Result
2:4
04/10/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 12
- Referee: Valle J. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
---|
Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports, Tubi TV |
South-america | ViX Latin America |
Usa | TUDN App, TUDN, Univision |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
1.83 | 2.52 |
Ball Possession |
---|
52% | 48% |
Total shots |
---|
13 | 17 |
Shots on target |
---|
4 | 6 |
Big Chances |
---|
2 | 7 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
5 | 2 |
Passes |
---|
92% (486/530) | 90% (449/498) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
2 | 2 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
1.83 | 2.52 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
2.31 | 3.16 |
Total shots |
---|
13 | 17 |
Shots on target |
---|
4 | 6 |
Shots off target |
---|
7 | 7 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
2 | 4 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
10 | 11 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
3 | 6 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 0 |
Headed Goals |
---|
0 | 1 |
Big Chances |
---|
2 | 7 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
5 | 2 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
27 | 24 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
0 | 2 |
Offsides |
---|
3 | 4 |
Free Kicks |
---|
12 | 6 |
Passes |
---|
92% (486/530) | 90% (449/498) |
Long passes |
---|
63% (20/32) | 61% (30/49) |
Passes in final third |
---|
78% (64/82) | 79% (103/130) |
Crosses |
---|
35% (7/20) | 38% (5/13) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
0.97 | 2.50 |
Throw-ins |
---|
11 | 11 |
Fouls |
---|
6 | 12 |
Tackles |
---|
53% (8/15) | 60% (9/15) |
Duels won |
---|
34 | 35 |
Clearances |
---|
16 | 17 |
Interceptions |
---|
8 | 6 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
1 | 2 |
xGOT faced |
---|
3.16 | 2.31 |
Goals prevented |
---|
-0.84 | 0.31 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 5', 0 - 1, Angulo J. ⚽, Castro N. (A),
- 35', 1 - 1, Rodriguez J. (Pen),
- 42', Pereira F. 🟨,
- 42', Rodriguez J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 3)
- 48', 1 - 2, Paulinho ⚽, Vega A. (A),
- 53', Cortizo J. 🟨,
- 58', 1 - 3, Vega A. ⚽, Gallardo J. (A),
- 62', Angulo J. ↓, Ruiz M. ↑,
- 69', Villa O. ↓, Moreno I. ↑,
- 69', Cortizo J. ↓, Rodriguez E. ↑,
- 69', 2 - 3, Alvarado A. ⚽, Moreno I. (A),
- 72', Ramirez D. ↓, Diaz I. ↑,
- 75', Helinho ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
- 76', 2 - 4, Paulinho ⚽, Simon S. (A),
- 78', 🟨,
- 81', Simon S. ↓, Briseno A. ↑,
- 82', Paulinho ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
- 82', Vega A. ↓, Morales R. ↑,
- 84', Alvarado A. ↓, Fonseca N. ↑,
Chances of winning
Club León 21% | Draw 22.2% | Toluca 56.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Club León has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Club León's form might have worsened.Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Toluca's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Club León than the current prediction. (+6.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Club León, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-7.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Toluca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Club León - Toluca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
4.66 ↑ (3.2) |
4.38 ↑ (3.8) |
1.69 ↓ (1.99) |
3.4% (7.8%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Club León - Toluca?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
Users Predictions:
Toluca will win
(8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, León won 1.
- León has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Toluca is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Toluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Toluca is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in León: Barreiro S.
(Red Card)
- There will not play in Toluca: Herrera H.
(Red Card)
Luan
(Injury)
del Villar E.
(International duty)
- There are questionable in León: Arcila D.
(Injury)
Blanco A.
(Wrist Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, León won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 41:34. (average 2.1:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, León won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 29:17. (average 2.6:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Club León won against Toluca?
Club León has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Club León?
Toluca has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Club León - Toluca were as follows:
08.02.2025
Club León
-
Toluca
3:3
02.11.2024
Toluca
-
Club León
2:2
03.02.2024
Toluca
-
Club León
4:1
21.10.2023
Club León
-
Toluca
1:0
29.01.2023
Toluca
-
Club León
0:0
Latest results of Club León
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Toluca | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 35:16 | 19 | 28 |
2 | Club America | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 26:11 | 15 | 27 |
3 | Monterrey | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 25:19 | 6 | 26 |
4 | Cruz Azul | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 22:15 | 7 | 25 |
5 | Tigres UANL | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 22:10 | 12 | 23 |
6 | Club Tijuana | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 23:13 | 10 | 20 |
7 | Pachuca | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16:13 | 3 | 20 |
8 | Juarez | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16:15 | 1 | 18 |
9 | Guadalajara Chivas | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18:18 | 0 | 17 |
10 | UNAM Pumas | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15:19 | -4 | 13 |
11 | Atlas | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21:27 | -6 | 13 |
12 | Club Leon | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12:22 | -10 | 12 |
13 | Mazatlan FC | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 15:21 | -6 | 11 |
14 | Queretaro | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 14:21 | -7 | 11 |
15 | Atl. San Luis | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 17:20 | -3 | 10 |
16 | Santos Laguna | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 13:21 | -8 | 10 |
17 | Necaxa | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11:21 | -10 | 9 |
18 | Puebla | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10:29 | -19 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )