Tokyo vs Cerezo Osaka – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

14/06/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Ajinomoto Stadium (Tokyo).

J1 League - Round 20
Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Optus Sport
India	FanCode, FanCode
Japan	DAZN Japan

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.16	1.65
Ball Possession
40%	60%
Total shots
21	12
Shots on target
5	6
Big Chances
4	2
Corner Kicks
4	7
Passes
78% (290/370)	84% (470/557)
Expected Goals (xG)
2.16	1.65
xG on target (xGOT)
1.77	1.60
Total shots
21	12
Shots on target
5	6
Shots off target
12	5
Blocked Shots
4	1
Shots inside the Box
14	8
Shots outside the Box
7	4
Hit the Woodwork
2	0
Big Chances
4	2
Corner Kicks
4	7
Touches in opposition box
29	25
Accurate through passes
1	1
Offsides
3	2
Free Kicks
10	17
Passes
78% (290/370)	84% (470/557)
Long passes
39% (22/57)	62% (36/58)
Passes in final third
64% (68/107)	79% (147/187)
Crosses
20% (2/10)	12% (2/17)
Expected assists (xA)
0.98	1.71
Throw-ins
23	25
Fouls
17	10
Tackles
59% (10/17)	80% (12/15)
Duels won
44	50
Clearances
31	14
Interceptions
14	9
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	1
Goalkeeper Saves
4	3
xGOT faced
1.60	1.77
Goals prevented
-0.40	-0.23

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Marcelo Ryan ⚽, Ko T. (A),
42', 1 - 1, Rafael Ratao ⚽, Kagawa S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Noborizato K. ↓, Takahashi N. ↑,
57', Vitor Bueno ↓, Nakajima M. ↑,
60', Anzai S. ↓, Tawaratsumida K. ↑,
60', Higashi K. ↓, Sato K. ↑,
66', Kagawa S. ↓, Tanaka S. ↑,
66', Thiago Andrade ↓, Homma S. ↑,
71', 1 - 2, Hatanaka S. ⚽, Fernandes L. (A),
75', Endo K. ↓, Nozawa L. ↑,
81', 2 - 2, Marcelo Ryan ⚽, Nozawa L. (A),
84', Kimoto Y. ↓, Oka T. ↑,
84', Marcelo Ryan ↓, Everton Galdino ↑,
86', Rafael Ratao ↓, Shibayama M. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Tokyo
31.3%

Draw
26.6%

Cerezo Osaka
42.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

27.8%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

27.6%

40.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tokyo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Cerezo Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tokyo than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Tokyo - Cerezo Osaka Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↑ (2.93)	3.52 ↑ (3.38)	2.23 ↓ (2.35)	6.6% (6.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

What is the prediction for Tokyo - Cerezo Osaka?

Users Predictions: Cerezo Osaka will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Cerezo Osaka will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League and 8).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tokyo won 2.
Tokyo is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Cerezo Osaka is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Cerezo Osaka may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
There will not play in Tokyo: Baek I. (Hamstring Injury)
There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Hirano Y. (Knee Injury) Homma S. (Forearm injury) Tanaka S. (Knee Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tokyo won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 27:19. (average 1.4:1).
Including home matches between the teams, Tokyo won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:9. (average 1.8:0.9).

How many head-to-head matches has Tokyo won against Cerezo Osaka?

Tokyo has won 3 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Cerezo Osaka won against Tokyo?

Cerezo Osaka has won 2 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Tokyo - Cerezo Osaka were as follows:

20.04.2025 Cerezo Osaka - Tokyo 1:1

08.12.2024 Tokyo - Cerezo Osaka 3:0

24.02.2024 Cerezo Osaka - Tokyo 2:2

06.08.2023 Cerezo Osaka - Tokyo 0:1

24.05.2023 Tokyo - Cerezo Osaka 0:0

Latest results of Tokyo

31.05.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Tokyo 3:0 ✺

25.05.2025 Tokyo - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0:3 ✺

21.05.2025 Shonan Bellmare - Tokyo 1:0 ✺

17.05.2025 Urawa Red Diamonds - Tokyo 3:2 ✺

10.05.2025 Tokyo - Vissel Kobe 1:0 ✺

Latest results of Cerezo Osaka

11.06.2025 Cerezo Osaka - Arterivo Wakayama 5:0 ✺

08.06.2025 Yokohama FC - Cerezo Osaka 4:0 ✺

04.06.2025 Cerezo Osaka - Yokohama FC 4:1 ✺

01.06.2025 Cerezo Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse 4:2 ✺

28.05.2025 Urawa Red Diamonds - Cerezo Osaka 0:0 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	24	14	4	6	34:22	12	46
2	Kashima Antlers	24	14	2	8	36:24	12	44
3	Kashiwa Reysol	24	12	8	4	33:23	10	44
4	Kyoto	24	12	6	6	40:29	11	42
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	24	13	3	8	29:18	11	42
6	Machida	24	12	4	8	34:25	9	40
7	Kawasaki Frontale	24	10	8	6	38:26	12	38
8	Urawa Reds	23	10	7	6	32:24	8	37
9	Cerezo Osaka	24	9	7	8	37:33	4	34
10	Gamba Osaka	24	10	4	10	29:31	-2	34
11	Avispa Fukuoka	23	8	7	8	21:23	-2	31
12	Okayama	24	8	6	10	20:22	-2	30
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	24	8	6	10	29:32	-3	30
14	FC Tokyo	24	8	5	11	27:34	-7	29
15	Nagoya Grampus	24	7	7	10	28:33	-5	28
16	Verdy	24	7	7	10	15:24	-9	28
17	Shonan Bellmare	24	6	6	12	20:37	-17	24
18	Yokohama F. Marinos	24	5	6	13	23:32	-9	21
19	Yokohama FC	24	5	4	15	14:30	-16	19
20	Albirex Niigata	24	4	7	13	24:41	-17	19

      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
      Relegation ~ J2 League