterthur
Swiss Super League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Thun ✔ | 26 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 60:28 | 32 | 61 |
| 2 | St. Gallen | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 51:32 | 19 | 47 |
| 3 | Lugano | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 43:31 | 12 | 46 |
| 4 | Sion | 26 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 39:30 | 9 | 40 |
| 5 | Basel | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 39:34 | 5 | 40 |
| 6 | Young Boys | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 52:52 | 0 | 36 |
| 7 | Luzern | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 52:49 | 3 | 33 |
| 8 | Zurich | 26 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 39:50 | -11 | 31 |
| 9 | Lausanne | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 39:42 | -3 | 30 |
| 10 | Servette | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 44:51 | -7 | 28 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 34:47 | -13 | 21 |
| 12 | Winterthur | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 29:75 | -46 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )
Super League (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Thun is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
