Result
2:4
04/10/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 12
- Referee: Valle J. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports, Tubi TV |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | TUDN App, TUDN, Univision |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.83 | 2.52 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 92% (486/530) | 90% (449/498) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.83 | 2.52 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.31 | 3.16 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 27 | 24 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 92% (486/530) | 90% (449/498) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 63% (20/32) | 61% (30/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 78% (64/82) | 79% (103/130) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 35% (7/20) | 38% (5/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.97 | 2.50 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 6 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 53% (8/15) | 60% (9/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 34 | 35 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 3.16 | 2.31 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.84 | 0.31 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 5', 0 - 1, Angulo J. ⚽, Castro N. (A),
- 35', 1 - 1, Rodriguez J. (Pen),
- 42', Pereira F. 🟨,
- 42', Rodriguez J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 3)
- 48', 1 - 2, Paulinho ⚽, Vega A. (A),
- 53', Cortizo J. 🟨,
- 58', 1 - 3, Vega A. ⚽, Gallardo J. (A),
- 62', Angulo J. ↓, Ruiz M. ↑,
- 69', Villa O. ↓, Moreno I. ↑,
- 69', Cortizo J. ↓, Rodriguez E. ↑,
- 69', 2 - 3, Alvarado A. ⚽, Moreno I. (A),
- 72', Ramirez D. ↓, Diaz I. ↑,
- 75', Helinho ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
- 76', 2 - 4, Paulinho ⚽, Simon S. (A),
- 78', 🟨,
- 81', Simon S. ↓, Briseno A. ↑,
- 82', Paulinho ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
- 82', Vega A. ↓, Morales R. ↑,
- 84', Alvarado A. ↓, Fonseca N. ↑,
Chances of winning
Club León
21% | Draw
22.2% | Toluca
56.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Club León has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Club León's form might have worsened.Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Toluca's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Club León than the current prediction. (+6.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Club León, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-7.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Toluca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Club León - Toluca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.66 ↑
(3.2) |
4.38 ↑
(3.8) |
1.69 ↓
(1.99) |
3.4%
(7.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Club León - Toluca?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
Users Predictions:
Toluca will win
(8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, León won 1.
- León has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Toluca is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Toluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Toluca is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in León: Barreiro S.
(Red Card)
- There will not play in Toluca: Herrera H.
(Red Card)
Luan
(Injury)
del Villar E.
(International duty)
- There are questionable in León: Arcila D.
(Injury)
Blanco A.
(Wrist Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, León won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 41:34. (average 2.1:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, León won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 29:17. (average 2.6:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Club León won against Toluca?
Club León has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Club León?
Toluca has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Club León - Toluca were as follows:
08.02.2025
Club León
-
Toluca
3:3
02.11.2024
Toluca
-
Club León
2:2
03.02.2024
Toluca
-
Club León
4:1
21.10.2023
Club León
-
Toluca
1:0
29.01.2023
Toluca
-
Club León
0:0
Latest results of Club León
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Toluca ✔ | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 41:18 | 23 | 33 |
| 2 | Tigres UANL ✔ | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 31:14 | 17 | 32 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul ✔ | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 27:17 | 10 | 32 |
| 4 | Club America ✔ | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 31:16 | 15 | 31 |
| 5 | Monterrey ✔ | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 30:24 | 6 | 30 |
| 6 | Guadalajara Chivas | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 24:20 | 4 | 23 |
| 7 | Pachuca | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21:19 | 2 | 22 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 26:19 | 7 | 21 |
| 9 | Juarez | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 24:25 | -1 | 20 |
| 10 | Santos Laguna | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20:24 | -4 | 17 |
| 11 | Atl. San Luis | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 23:24 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Atlas | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 24:33 | -9 | 16 |
| 13 | UNAM Pumas | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 17:22 | -5 | 15 |
| 14 | Queretaro | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 16:28 | -12 | 14 |
| 15 | Mazatlan FC | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 19:27 | -8 | 13 |
| 16 | Necaxa | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 19:30 | -11 | 13 |
| 17 | Club Leon | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13:27 | -14 | 13 |
| 18 | Puebla | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 19:38 | -19 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Toluca is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Tigres UANL is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Cruz Azul is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Club America is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Monterrey is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
