Club León vs Toluca – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Mexican Liga MX Club León - Toluca
Result
2:4
04/10/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Liga MX - Apertura - Round 12
  • Referee: Valle J. (Mex)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports, Tubi TV
south-americaSouth-americaViX Latin America
usaUsaTUDN App, TUDN, Univision

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.832.52
Ball Possession
52%48%
Total shots
1317
Shots on target
46
Big Chances
27
Corner Kicks
52
Passes
92% (486/530)90% (449/498)
Yellow Cards
22
Expected Goals (xG)
1.832.52
xG on target (xGOT)
2.313.16
Total shots
1317
Shots on target
46
Shots off target
77
Blocked Shots
24
Shots inside the Box
1011
Shots outside the Box
36
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
27
Corner Kicks
52
Touches in opposition box
2724
Accurate through passes
02
Offsides
34
Free Kicks
126
Passes
92% (486/530)90% (449/498)
Long passes
63% (20/32)61% (30/49)
Passes in final third
78% (64/82)79% (103/130)
Crosses
35% (7/20)38% (5/13)
Expected assists (xA)
0.972.50
Throw-ins
1111
Fouls
612
Tackles
53% (8/15)60% (9/15)
Duels won
3435
Clearances
1617
Interceptions
86
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
12
xGOT faced
3.162.31
Goals prevented
-0.840.31

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 5', 0 - 1, Angulo J. , Castro N. (A),
  • 35', 1 - 1, Rodriguez J. (Pen),
  • 42', Pereira F. 🟨,
  • 42', Rodriguez J. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 3)
  • 48', 1 - 2, Paulinho , Vega A. (A),
  • 53', Cortizo J. 🟨,
  • 58', 1 - 3, Vega A. , Gallardo J. (A),
  • 62', Angulo J. , Ruiz M. ,
  • 69', Villa O. , Moreno I. ,
  • 69', Cortizo J. , Rodriguez E. ,
  • 69', 2 - 3, Alvarado A. , Moreno I. (A),
  • 72', Ramirez D. , Diaz I. ,
  • 75', Helinho , Barbosa D. ,
  • 76', 2 - 4, Paulinho , Simon S. (A),
  • 78', 🟨,
  • 81', Simon S. , Briseno A. ,
  • 82', Paulinho , Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ,
  • 82', Vega A. , Morales R. ,
  • 84', Alvarado A. , Fonseca N. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Club León
21%
Draw
22.2%
Toluca
56.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
29% 24.4% 46.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.6% 23.3% 48.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Club León has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Club León's form might have worsened.
  • Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Toluca's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Club León than the current prediction. (+6.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Club León, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-7.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Toluca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Club León - Toluca Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    4.66
    (3.2)
    4.38
    (3.8)
    1.69
    (1.99)
    3.4%
    (7.8%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
    What is the prediction for Club León - Toluca?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
  • Users Predictions: Toluca will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 68.36%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, León won 1.
    • León has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Toluca is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
    • Toluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Toluca is considered a favorite.
    • There will not play in León: Barreiro S. (Red Card)
    • There will not play in Toluca: Herrera H. (Red Card) Luan (Injury) del Villar E. (International duty)
    • There are questionable in León: Arcila D. (Injury) Blanco A. (Wrist Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, León won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 41:34. (average 2.1:1.7).
    • Including home matches between the teams, León won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 29:17. (average 2.6:1.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Club León - Toluca were as follows:
    08.02.2025 Club León - Toluca 3:3
    02.11.2024 Toluca - Club León 2:2
    03.02.2024 Toluca - Club León 4:1
    21.10.2023 Club León - Toluca 1:0
    29.01.2023 Toluca - Club León 0:0
    Latest results of Club León
    26.09.2025 Juárez - Club León 2:0
    23.09.2025 Club León - Mazatlan 2:2
    19.09.2025 Tijuana - Club León 5:0
    13.09.2025 Tigres UANL - Club León 0:0
    30.08.2025 Club León - Querétaro 3:0
    Latest results of Toluca
    27.09.2025 Toluca - Mazatlan 3:1
    24.09.2025 Toluca - Monterrey 6:2
    13.09.2025 Toluca - Puebla 3:1
    Mexican Liga MX Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Toluca ✔ 15103241:182333
    2Tigres UANL ✔ 1595131:141732
    3Cruz Azul ✔ 1595127:171032
    4Club America ✔ 1594231:161531
    5Monterrey ✔ 1593330:24630
    6Guadalajara Chivas1572624:20423
    7Pachuca1564521:19222
    8Club Tijuana1556426:19721
    9Juarez1555524:25-120
    10Santos Laguna1552820:24-417
    11Atl. San Luis1551923:24-116
    12Atlas1544724:33-916
    13UNAM Pumas1536617:22-515
    14Queretaro1542916:28-1214
    15Mazatlan FC1527619:27-813
    16Necaxa1534819:30-1113
    17Club Leon1534813:27-1413
    18Puebla15231019:38-199

          Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
          Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    Toluca is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
    Tigres UANL is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
    Cruz Azul is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
    Club America is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
    Monterrey is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)