Result
0:3
20/09/2025 at 21:07 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 9
- Referee: Ortiz M. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video |
 Usa | NBC Universo, Peacock TV, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.99 | 2.45 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 53% | 47% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 11 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (392/443) | 85% (349/411) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.99 | 2.45 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.47 | 3.56 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 11 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 21 | 20 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (392/443) | 85% (349/411) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 74% (23/31) | 58% (31/53) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 76% (128/169) | 78% (68/87) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (5/25) | 50% (4/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.04 | 0.85 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 17 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 80% (8/10) | 71% (12/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 36 | 53 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 15 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 3.56 | 0.47 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.56 | 0.47 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 21', 0 - 1, Paulinho ⚽,
- 24', 0 - 2, Gallardo J. ⚽, Vega A. (A),
- 42', Garcia L. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Tapias M. ↓, Cowell C. ↑,
- 46', Castillo J. ↓, Chicharito ↑,
- 50', Gonzalez F. 🟥,
- 54', Pereira F. 🟨,
- 54', Alvarez E. ↓, Gomez M. ↑,
- 57', 0 - 3, Vega A. ⚽, Castro N. (A),
- 67', Barbosa D. ↓, Simon S. ↑,
- 67', Angulo J. ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
- 68', Sandoval S. ↓, Ledezma R. ↑,
- 69', Campillo Del Campo D. 🟨,
- 70', Bruno Mendez 🟥,
- 73', Gallardo J. 🟨,
- 73', Ledezma R. 🟨,
- 76', Paulinho ↓, Morales R. ↑,
- 76', Vega A. ↓, Briseno A. ↑,
- 76', Govea O. ↓, Sepulveda G. ↑,
- 86', Castro N. ↓, Herrera H. ↑,
Chances of winning
Chivas Guadalajara
34% | Draw
27.5% | Toluca
38.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Chivas Guadalajara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chivas Guadalajara than the current prediction. (+1.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-0.9%)
Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.75 ↑
(2.52) |
3.43 ↑
(3.43) |
2.45 ↓
(2.52) |
6.3%
(8.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 2.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Guadalajara may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Guadalajara: Aguirre D.
(Injury)
Alvarado R.
(Ankle Injury)
Mozo A.
(Knee Injury)
Pulido A.
(Muscle Injury)
Sepulveda L.
(Ankle Injury)
- There are questionable in Toluca: Helinho
(Injury)
Luan
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 5 matches, drew 12 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 23:19. (average 1.2:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Guadalajara won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:10. (average 1.3:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Chivas Guadalajara won against Toluca?
Chivas Guadalajara has won 2 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Chivas Guadalajara?
Toluca has won 2 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca were as follows:
15.02.2025
Toluca
-
Chivas Guadalajara
2:1
06.07.2024
Chivas Guadalajara
-
Toluca
0:0
11.05.2024
Toluca
-
Chivas Guadalajara
0:0
08.05.2024
Chivas Guadalajara
-
Toluca
1:0
30.01.2024
Chivas Guadalajara
-
Toluca
3:2
Latest results of Chivas Guadalajara
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Toluca | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 39:16 | 23 | 31 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 24:16 | 8 | 28 |
| 3 | Club America | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 27:13 | 14 | 27 |
| 4 | Monterrey | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 26:20 | 6 | 27 |
| 5 | Tigres UANL | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 27:13 | 14 | 26 |
| 6 | Pachuca | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 18:15 | 3 | 21 |
| 7 | Club Tijuana | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 26:17 | 9 | 20 |
| 8 | Guadalajara Chivas | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 20:18 | 2 | 20 |
| 9 | Juarez | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 18:17 | 1 | 19 |
| 10 | UNAM Pumas | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 16:20 | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Atl. San Luis | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 19:20 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Santos Laguna | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 15:21 | -6 | 13 |
| 13 | Atlas | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21:29 | -8 | 13 |
| 14 | Club Leon | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12:24 | -12 | 12 |
| 15 | Mazatlan FC | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15:23 | -8 | 11 |
| 16 | Queretaro | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 14:25 | -11 | 11 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 14:26 | -12 | 9 |
| 18 | Puebla | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14:32 | -18 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
