Result
0:3
20/09/2025 at 21:07 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 9
- Referee: Ortiz M. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
---|
Mexico | Amazon Prime Video |
Usa | NBC Universo, Peacock TV, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.99 | 2.45 |
Ball Possession |
---|
53% | 47% |
Total shots |
---|
18 | 19 |
Shots on target |
---|
4 | 11 |
Big Chances |
---|
1 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
7 | 6 |
Passes |
---|
88% (392/443) | 85% (349/411) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
2 | 3 |
Red Cards |
---|
1 | 1 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.99 | 2.45 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
0.47 | 3.56 |
Total shots |
---|
18 | 19 |
Shots on target |
---|
4 | 11 |
Shots off target |
---|
8 | 6 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
6 | 2 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
11 | 11 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
7 | 8 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 0 |
Headed Goals |
---|
0 | 1 |
Big Chances |
---|
1 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
7 | 6 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
21 | 20 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
0 | 0 |
Offsides |
---|
2 | 0 |
Free Kicks |
---|
9 | 17 |
Passes |
---|
88% (392/443) | 85% (349/411) |
Long passes |
---|
74% (23/31) | 58% (31/53) |
Passes in final third |
---|
76% (128/169) | 78% (68/87) |
Crosses |
---|
20% (5/25) | 50% (4/8) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
1.04 | 0.85 |
Throw-ins |
---|
17 | 14 |
Fouls |
---|
17 | 9 |
Tackles |
---|
80% (8/10) | 71% (12/17) |
Duels won |
---|
36 | 53 |
Clearances |
---|
15 | 24 |
Interceptions |
---|
11 | 9 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
1 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
8 | 4 |
xGOT faced |
---|
3.56 | 0.47 |
Goals prevented |
---|
0.56 | 0.47 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 21', 0 - 1, Paulinho ⚽,
- 24', 0 - 2, Gallardo J. ⚽, Vega A. (A),
- 42', Garcia L. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Tapias M. ↓, Cowell C. ↑,
- 46', Castillo J. ↓, Chicharito ↑,
- 50', Gonzalez F. 🟥,
- 54', Pereira F. 🟨,
- 54', Alvarez E. ↓, Gomez M. ↑,
- 57', 0 - 3, Vega A. ⚽, Castro N. (A),
- 67', Barbosa D. ↓, Simon S. ↑,
- 67', Angulo J. ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
- 68', Sandoval S. ↓, Ledezma R. ↑,
- 69', Campillo Del Campo D. 🟨,
- 70', Bruno Mendez 🟥,
- 73', Gallardo J. 🟨,
- 73', Ledezma R. 🟨,
- 76', Paulinho ↓, Morales R. ↑,
- 76', Vega A. ↓, Briseno A. ↑,
- 76', Govea O. ↓, Sepulveda G. ↑,
- 86', Castro N. ↓, Herrera H. ↑,
Chances of winning
Chivas Guadalajara 34% | Draw 27.5% | Toluca 38.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Chivas Guadalajara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chivas Guadalajara than the current prediction. (+1.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-0.9%)
Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
2.75 ↑ (2.52) |
3.43 ↑ (3.43) |
2.45 ↓ (2.52) |
6.3% (8.7%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 2.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Guadalajara may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Guadalajara: Aguirre D.
(Injury)
Alvarado R.
(Ankle Injury)
Mozo A.
(Knee Injury)
Pulido A.
(Muscle Injury)
Sepulveda L.
(Ankle Injury)
- There are questionable in Toluca: Helinho
(Injury)
Luan
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 5 matches, drew 12 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 23:19. (average 1.2:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Guadalajara won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:10. (average 1.3:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Chivas Guadalajara won against Toluca?
Chivas Guadalajara has won 2 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Chivas Guadalajara?
Toluca has won 2 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca were as follows:
15.02.2025
Toluca
-
Chivas Guadalajara
2:1
06.07.2024
Chivas Guadalajara
-
Toluca
0:0
11.05.2024
Toluca
-
Chivas Guadalajara
0:0
08.05.2024
Chivas Guadalajara
-
Toluca
1:0
30.01.2024
Chivas Guadalajara
-
Toluca
3:2
Latest results of Chivas Guadalajara
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Toluca | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 31:14 | 17 | 25 |
2 | Monterrey | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 23:17 | 6 | 25 |
3 | Club America | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 23:11 | 12 | 24 |
4 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21:12 | 9 | 24 |
5 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 19:9 | 10 | 19 |
6 | Juarez | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15:12 | 3 | 18 |
7 | Pachuca | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15:13 | 2 | 17 |
8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 19:11 | 8 | 16 |
9 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 14 |
10 | UNAM Pumas | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:17 | -3 | 13 |
11 | Club Leon | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10:18 | -8 | 12 |
12 | Atl. San Luis | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 16:18 | -2 | 10 |
13 | Santos Laguna | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 13:18 | -5 | 10 |
14 | Atlas | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 18:26 | -8 | 10 |
15 | Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11:20 | -9 | 9 |
16 | Mazatlan FC | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13:20 | -7 | 8 |
17 | Queretaro | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11:18 | -7 | 8 |
18 | Puebla | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9:26 | -17 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )