Chivas Guadalajara vs Toluca – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Mexican Liga MX Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca
Result
0:3
20/09/2025 at 21:07 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Liga MX - Apertura - Round 9
  • Referee: Ortiz M. (Mex)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video
usaUsaNBC Universo, Peacock TV, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.992.45
Ball Possession
53%47%
Total shots
1819
Shots on target
411
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
76
Passes
88% (392/443)85% (349/411)
Yellow Cards
23
Red Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
0.992.45
xG on target (xGOT)
0.473.56
Total shots
1819
Shots on target
411
Shots off target
86
Blocked Shots
62
Shots inside the Box
1111
Shots outside the Box
78
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
76
Touches in opposition box
2120
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
20
Free Kicks
917
Passes
88% (392/443)85% (349/411)
Long passes
74% (23/31)58% (31/53)
Passes in final third
76% (128/169)78% (68/87)
Crosses
20% (5/25)50% (4/8)
Expected assists (xA)
1.040.85
Throw-ins
1714
Fouls
179
Tackles
80% (8/10)71% (12/17)
Duels won
3653
Clearances
1524
Interceptions
119
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
84
xGOT faced
3.560.47
Goals prevented
0.560.47

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 2)
  • 21', 0 - 1, Paulinho ,
  • 24', 0 - 2, Gallardo J. , Vega A. (A),
  • 42', Garcia L. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Tapias M. , Cowell C. ,
  • 46', Castillo J. , Chicharito ,
  • 50', Gonzalez F. 🟥,
  • 54', Pereira F. 🟨,
  • 54', Alvarez E. , Gomez M. ,
  • 57', 0 - 3, Vega A. , Castro N. (A),
  • 67', Barbosa D. , Simon S. ,
  • 67', Angulo J. , Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ,
  • 68', Sandoval S. , Ledezma R. ,
  • 69', Campillo Del Campo D. 🟨,
  • 70', Bruno Mendez 🟥,
  • 73', Gallardo J. 🟨,
  • 73', Ledezma R. 🟨,
  • 76', Paulinho , Morales R. ,
  • 76', Vega A. , Briseno A. ,
  • 76', Govea O. , Sepulveda G. ,
  • 86', Castro N. , Herrera H. ,

Highlights

Official Live

Chances of winning


Chivas Guadalajara
34%
Draw
27.5%
Toluca
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
36.6% 26.9% 36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6% 26.2% 37.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Chivas Guadalajara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)
  • Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chivas Guadalajara than the current prediction. (+1.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-0.9%)
  • Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.75
    (2.52)
    3.43
    (3.43)
    2.45
    (2.52)
    6.3%
    (8.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • Preview Facts
    • A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 2.
    • Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
    • Guadalajara may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
    • There will not play in Guadalajara: Aguirre D. (Injury) Alvarado R. (Ankle Injury) Mozo A. (Knee Injury) Pulido A. (Muscle Injury) Sepulveda L. (Ankle Injury)
    • There are questionable in Toluca: Helinho (Injury) Luan (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 5 matches, drew 12 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 23:19. (average 1.2:1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Guadalajara won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:10. (average 1.3:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca were as follows:
    15.02.2025 Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara 2:1
    06.07.2024 Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca 0:0
    11.05.2024 Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara 0:0
    08.05.2024 Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca 1:0
    30.01.2024 Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca 3:2
    Latest results of Chivas Guadalajara
    Latest results of Toluca
    13.09.2025 Toluca - Puebla 3:1
    23.08.2025 Cruz Azul - Toluca 1:0
    20.08.2025 Toluca - Orlando City 0:1
    16.08.2025 Toluca - UNAM 1:1
    Mexican Liga MX Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Toluca1181231:141725
    2Monterrey1181223:17625
    3Club America1173123:111224
    4Cruz Azul1073021:12924
    5Tigres UANL1054119:91019
    6Juarez1153315:12318
    7Pachuca1152415:13217
    8Club Tijuana1044219:11816
    9Guadalajara Chivas1142516:17-114
    10UNAM Pumas1134414:17-313
    11Club Leon1133510:18-812
    12Atl. San Luis1131716:18-210
    13Santos Laguna1131713:18-510
    14Atlas1124518:26-810
    15Necaxa1123611:20-99
    16Mazatlan FC1115513:20-78
    17Queretaro1022611:18-78
    18Puebla111289:26-175

          Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
          Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )